Stetson

Iona vs. Rider: Friday Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:16:23 -0800

Light schedule tonight with Ivy League Fridays not really getting going on a consistent basis until next weekend, but there are some entertaining matchups to keep fans occupied. Both MAAC matchups consist of top-half (of the standings) teams taking on squads hoping to avoid "First Round Friday" in March's conference tournament. One such game is Iona hosting Rider on ESPNU, and while Tommy Dempsey's Broncs have been a major disappointment this year they have the firepower necessary to keep up with the Gaels.

But can Danny Stewart and company defend well enough to keep talents such as Scott Machado (the national leader in assists) and Mike Glover (AKA Optimus Prime) in check? Novar Gadson, who has found the going tough in recovering from offseason microfracture surgery, has shot 5-for-17 in his last three games and one has to wonder if there's some fatigue at play. The chemistry was off during non-conference play, especially with the addition of Virginia transfer Jeff Jones, but that seemed to be improving some before dropping games at Siena and Fairfield.

Also in the MAAC surprising Manhattan visits a Marist team that seems to be young every season, and it could become a situation where Chuck Martin's club needs a run in the MAAC Tournament to avoid a regime change. Freshman Chavaughn Lewis has been one of the better rookies in the MAAC and he's second on the team in scoring to Devin Price, but the Red Foxes average 15.7 turnovers per game. That could be an issue against Steve Masiello's Jaspers, who will look to ramp up the tempo with their full-court pressure.

George Beamon has led the way offensively for Manhattan, and after last season some seemed to forget how explosive a scorer he was in high school. Manhattan is a young team as well but they've all bought in to Masiello's vision for the program, and the team's experienced more success than expected as a result. Last year's meeting in Poughkeepsie looked to be a win for the home team...until Michael Alvarado did this. Hopefully we get similar fireworks tonight.

The best game of the night is in the Horizon League as first-place Milwaukee visits a Youngstown State team that's turned some heads this season. Seniors Kaylon Williams and Tony Meier lead the way for Rob Jeter's club, but they're going to have to be at their best defensively especially on the perimeter as the Penguins have multiple scoring options there. But what Youngstown State doesn't have is muscle in the paint, and Milwaukee may be able to take advantage of that. Butler was able to do so last weekend in their home win over YSU, and that could be what keeps Youngstown State from being a title contender this season.

Cleveland State is another Horizon contender and they host Green Bay, a team that has the ability to upset an unsuspecting title contender if not work their way back into the race. Center Alec Brown leads the way for the Phoenix, and his height (7'1") could be an issue for the Vikings in the paint. But can Green Bay slow down Jeremy Montgomery? That's easier said than done. And in the Atlantic Sun, Florida Gulf Coast visits Stetson in a battle of teams that are hoping to eventually separate from a middle of the pack that features five teams with either three or four league losses.

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Florida Gulf Coast at Stetson (ESPN3)
7:05 PM Milwaukee at Youngstown State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Green Bay at Cleveland State (ESPNU)
9:00 PM Manhattan at Marist (ESPN3)
10:00 PM Rider at Iona (ESPNU)

Monday Preview: Cincinnati at #11 Georgetown

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 21:49:24 -0800

While most of the country will be captivated by the BCS Championship Game, there are suitable alternatives on the college basketball schedule for those not interested in watching the rematch. The game that stands out has to be Cincinnati (12-4, 2-1) visiting #11 Georgetown (13-2, 3-1) with both teams looking to bounce back from losses suffered on Saturday afternoon. The situation may be even more important for the Bearcats, who despite their seven-game win streak ahead of their last-second loss to St. John's, still has to account for losses to Presbyterian and Marshall on their resume.

The problem for Cincinnati on Saturday was that for the first time in their stretch of games post-Xavier the four guard lineup couldn't shoot, making just 20 of 76 shots from the field and seven of thirty-two from beyond the arc. That allowed St. John's to get away with 19 turnovers, and the outcome could be even worse against a Georgetown team that does a better job of taking care of the basketball than the Red Storm. The Hoyas average 12.3 turnovers per game on the season, but they've turned the ball over 15 times or more in three of their four Big East games.

