St Mary's CA

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Friday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 07:44:42 -0700

After an "opening" day that went mostly according to form, the hope of many is that Friday's slate provides some upsets. And with some of the matchups providing a nice contrast in styles as well as talented players on mid-major squads who may not be household names just yet, there's a good chance that an upset does happen. Here's the schedule for today along with a game from each site that you should keep track of.

Columbus: (8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis
6:50 PM EST, TBS

Both of these teams have the potential to give Michigan State fits on Sunday, albeit for different reasons. Josh Pastner's Tigers were a team many expected to be in the Top 10 to start the season, but losses against the better teams on their non-conference schedule reuslted in Memphis likely being underseeded. Will Barton has been outstanding all season long, and the emergence of Chris Crawford has been another factor in their current run. The keys for Memphis are simple: make sound decisions without the basketball and make sure Tarik Black doesn't end up in early foul trouble.

Rick Majerus' Billikens get it done in a different way, as they're more comfortable with a game played in the half court. Kwamain Mitchell has played well at the point and despite his height Brian Conklin will battle inside for 40 minutes. SLU is one of the best coached teams in the tournament, so in that regards it may be safe to assume that at some point Saint Louis could have something special lined up Memphis especially if Barton gets rolling early. Both teams have been very good in regards to their efficiency numbers this season on both ends of the floor, which should lead to a tight contest. The team that does the better job of influencing the tempo of the game likely wins.

Other games in Columbus
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State; 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont; 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU Brooklyn; 9:20 PM EST (TBS)

Greensboro: (8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
1:40 PM EST, TBS

Xavier/Notre Dame is another contest to keep tabs on in Greensboro, but the first game of the day will be interesting in regards to how the Crimson Tide go about guarding Doug McDermott. With Tony Mitchell dismissed from the team a few weeks ago the most likely option for Anthony Grant is no longer present. But that doesn't mean that Alabama is without hope, as they allow opponents to shoot just 38.8% from the field. That's five percentage points better than Creighton, who's had issues defensively for much of the season. If McDermott and Antoine Young can get things going offensively the Bluejays should be able to create their kind of game.

But that's easier said than done, and they'll have to get stops at some point. Trevor Releford leads the way on the perimeter, and Alabama's going to need a Trevor Lacey or Levi Randolph to step up scoring-wise alongside him if they're to win. The battle in the paint between JaMychal Green and Gregory Echenique could be determined early if one of them gets into early foul trouble. The winner gets North Carolina and while most of the country likely hopes that it's Creighton who advances, they're going to need to bring a higher level of intensity on the defensive end if they're to move on.

Other games in Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Vermont; 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh; 7:15 PM EST (CBS)
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier; 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Nashville: (4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
7:20 PM EST, TNT

All four games in Nashville have the potential to produce wins by the lower-seeded team, so don't be surprised if the Bobcats give Michigan a run for their money. Point guard D.J. Cooper has played very well for John Groce, leading the team in both points and assists. Cooper was also a member of that team that knocked off Georgetown two years ago so the experience shouldn't be a concern either. Ohio's got some talented players alongside Cooper such as Ivo Baltic, Walter Offutt and perimeter shooter Nick Kellogg. The key for the Bobcats: defending the three.

Michigan may not have the most impressive percentage from beyond the arc (35.2%) but that doesn't deter John Beilein's team from taking the shot, as they score 36.8% of their points via the three. Trey Burke has been outstanding at the point for Michigan, and joining him on the perimeter are Stu Douglass, Tm Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak. If Jordan Morgan can control things in the paint that would bode well for the Wolverines as neither team is particularly good in the rebounding department. Ohio also forces more than 17 turnovers a game, but with Michigan averaging just 10.9 something has to give there. How well Ohio defends the three will likely determine the outcome.

Other games in Nashville
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas; 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure; 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(5) Temple vs. (12) USF; 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Omaha: (7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
7:27 PM EST, truTV

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the day due to the point guard position. Saint Mary's relies heavily on Matthew Dellavedova and rightfully so, as the WCC Player of the Year leads the team in both points and assists. On the other side is senior Lewis Jackson, who is one of the toughest players in college basketball. The Boilermakers need Jackson to keep Dellavedova out of his comfort zone on the floor, forcing him to both take challenged shots and make passes from tougher angles. If Jackson can do that the Boilers are more than capable of winning.