Mick Cronin's team is forcing 15 turnovers per game, and their four-guard attack has done a solid job of ramping up the tempo and forcing bad decisions. Leading the way is point guard Cashmere Wright (10.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.7 spg), whose game has taken off with Cronin handing him the keys offense. Wright was the chief decision-maker before the suspensions, but in the aftermath he's been given more freedom to look to score. Add in sophomore shooting guard Sean Kilpatrick (15.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and senior Dion Dixon (13.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and the Bearcats have a solid three-headed attack that can score points at a solid clip.

Georgetown counters on the perimeter with a good mixture of experience and youth, and their system can be tough to guard if defenders aren't alert with regards to backdoor cuts and the like. Senior Jason Clark (15.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and junior Hollis Thompson (14.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg) provide the experience and the consistent scoring while sophomore Markel Starks (9.1 ppg, 50.0% FG) has moved into the point guard job left open by the graduation of Chris Wright. The Hoyas are averaging 1.11 points/possession this season, and a big reason for their efficiency is the play of one of the most improved players in the Big East.

Senior center Henry Sims (11.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.9 apg) leads the Hoyas in assists, and his ability to initiate the offense from the high post allows the perimeter players to work off the ball to get their shots. Nate Lubick can serve in a similar role on occasion while freshman Otto Porter has become more comfortable in the system by the game. His versatility will be something to keep an eye on for the Bearcats, who could be at a disadvantage in matching up with Porter due to his ability to go either inside or out. Jaquon Parker (10.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who has played the four in Cincinnati's new setup, will need to be at his best if the Bearcats are to win.

That also goes for senior forward Yancy Gates (12.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg), who has come off the bench since returning to the lineup. Justin Jackson starts but he's far more valuable on the defensive end of the floor, allowing Gates to provide an offensive spark when he enters the game. Gates has done his best to fit into things on the floor, at times maybe even being a bit too deferential in attempt to not step on any toes. How Gates performs in the matchup with Sims on both ends of the floor could ultimately decide the outcome. If he's scoring and rebounding in addition to limiting Sims' role as a distributor Cincinnati can win.

Also in the Big East a Connecticut team that went 0-for-New Jersey last week looks to rebound, but it's going to be difficult against West Virginia despite the fact that the Huskies are back home. One big reason why is WVU's Kevin Jones, who as of right now would have to be considered the frontrunner for Big East Player of the Year. Jones went for 22 points and 16 rebounds in the Mountaineers' win over Georgetown, and overall the effort of Bob Huggins' team on the offensive glass could be a problem if UConn isn't ready to meet that challenge from a toughness standpoint. With the likes of Jones and Deniz Kilicli, this is a game where the Huskies need Alex Oriakhi to step up and be accounted for.

There's also the first of two installments of "Bedlam" as Oklahoma visits Stillwater to take on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has incurred some big losses on the perimeter, most recently losing J.P. Olukemi for the season with a torn ACL. The Sooners have one of the best scorers in the Big 12 in Steven Pledger, and under first-year head coach Lon Kruger they've definitely stepped up their play. Neither would be considered a contender for the Big 12 title, but the winner would take an important step towards being a part of the bubble conversation in the middle of the league.

Other games to keep an eye on include Saint Mary's hosting San Francisco, with this being the kind of game that can trip up an expected title contender like the Gaels. Rex Walters' Dons don't lack for talent but they've been a bit inconsistent, which could be a problem when dealing with SMC's Matthew Dellavedova and Rob Jones. The A-Sun, which looks to be more wide-open than anyone anticipated before the season began, has a pair of key matchups on the docket as North Florida visits and Stetson and Mercer visits USC Upstate. Belmont may very well win the conference again, but the race to the title will be a lot tougher this season than last.

And in the MEAC, Morgan State takes on Savannah State without head coach Todd Bozeman, who was suspended with pay by the school following an incident in the Bears' last game. Along with Hampton the Bears are expected to contend for the league's automatic bid, and a loss in a game like this one could come back to haunt Morgan State in regards to seeding for the conference tournament. Don't worry about not having anything to do if you don't want to watch Alabama and LSU, there's some good basketball to watch as well.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM Cincinnati at (11) Georgetown (ESPNU)
7:00 PM West Virginia at (16) Connecticut (ESPN2)

NCAA Division I Games
4:15 PM North Florida at Stetson
5:00 PM Jackson State at Southern
6:00 PM Mississippi Valley State at Alabama A&M
6:00 PM Kennesaw State at East Tennessee State
7:00 PM Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Hampton at James Madison
7:00 PM Bethune-Cookman at North Carolina Central
7:30 PM Jacksonville at Florida Gulf Coast
7:30 PM Coppin State at South Carolina State
7:30 PM Mercer at USC Upstate
8:00 PM Grambling State at Alcorn State
8:00 PM Florida A&M at North Carolina A&T
8:00 PM Howard at Norfolk State
8:00 PM Morgan State at Savannah State
8:05 PM Florida Atlantic at Arkansas State
8:30 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Alabama State
9:00 PM Texas-Pan American at Air Force
9:00 PM Idaho State at Wyoming
10:00 PM San Francisco at Saint Mary's

Atlantic Sun Tournament: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:05:00 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Atlantic Sun Tournament

The A-Sun Tournament features the 7 eligible teams in the conference, with regular season champions Jacksonville earning a first round bye, and 4^th placed Lipscomb hosting the event.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Jacksonville	100.00%	69.64%	45.79%
2	East Tennessee St.	84.10%	52.47%	23.47%
3	Belmont	76.41%	37.58%	14.45%
4	Lipscomb	74.62%	26.38%	13.64%
5	Campbell	25.38%	3.98%	1.10%
6	Mercer	23.59%	5.87%	0.98%
7	Stetson	15.90%	4.07%	0.57%

Jacksonville’s first round bye is a big bonus, giving them a leg up, but Lipscomb’s home court advantage makes them one of a group of serious threats to the Dolphins’ chances.

#1 – Jacksonville Dolphins (17-12, 15-5); Efficiency Margin: +0.161

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1986 (1^st Round)

Jacksonville finished atop the standings by just one game, but dominated the EM standings, and is a clear tournament favorite. The reason for this domination is the conference’s best offense: the Dolphins make 47% from the field, and are great on the offensive glass, getting a lot of high-percentage second-chance shots. They also get to the free-throw line often, where an average percentage nets them a good number of points. Jacksonville is also pretty solid defensively, despite struggling to defend the outside shot. It leads the conference in forcing turnovers and is near the top on the defensive glass, so an opponents’ good shooting percentages don’t necessarily hurt.

Players to watch:

5-10 JR Ben Smith, 16.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 51.1 eFG% - Smith averages more minutes than anyone else in the A-Sun, and is a critical player in the Dolphins’ success. He’s a pretty good shooter, but really shines by leading the team in assists and steals, and gets to the free throw line a lot, where he shoots 80%.

6-5 SO Ayron Hardy, 10.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 64.3 eFG% - If Ayron Hardy took more shots, but maintained his percentages, he’d probably be the most efficient player in the conference, as his 60% from the field, combined with a nice three-point touch, allow him to maximize his relatively small role in the offense. He’s also a strong offensive rebounder, and does well defensively, putting up good block and steal rates.

#2 – East Tennessee St. Buccaneers (20-10, 14-6); Efficiency Margin: +0.118

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

A bad five-game stretch in mid-February that saw the Bucs go 1-4 cost them a conference title, but they are still the clear second favorites to claim the NCAA Tourney bid. This is mostly due to ETSU’s defense, which is the conference’s best, though the Bucs’ high pace of play masks this at first glance. They force a lot of turnovers, as you’d expect, and their defensive style means that opponents put up a lot of threes, which ETSU defends well. They are somewhat weak inside, but don’t give opponents a lot of chances there. Offensively, they don’t make a lot of turnovers, and get most of their chances inside the arc, where they shoot 51%.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Kevin Tiggs, 21.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 57.7 eFG% - Tiggs is the conference’s leading scorer, but his point totals are indicative of more than just the Bucs pace; he’s an incredibly efficient shooter. He’s 53% from the floor, which includes a good percentage from three, and gets to the line a lot, where 78% shooting can often add a lot to his point totals. He also leads the team in steals.