Also of note are seniors Robbie Hummel (Purdue) and Rob Jones (Saint Mary's), with the latter being virtually a guaranteed double-double for much of the season. Hummel's bounced back from two ACL tears to lead the Boilermakers in scoring, and he'll have to continue that today. The Gaels also have Brad Waldow inside, and off the bench Clint Steindl can make teams pay with his ability to knock down the perimeter shot. Having Stephen Holt go down didn't derail Saint Mary's on their way to the WCC regular season and tournament titles, and they're more than capable of getting to the Sweet 16 as well.

Other games in Omaha
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia; 2:10 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Saint Mary's vs Purdue: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 06:20:42 -0700

(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Purdue: Midwest Region

Records

Saint Mary’s 27-5, 14-2 WCC (Regular-season and Conference Tournament Champions)

Purdue 21-12, 10-8 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 7:27 p.m. Friday

TV: TruTV

Location: CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Neb.

Winner will face: (2) Kansas or (15) Detroit, Sunday

Rankings

Saint Mary’s No. 24 AP; No. 16 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Saint Mary’s 30

Purdue 43

Line: St. Mary’s -1½ (O/U 140)

Players to Watch

Saint Mary’s: G Matthew Dellavedova, 6-4 Jr. (15.6 ppg, 6.4 apg, 36% 3s); F Rob Jones, 6-6 Sr. (14.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 2.3 apg); G Stephen Holt, 6-4 So. (10.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg). Holt missed the WCC Tournament with an ankle injury, but all indications are he will play on Friday. Holt is an outstanding all-around player with game highs of 23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and five steals.

Purdue: F Robbie Hummel, 6-8 Sr. (16.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.2 bpg); G Lewis Jackson, 5-9 Sr. (10.3 ppg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg); G/F D.J. Byrd, 6-5 Jr. (8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 43.8% 3s). Byrd was a big fact in the Boilermakers’ late push that got them in the tournament. He was 34-for-74 (46 percent) in his last 10 games.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Saint Mary’s: Dellavedova is an excellent playmaker with a lot of weapons around him. Six different Gaels average at least 7.9 points, including three in double figures. St. Mary’s shoots 47.5 percent from the field and 35 percent from deep, both solid numbers. Their 241 3-pointers made led the WCC and five different St. Mary’s players made at least 27 3s during the season. The Gaels have gotten to the foul line 688 times and shoot 72.7 percent while there. They turn the ball over just 11.6 times per game and their 1.37-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is 11^th-best in the country. They also out-rebounded opponents by 6.4 per game.

Purdue: Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in the country. This team, talent-wise, has no business in the NCAA Tournament, but Painter found a way. Hummel is a great go-to scorer and Jackson is a great floor leader. Purdue leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.58-to-1. Purdue forces 4.1 more turnovers than it commits per game. The Boilermakers have been shooting well from the outside since the beginning of February. They have shot worse than 38 percent from deep only once in the last 10 games, including 25-of-51 in the Big Ten Tournament. The Boilermakers haven’t lost a first-round NCAA game since 1993, having won 13 straight.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Saint Mary’s: This group of Gaels has almost no NCAA Tournament experience. St. Mary’s perimeter defense is average, at best. Their 36.1 3-point percentage allowed could be a factor against a Purdue team that has been shooting well. St. Mary’s only forces 12 turnovers per game and get only seven steals per contest. Don’t count on a lot of easy baskets against a Boilermaker team that rarely coughs it up. Jackson is a great 1-on-1 defender and could take Dellavedova out of his game.

Purdue: Purdue has one of the worst inside games of any team in the tournament. Hummel defends and rebounds, but he would prefer to be on the perimeter. Travis Carroll, Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson have almost no hope of slowing Jones and Brad Waldow. Although they’ve been better of late, the Boilermakers have been known to go through some scoring draughts. A late dry spell cost them a chance to upset Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

The Bottom Line: This should be a great, great game of contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Not sure what to make of the line however. What I do know is this. Vegas apparently made Purdue the favorite in the hopes that people would place their hard-earned money on St. Mary’s. The line has moved 3½ points in two days (from Purdue -2 to St. Mary’s -1½). My rule is, when in doubt, go opposite of where the money’s going.