6-6 JR Mike Smith, 15.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 51.6 eFG% - Smith is the clear third offensive option (behind Tiggs and Courtney Pigram), but has thrived in this role, another player who augments a good inside shooting percentage with a nice touch from behind the arc and at the line. His real strength is on the glass, the team’s leading rebounder and the only Buc to record more than two double-doubles on the season.

#3 – Belmont Bruins (18-11, 14-6); Efficiency Margin: +0.097

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

After giving Duke a major challenge in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Bruins came very close to repeating as conference champions, with a couple of losses to Jacksonville by a combined three points the difference in the title chase. Belmont features the conference’s most three-heavy offense, and when you make 36% of attempts, taking a lot tends to work out pretty well. When Belmont does go inside, it’s with great success, leading the A-Sun in two-point percentage. Still, it makes sense for them to be an outside-oriented team, as they get a lot of shots blocked, and are terrible interior defenders. Good perimeter play keeps them in it on the defensive end as well, as they hold opponents to just 32% on threes and force a lot of turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Alex Renfroe, 16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 60.7 eFG% - Renfroe is probably the conference’s best all-around player, and Belmont’s Mr. Everything, leading the team in scoring, rebounding and assists. His two-point percentage is excellent for a 6-2 player, well over 60%, and his ability to assert himself inside his further demonstrated by his solid rebounding rates. He does have problems with turnovers at times, but has one of the country’s best assist rates, somewhat making up for it.

6-2 SR Andy Wicke, 11.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.3 SPG, 54.4 eFG% - On a team with a lot of three-point shooters, Wicke is both the most prolific and the best, hitting over 38% of attempts. He also leads the conference in steals, and is a great complimentary scoring option who receives a good chunk of Renfroe’s assists.

#4 – Lipscomb Bison (16-13, 12-8); Efficiency Margin: +0.107

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The hottest team in the conference, Lipscomb enter the tournament on an eight-game winning streak, and won’t pose an easy challenge for anyone in their way, leading the conference in both making and defending shots. Despite this, the Bison don’t lead the conference in either offense or defense, as they have some serious problems in other areas. On both ends of the court, they struggle with turnovers, committing too many and forcing too few. They get to the free throw line a lot, but leave a good number of points on the floor with one of the conference’s weaker shooting percentages. Defensively, they are somewhat vulnerable inside, despite holding opponents to a low FG% overall. This is a team that looks like it might be little better than EM would indicate, and should be considered a serious threat to cause an upset on its home floor.

Players to watch:

6-9, SO Adnan Hodzic, 17.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 59.6 eFG% - The Bosnian big man leads the Bison in both points and rebounds, and is the key to the team’s success, averaging nearly 20-and-9 during the 8 game win streak. He’s a 60% shooter from the field who will cause opponents a lot of headaches in the paint.

6-3, SR Michael Lusk, 8.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 60.8 eFG% - Like Hodzic, Lusk has been hot of late, including coming just one assist short of a triple-double in the Bison’s last game of the year. He doesn’t take a lot of shots, but when he does, he’s usually pretty effective, 46% from behind the arc. He’s also got a good assist rate, though like much of the team he struggles with turnovers.