The Pick: St. Mary’s 83, Purdue 82

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Saint Mary's Assistant Rick Croy

Jon Teitel — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 09:12:47 -0800

In his latest NCAA tournament interview CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Saint Mary's assistant coach Rick Croy, as the Gaels followed up their WCC regular season title with a tournament title. This season marks the first time in more than 20 years that the Gaels have won both titles, and led by seniors Matthew Dellavedova and Rob Jones they could be hanging around the NCAA tournament for a while this year.

Jon Teitel: You hold the San Francisco State school record with 167 career made three-pointers. What is your secret for three-point shooting?

Rick Croy: A whole lot of practice and a whole lot of belief. There are only a few guys in the country who are not streaky...and they are getting paid in the NBA.

JT: In 2002 at age 25 you became the youngest Division I top assistant coach in the country for John Masi at UC Riverside. Did you feel your age was an advantage or a disadvantage on the sideline?

RC: I felt it was an advantage because I had a really good relationship with our players. I was previously a grad assistant with John, so I was familiar with his program. We were in a tough situation as we were making the leap to Division I, so there were some great challenges.

JT: You won the 2008 California state title as coach at Citrus College. What did it mean to you to win the title?

RC: It meant that all the players we recruited from the first year that I got there in 2005 had made a lot of sacrifices, as did all the assistant coaches we had. Success is a cumulative effect: we stood on the shoulders of those who came before us and we got a little better each year. It was a special season, as we went about three and a half months without getting beat.

JT: Coach Randy Bennett is the winningest coach in school history. What makes him such a great coach, and what is the most important thing you ever learned from him?

RC: There are two things that make him great: he has a tremendous work ethic and has great patience and poise. He never lets the team get too high or too low, and our work ethic comes directly from him.

JT: Despite winning 25 games last year your team was not given an at-large berth by the NCAA selection committee, and you had a one-point loss to Kent State in the NIT after Justin Greene made a go-ahead layup with three seconds left: how devastating was that loss, and how excited are you to not have to sweat out another Selection Sunday?

RC: It was a tough loss. Some people thought that our heads were down after not making the NCAA tournament, but we were excited to try to get to MSG and win the NIT. We played pretty well against Kent State but had a real nasty three minutes to finish the game. It just shows you how fragile a game can be. It hurt our seniors a lot, but it has motivated our current group of players and has been in the back of our minds all season.

JT: You lost a pair of road/neutral games earlier this year to ranked teams (Baylor (in Las Vegas) and Murray State). What did you learn from those two losses that will help you in March?

RC: They were very different losses. We came out of the Baylor game thinking that we had a great team that could compete against the best teams in the country. I think we hit a wall against Murray State. We count on a few guys to do a whole lot of things, and we had some roles in flux with Stephen Holt out with a knee injury.

JT: In the past few weeks Matthew Dellavedova has been named Academic All-American, WCC Player of the Year and WCC tournament MVP. What makes him such a great player, and where does he rank among the best you have ever coached?

RC: He is a very unique person who sees the game about 2-3 plays ahead of anyone else. I never saw Larry Bird play in person, but Matthew has a tremendous work ethic and is a very tough leader. He is the kind of kid who will come in on a Monday morning and tell you about the finance book he read; not for a class, but just because he was interested in it. He is the best competitor I have ever coached.

JT: You had a four-point overtime win over Gonzaga in the WCC tournament title game. What did Coach Bennett tell the team to help them stay focused after Elias Harris made a three with two seconds left in regulation to send it to overtime?

RC: It comes back to our leadership. That game was a grind with both teams playing great. It was tough to be up by five with 15-20 seconds left and then have some tough plays go against us, but we still had our confidence and felt pretty good as a coaching staff. By the time we got to the huddle Dellavedova and Rob Jones had already talked to the team and they were ready to get back out there. We have created so many special memories this year.

JT: Your wife Jamie played basketball and volleyball at Saint Mary's. Who is the best athlete in the family?

RC: She is, so I am hoping that our two kids get her athleticism. It is not even close!

JT: What seed do you think you guys deserve, and what kind of team would you matchup against the best?

RC: I think we deserve something in the 4-7 range. One of our strengths is that we can play at different paces. We can play inside or use our guards, so we are not too concerned with who we end up drawing: we are just pumped to be in the tournament.

2012 All High-Major Team: CollegeHoops.net

CHN — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 22:39:54 -0800

Player of the Year Doug McDermott, only a sophomore, highlights CollegeHoops.net's 2012 All High-Major Team. McDermott averaged 23 ppg while shooting over 60% from the floor in leading Creighton to an MVC Tournament title.

McDermott is joined on the First Team by fellow sophomores Mike Moser of UNLV and Will Barton of Memphis. Matthew Dellavedova of Saint Mary's and Ramone Moore of Temple round out the squad.

CollegeHoops.net All High-Major Teams were voted on by staffers Shawn Siegel, Raphielle Johnson, Greg Mengelt, and Jon Teitel. The High-Major Team is comprised of players in the Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conference.

Last year's winner was BYU's Jimmer Fredette.

High-Major Player of the Year: F Doug McDermott, Creighton, So

First Team High-Major

G Matthew Dellavedova, Saint Mary's, Jr
G Ramone Moore, Temple, Sr
F Doug McDermott, Creighton, So
F Will Barton, Memphis, So
F Mike Moser, UNLV, So

Second Team High-Major

G Deonte Burton, Nevada, So
G Jamaal Franklin, San Diego St, So
F Wendell McKines, New Mexico St, Sr
F Andrew Nicholson, Saint Bonaventure, Sr
F Drew Gordon, New Mexico, Sr

Third Team High-Major

G Tu Holloway, Xavier, Sr
G Khalif Wyatt, Temple, Jr
F Noah Hartsock, BYU, Sr
F Garrett Stutz, Wichita St, Sr
F Rob Jones, Saint Mary's, Sr

Fourth Team High-Major

G Kevin Dillard, Dayton, Jr
G Joe Ragland, Wichita St, Sr
F Chris Gaston, Fordham, Jr
F Cameron Moore, UAB, Sr
F Kyle Weems, Missouri St, Sr

Poll: Which West Coast Team is Most Dangerous in March?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 08:31:32 -0800

Saint Mary's Makes History: Monday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 00:52:35 -0800

VCU jumped out to a big lead in the first half, holding on to beat Drexel for the CAA title.

1. Saint Mary's rebounds from a Gonzaga rally to force overtime, beating the Zags to win the WCC crown.
Both late title games featured wild comebacks to force overtime, but ultimately the team that could have been too crushed to rebound ended up winning. Elias Harris scored the final five points of regulation for Gonzaga, including a three-pointer in the final seconds to send the WCC title game into overtime, but his efforts wouldn't be enough as Saint Mary's won 78-74. Randy Bennett's team made history with the win, as it marks the first time in school history that the Gaels have won the regular season title outright and won the conference tournament in the same season.

Matthew Dellavedova scored 22 points and dished out four assists to lead the Gaels and Rob Jones added 18 and nine boards, but Jorden Page was just as important. Page scored 16 points on a night that saw Gonzaga's guards, most notably Kevin Pangos (3-for-18 FG), struggle while their big men played well. Harris finished with 22 points and 13 rebounds, and both Robert Sacre' (17 points) and Sam Dower (14 points) reached double figures. Saint Mary's out-rebounded the Bulldogs by four and outscored them by five at the foul line, but ultimately it was Gonzaga's three-point shooting (5-for-22) that caught up with them. Both teams will dance, and Saint Mary's likely improved their seeding with the result as they can now claim two wins over the Bulldogs this season.

2. Davidson finds away to survive Western Carolina despite some poor late-game execution.
Saint Mary's issues late in regulation had nothing on Davidson's, as the Wildcats looked nothing like the team that ran through the SoCon during the regular season. There were turnovers as well as silly fouls of jump shooters, but thanks to the efforts of De'Mon Brooks, Jake Cohen and JP Kulhman the Wildcats survived 93-91 in double overtime. Brooks and Kuhlman scored 19 points apiece while Cohen and Nik Cochran added 17 and 16 respectively, and Clint Mann added ten points off the bench. WCU, who entered the game having won seven straight games, had three players score 20 points or more but it wouldn't be enough to get them into the NCAA tournament.

Keaton Cole led the Catamounts with 21 points, and Tawaski King (ten rebounds) and Harouna Mutombo (seven rebounds, four assists and three steals) scored 20 apiece. Davidson shot 52.9% from the field but got themselves in trouble with the turnovers (15 total) and 5-for-21 night from beyond the arc. But it would be wise to not write off the Wildcats due to this performance, as Bob McKillop's team plays under control in most instances. Just so happened that they ran into a team that could speed up their thought process and force things to happen, and it very nearly got Davidson beat.