#5 – Campbell Fighting Camels (14-15, 11-9); Efficiency Margin: +0.011

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1992 (1^st Round)

Campbell is another team that enters the tournament on a roll, having won its last four, including two against teams seeded above them, but it’s hard to see them extending that winning streak at all, let alone pulling off a big surprise to get the bid. When looking at the efficiency stats, there is a clear seperation between Campbell and the teams above it, as the Camels’ offense, well under a point per possession, is much weaker than that of the contenders. Campbell’s problem is its two-point shooting, which is under 45%, a number that makes it pretty hard to avoid wasting possessions. The same problem extends to the defensive end, where the Camels get pretty badly beaten inside, though they manage to make up for it by forcing a lot of turnovers and doing a good job on the defensive glass.

Players to watch:

6-5 JR Jonathan Rodriguez, 16.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 51.4 eFG% - Rodriguez is basically the lone offensive bright spot for Campbell, though his play has tapered off a little in recent weeks. He has a good outside shot, but does his best work inside the arc, where he makes over 50% of his attempts and sits third in the conference in rebounding.

6-1 FR Lorne Merthie, 9.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 49.1 eFG% - The freshman is the Camels’ most frequent long-distance shooter, and at 41% he’s the most effective as well. His mid-30s percentage shooting from two means that he should stay behind the arc, though.

#6 – Mercer Bears (17-14, 11-9); Efficiency Margin: -0.006

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1985 (1^st Round)

Mercer is likely to have a tough time in the tournament, as the Bears have the worst defense of any of the teams headed to Nashville. They are the conference’s worst perimeter defenders, forcing few turnovers and allowing opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. They are a little better defending inside, but have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass. Offensively, Mercer is in the middle of the pack, good offensive rebounders who hold onto the ball, but isn’t a good enough shooting team to really take advantage of its possessions.

Players to watch:

6-8 JR Daniel Emerson, 14.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 50.8 eFG% - Emerson is the only player in the A-Sun to average a double-double, and is the Bears’ most efficient offensive player. Beyond his conference best rebounding, Emerson is a solid inside scorer, and has the ability to step out and hit a three-pointer. He also gets to the line a lot, where he shoots 70%.

6-1 JR James Florence, 20.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.3 SPG, 47.8 eFG% - Florence is the conference’s second leading scorer, but can often waste a lot of shots, especially from three, where he shoots less than 30%. When he’s hitting his threes, he’s an excellent player, generating steals and assists in addition to a lot of good chances inside, but when the threes don’t fall, he’ll probably cause more harm than good.

#7 – Stetson Hatters (13-16, 9-11); Efficiency Margin: -0.024

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The Hatters’ quest for their first NCAA bid looks like quite a long-shot; they’re the only below .500 conference team in the tournament, and enter it on a four game losing streak. They’re decent defenders, but have the tournament’s worst offense, and are one of the poorest shooting teams in the A-Sun. They hold onto the ball well, and get back a lot of their own misses, but when a team shoots under 40% from the field, it doesn’t really matter. Defensively, they’re right around the conference average, but are vulnerable to inside play, allowing opponents a high percentage from two.

Players to watch:

6-5 SR Garfield Blair, 17.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 48.7 eFG% - Blair leads the Hatters in both scoring and rebounding, and has come into the tournament on a roll, averaging more than 20 points in his last six games. His offensive game is much more perimeter oriented than you might expect from his rebounding numbers, he’s a 37% three-point shooter whose offensive problems come when he shoots inside, where his numbers are less than impressive.

6-0 JR A.J. Smith, 12.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 44.2 eFG% - Smith is one of those players who undoes a lot of the good work he does with mistakes, giving the ball up a lot and shooting under 40% on two-point shots. Beyond that, he’s an effective guard, a solid three-point shooter and leading the team in assists.