3. Loyola (MD) completes a long journey, going from 1-27 to an NCAA tournament berth.
In Scott Hicks' final season in charge the Loyola Greyhounds went an embarrassing 1-27, a clear indication that change is needed. Jimmy Patsos was hired and from there he began to rebuild the program, and the goal of getting to the NCAA tournament was final achieved on Monday night. Loyola ramped things up defensively in the second half, pressuring full-court on made basket, which negated the Stags' advantage inside. The Greyhounds went on to win 48-44 due to both their defense and the versatility of tournament MVP Erik Etherly, who finished with ten points, seven rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals.

Ryan Olander and Rakim Sanders both reached double figures but they combined to shoot just 6-for-25 from the field, and point guard Desmond Wade wasn't a whole lot better as he shot 1-for-5. Loyola limited the Stags to just 28.8% shooting for the game and 14 second-half points. While Patsos tends to be the center of attention from a media standpoint when the Greyhounds are playing, it's also important to recognize that there's a good team at Patsos' disposal as well. If Loyola can get the right matchup with a 14 or 15-seed, they've got the ability to throw a scare into someone.

Quick Hitters

1. The top four seeds in the Sun Belt are all gone before the final, with three-seed Denver being the last to go. Western Kentucky knocked off the Pioneers 67-63 in the second semifinal in Hot Springs, setting up a date with North Texas for the title. The Mean Green beat Arkansas State in the first semifinal.

2. There was also an upset in the Summit League semis as top-seed Oral Roberts lost to Western Illinois 54-53. Dominique Morrison led the Golden Eagles with 23 points, but his teammates shot just 11-for-36 from the field. Terell Parks led the Leathernecks with 14 points and eight rebounds, and Ceola Clark III added 11 points. WIU will take on two-seed South Dakota State in Tuesday's title game, as the Jackrabbits beat Southern Utah 63-47.

3. Two of the four road teams in the first round of the MAC tournament found a way to win, with Northern Illinois knocking off Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan upsetting Bowling Green. The first half between NIU and EMU featured just 29 points (18-11 NIU) and 17 combined turnovers. As for CMU, a Derek Jackson three with 1:40 remaining put the Chippewas up for good and Austin McBroom scored a team-high 20 points.

4. It was a busy day on the coaching carousel as Winthrop decided not the bring back Randy Peele, and Miami (OH) head coach Charlie Coles retired following the Redhawks' 60-53 loss at Toledo in a MAC tournament first round game. One name that has already been mentioned in regards to the Miami (OH) job is Arizona associate head coach James Whitford, as he spent 11 years on Coles' staff with eight of those being as the top assistant.

5. Two other coaching moves that didn't surprise many were Brown deciding not to renew Jesse Agel's contract, and UNCG removed Wes Miller's interim tag. Miller's the youngest head coach in college basketball, but his promotion sparked the Spartans run to the North Division title in the SoCon.

Predictions: CAA, MAAC, Southern, WCC Finals

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:22:41 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's four key championship games. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

CAA CHAMPIONSHIP: AT RICHMOND, VA.

(1) Drexel (27-5, 16-2) vs. (2) Virginia Commonwealth (27-6, 15-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Drexel 64-58. RPI: Drexel 65, VCU 66. Analysis: With 35 wins in their last 36 games combined, the Dragons and Rams should both be in the NCAA Tournament. However, neither will want to leave that up to the Selection Committee. Line: VCU -2. Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 57, Drexel 53.

MAAC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT SPRINGFIELD, MASS.

(2) Loyola (Md.) (23-8, 13-5) vs. (4) Fairfield (19-13, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 13 – Loyola 66-63*; Feb. 12 – Fairfield 68-51. RPI: Loyola 84, Fairfield 111. Analysis: The Stags are finally playing like they were expected to all season, but Loyola has been the more consistent team through the season. Line: Fairfield -2. Pick: Loyola 68, Fairfield 64.

SOUTHERN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(1S) Davidson (24-7, 16-2) vs. (3N) Western Carolina (17-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Davidson 88-67. RPI: Davidson 68, Western Carolina 216. Analysis: Aside from Davidson, the SoCon was really bad this year. This won’t be close. Line: Davidson -12½. Pick: Davidson 85, Western Carolina 64.

WCC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) Saint Mary’s (26-5, 14-2) vs. (2) Gonzaga (25-5, 13-3)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Saint Mary’s 83-62; Feb. 9 – Gonzaga 73-59. RPI: Saint Mary’s 33, Gonzaga 23. Analysis: Saint Mary’s just isn’t the same team with Stephen Holt – and the Bulldogs are playing really well. Line: Gonzaga -1½. Pick: Gonzaga 80, Saint Mary’s 72.

SUMMIT LEAGUE SEMIFINALS: AT SIOUX FALLS, S.D.

(1) Oral Roberts (27-5, 17-1) vs. (5) Western Illinois (17-13, 9-9)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Oral Roberts 71-70 (2OT)*; Feb. 11 – Oral Roberts 61-51. RPI: Oral Roberts 41, Western Illinois 188. Analysis: Oral Roberts should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but the Eagles will play like their lives are on the line. Line: Oral Roberts -8. Pick: Oral Roberts 67, Western Illinois 56.

(2) South Dakota State (25-7, 15-3) vs. (6) Southern Utah (14-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – South Dakota State 75-68*; Feb. 4 – South Dakota State 66-56. RPI: South Dakota State 58, Southern Utah 244. Analysis: Nice comeback win for the Thunderbirds against Oakland on Sunday, but that’s as far as it goes. Line: South Dakota State -12. Pick: South Dakota State 70, Southern Utah 54.

SUN BELT SEMIFINALS: AT HOT SPRINGS, ARK.

(9) Arkansas State (13-19, 6-10) vs. (5) North Texas (16-13, 9-7)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Arkansas State 75-72; Jan. 28 – North Texas 76-64. RPI: North Texas 200, Arkansas State 243. Analysis: Arkansas State used the second-day advantage to knock off the top seed, but playing a third straight day is exponentially tougher. Line: North Texas -1. Pick: North Texas 71, Arkansas State 63.

(3) Denver (21-8, 11-5) vs. (7) Western Kentucky (12-18, 7-9)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Denver 78-65. RPI: Denver 84, Western Kentucky 214. Analysis: Denver’s last six wins have been by double-figures. This game will be no different. Line: Denver -8½. Pick: Denver 69, Western Kentucky 57.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 128-94-3

Monday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 10:01:55 -0800

WCC: #1 Saint Mary's vs. #2 Gonzaga, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

The top two teams in the WCC meet in Las Vegas, and it should be fun as the two teams don't care much for each other. Gonzaga won 11 straight WCC regular season titles before Saint Mary's grabbed this year's crown, and that should spice things up even more. Mark Few's Bulldogs played very well on Saturday night in their semifinal win over BYU, with Kevin Pangos going off for 30 points to lead the way. The Gaels had a little more trouble in their semifinal, as a talented San Francisco team gave them all they wanted before Randy Bennett's team pulled away late.

With second and third-round games being played in Portland this season, the winner of the WCC's automatic bid could lay claim to a protected seed there given the struggles of the Pac-12. Saint Mary's will look to counter Pangos with veteran point guard Matthew Dellavedova, who can also fill it up when left alone on the perimeter. He's been a constant for the Gaels in both meetings with the Bulldogs, which the two teams split with the home team winning both. The Australian averaged 23 points per game against Gonzaga this season, but the key for Saint Mary's will be how effective forward Rob Jones can be.

Jones scored just two points in the Saint Mary's win over Gonzaga, with the Gaels being able to withstand that thanks to 17 points and ten boards from redshirt freshman Brad Waldow. But in the 73-59 loss in Spokane, Jones and Waldow were kept in check on the glass (ten combined rebounds to 21 in the first meeting), and guard Stephen Holt went scoreless as well. Page is going to be a key figure on the perimeter tonight, because it's not just Pangos that the Gaels have to worry about.

Junior wing Guy Landry Edi has reached double figures in two of the last three games, most recently scoring 11 against BYU. The athleticism that both he and freshman Gary Bell have can make for tough matchups, especially when the Bulldogs can get out and run. Add in forwards Elias Harris and Robert Sacre, and Saint Mary's will have multiple areas they need to take care of in order to win. Pangos scored 27 points in the second meeting between the two but the contributions of those two can't be overlooked, as they combined for 22 points and 19 rebounds. Gonzaga's going to need more of the same if they're to take another title back to Spokane.

CAA: #1 Drexel vs. #2 VCU, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
When two teams with 27 wins apiece still aren't considered a lock for the NCAA tournament there's no real need to state just how important that title game may be. That's the situation that the top two seeds in the CAA find themselves in going into Monday's title game, because while both have the look of a tournament team on the court the resume is considered by some to be lacking when it comes to strength of schedule numbers. Drexel won the lone regular season meeting (64-58) but that game was played way back on January 8th, and both teams have improved a great deal since then.

Freshman Damion Lee has been outstanding for the Dragons, helping out the likes of Chris Fouch, Samme Givens and Frantz Massenat. VCU's youngsters have become more comfortable in their roles, as has senior wing Bradford Burgess. There will be a lot on the line and a nice contrast of styles as well, with the Rams looking to pressure all 94 feet and Bruiser Flint's squad playing a half-court defense befitting of his name. The winner won't have to spend the next six days worrying about their fate, while the loser may have to endure a few sleepless nights.

MAAC: #4 Fairfield vs. #2 Loyola (MD), 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fairfield pulled off the upset of the tournament as they beat top-seed Iona in the semis, but even with Derek Needham out for the season (broken foot) was it really that big of an upset? Sydney Johnson's Stags are talented and they have depth, led by senior forwards Ryan Olander and Rakim Sanders. Houston transfer Desmond Wade has played well at the point, and a team that struggled to find its was under a first-year head coach early in the season has rounded into form at just the right time. As for Jimmy Patsos' Greyhounds, they've got depth as well and guard Dylon Cormier is one of the best players in the MAAC. Loyola also features the versatile Erik Etherly, Robert Olson and MAAC 6th Man of the Year Justin Drummond. Look for this one to be a tight affair as the two teams split their regular season meetings with the road team winning both.

MAC: # 12 Northern Illinois at # 5 Eastern Michigan, 7:00 p.m.
# 9 Ball State at # 8 Western Michigan, 7:00 p.m.
# 10 Miami at # 7 Toledo, 7:00 p.m.
# 11 Central Michigan at # 6 Bowling Green, 7:00 p.m.

The Mid-American Conference changed up their tournament format before the season, doing away with divisional seeding and giving the top two seeds byes to the semifinals. That means we won't see either Akron or Buffalo until Friday night, and six of the eight teams playing in the first round come from the West Division. Eastern Michigan was the lone team in the West to finish with a winning conference record, which is a testament to what first-year head coach Rob Murphy has been able to do with the program. But the second place team in the division, Toledo, needs to be careful with ten-seed Miami (OH), as forward Julian Mavunga ranks among the best players in the MAC. The four winners advance to Cleveland, but it's difficult to figure out if any of these teams can truly do some damage once they get there.

SoCon: #3N Western Carolina vs. #1S Davidson, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Western Carolina has won seven straight games, which makes them a dangerous foe for top-seed Davidson. However, Bob McKillop's team has been the class of the SoCon and with forwards Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks leading the way it's easy to see why. Harouna Mutombo leads four Catamounts in double figures with an average of 13.7 points per game, and that balance is going to be key if WCU is to have any shot at knocking off the Wildcats. Davidson won the lone regular season meeting 88-67, outscoring the Catamounts by 18 from beyond the arc and by 15 from the foul line. Those margins need to be close tonight.

Summit League: #1 Oral Roberts vs. #4 Western Illinois, 7:00 p.m.
#2 South Dakota State vs.#6 Southern Utah, 9:30 p.m.

Southern Utah is the lone team not in the top four to advance to the semis as they knocked off three-seed Oakland on Sunday night. The Thunderbirds now get to take on South Dakota State, who is led by guard Nate Wolters. Wolters handles his many responsibilities very well in leading the Jackrabbits, and if Southern Utah doesn't have an answer for him it's going to be a long night for them. SDSU averages just two more possessions per game but they're far more efficient, and they average 12 more points per game as well. In the first semi top-seed Oral Roberts takes on Western Illinois, a team they swept during the regular season but their win at WUI was by just one point. Dominique Morrison shot just 2-for-11 from the field in their quarterfinal on Saturday, but he did score 27 points in the first meeting between these two.

Sun Belt: #9 Arkansas State vs. #5 North Texas, 7:00 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)
#3 Denver vs. #7 Western Kentucky, 9:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)

Neither of the top two seeds reached the semis with both Middle Tennessee and UALR falling in Sunday's quarterfinals, which in theory opens the door for three-seed Denver. But given the nature of the Sun Belt tournament all that did was guarantee the Pioneers the right to wear their home whites the rest of the event. Joe Scott's Pioneers take on WKU in the second semifinal, and Ray Harper's Hilltoppers are playing well as they've won four straight. Guard Derrick Gordon is going to be a star in the Sun Belt, but the Hilltoppers dropped their lone meeting with Denver by 13 (78-65).

The first semifinal features North Texas, who more than a few people picked to win the conference tournament based on the presence of Tony Mitchell. Mitchell averages 14.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, and it's a safe assumption that the Missouri transfer will have Arkansas State's attention from the start. John Brady's Red Wolves knocked off top-seed Middle Tennessee, but they can struggle offensively.

Semifinals Predictions: Horion, MVC, Patriot, WCC

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 10:16:07 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

HORIZON LEAGUE SEMIFINALS: AT VALPARAISO, IND.

(2) Cleveland State (22-9, 12-6) vs. (3) Detroit (20-13, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Cleveland State 66-61*; Feb. 23 – Cleveland State 77-64. RPI: Cleveland State 82, Detroit 157. Analysis: With D’Aundray Brown expected to make his return tonight, stay away from this one. He may light up the Titans and he may cause a rift in chemistry – as newly returning players often do for a game or two. Line: Cleveland State -1. Pick: Cleveland State 64, Detroit 62.

(1) Valparaiso (21-10, 14-4) vs. (5) Butler (20-13, 11-7)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Valparaiso 77-71 (OT)*; Feb. 24 – Valparaiso 71-59. RPI: Valparaiso 95, 112. Analysis: Oh-oh! Butler’s getting hot again at the right time. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a game in March since 2009. Still, tough to take them in Valpo. Line: Even. Pick: Valparaiso 60, Butler 52.

MISSOURI VALLEY SEMIFINALS: AT ST. LOUIS

(1) Wichita State (27-4, 16-2) vs. (4) Illinois State (19-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Midwest/MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 10 – Wichita State 65-62; Feb. 22 – Wichita State 68-55*. RPI: Wichita State 12, Illinois State 124. Analysis: Illinois State wins with toughness, rebounding and defense. Guess what. The Shockers are tough, they rebound and play defense – and much, much more. Line: Wichita State -12. Pick: Wichita State 68, Illinois State 52.

(2) Creighton (26-5, 14-4) vs. (3) Evansville (16-14, 9-9)

Tipoff: 5 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Midwest/MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Evansville 65-57; Feb. 21 – Creighton 93-92 (OT). RPI: Creighton 25, Evansville 135. Analysis: Creighton will use a little better shot selection than Missouri State did against the Aces and pull away in the second half. Line: Creighton -6. Pick: Creighton 80, Evansville 71.

PATRIOT LEAGUE SEMIFINALS: AT CAMPUS SITES

(3) American (20-10, 10-4) at (2) Lehigh (24-7, 11-3)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Lehigh 71-60; Feb. 9 – American 71-62. RPI: Lehigh 117, American 150. Analysis: It is games like this in which Hawk star C.J. McCollum takes over, but the line seems way too high. Line: Lehigh -9½. Pick: Lehigh 64, American 58.

(5) Lafayette (13-17, 7-7) at (1) Bucknell (23-8, 12-2)

Tipoff: 4:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Bucknell 79-65*; Feb. 11 – Bucknell 90-78. RPI: Bucknell 92, Lafayette 199. Analysis: Bucknell’s Mike Muscala has scored 51 points against the Leopards in two outings. He’ll do it again on Saturday. Line: Bucknell -11½. Pick: Bucknell 83, Lafayette 65.

WCC SEMIFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) Saint Mary’s (25-5, 14-2) vs. (5) San Francisco (20-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 9 – Saint Mary’s 87-72; Feb. 25 – Saint Mary’s 67-60*. RPI: Saint Mary’s 37, San Francisco 142. Analysis: The Dons are playing well, including a 7-point loss at Saint Mary’s just a week ago. And the Gaels are still a little banged up, so USF should keep it close. Line: Saint Mary’s -7½. Pick: Saint Mary’s 71, San Francisco 66.

(2) Gonzaga (24-5, 13-3) vs. (3) BYU (24-7, 12-4)

Tipoff: 11 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 2 – BYU 83-78; Feb. 23 – Gonzaga 74-63. RPI: Gonzaga 24, BYU 52. Analysis: Interesting matchup featuring strong front lines and good shooters, but the Bulldogs have the better overall talent. Line: Gonzaga -1½. Pick: Gonzaga 69, BYU 62.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 100-69-2