My statistical all-Atlantic Sun team:

Jacksonville JR G Ben Smith, 16.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 51.1 eFG%

East Tennessee St. SR G Kevin Tiggs, 21.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 57.7 eFG%

Belmont SR G Alex Renfroe, 16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 60.7 eFG%

Mercer JR F Daniel Emerson, 14.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 50.8 eFG%

South Carolina Upstate SR F Bobby Davis, 14.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 54.0 eFG%

Atlantic Sun Basketball Preview: 08-09

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 11:11:48 -0800

Conference Rank: 28th

10 year average: 25th

Conference Page

All-ATLANTIC SUN Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	James Florence	Mercer	Jr
G	Courntey Pigram	ETSU	Sr
G/F	Shane Dansby	Belmont	Sr
F	Marcus Allen	Jacksonville	Sr
F	Jonathan Rodriguez	Campbell	Jr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Courtney Pigram Jonathan Rodriguez		Points: Jonathan Rodriguez 20.9 Rebounds: Jonathan Rodriguez 10.1 Assists: Rob Quaintaince (FGCU) 5.3

ATLANTIC SUN Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

109	Belmont* **	Asun	1	NCAA
156	Stetson	Asun	2
176	Jacksonville	Asun	3
227	East Tennessee	Asun	4
248	Lipscomb	Asun	5
275	Mercer	Asun	6
296	Kennesaw St	Asun	7
302	Campbell	Asun	8
313	Florida Gulf Coast	Asun	9
320	USC Upstate	Asun	10
344	North Florida	Asun	11

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Atlantic Sun?

Other ATLANTIC SUN Content

Conference Media Poll

Belmont Favored in A-Sun Media Poll

Interviews

Rick Byrd: Belmont Head Coach

Other

Rise & Fall: A-Sun

Daily Conference Poll: Who Will Win the Atlantic Sun?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 08:00:18 -0700

Atlantic Sun Preseason Media & Coaches Poll

Press Release — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 08:40:31 -0700

Coaches' Poll
Rank School (1st-Place) Points
1 Belmont (7) 113
T2 ETSU (2) 104
T2 Jacksonville (1) 104
4 Lipscomb 87
5 Stetson 76
6 Mercer (1) 74
7 Campbell 55
8 Kennesaw State 38
9 FGCU 32
10 USC Upstate 24
11 UNF 19

Tournament Champ: Belmont

All-Conference Team
Pos Player Class School
G Garfield Blair Sr. Stetson
G/F Shane Dansby Sr. Belmont
G Courtney Pigram Sr. ETSU
F Jonathan Rodriguez Jr. Campbell
G Ben Smith Jr. Jacksonville

Player of the Year: G Courtney Pigram, Sr., ETSU

Media Poll
Rank School (1st-Place) Points
1 Belmont (25) 348
2 Jacksonville (5) 316
3 ETSU (3) 305
4 Lipscomb 245
5 Stetson 240
6 Mercer 183
7 Campbell 163
8 Kennesaw State 145
9 FGCU 106
10 USC Upstate 77
11 UNF 50

Tournament Champ: Belmont

State of '08: Florida

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 09:48:10 -0700

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Duke or Carolina? BC or UMASS? Gonzaga or Washington.. or Washington State? What is the best program in each state? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a ranking of every program in every state.. based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

Up today: Florida For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

FLORIDA

FLORIDA - Obvious choice at the top of the Sunshine state. Before last year, Billy Donovan's Gators had made 9 NCAA Tournaments in a row.. including back to back national titles. Hart to top that.

MIAMI - Since Frank Haith took over four years ago, Miami has made two NIT trips and one NCAA Tournament. But in the five years before last, Miami hadn't reached the Top 60 in RPI, and they've still never finished above .500 in the ACC. Fans are certainly expecting a big ACC finish this time around.

FLORIDA STATE - The 'Noles perpetually seem to be on the verge of something big, but they can't seem to get over the hump. This is basically the story of Leonard Hamilton's career. In the last six years, FSU has hovered between 41 and 81 in the RPI five times.. but have yet to reach the Big Dance.

CENTRAL FLORIDA - Despite lacking the profile of a Miami or FSU, UCF is a consistently solid team that deserves more attention. Long time coach Kirk Speraw has led the Knights to four NCAA Tournaments, and helped them make the transition to the more competitive Conference USA. Since joining the CUSA before 2006, the Knights have finished .500 or better in league play each season.

SOUTH FLORIDA - The Bulls haven't had much success since joining the Big East, but the program does seem to be gaining momentum. Last year, USF beat three Top 60 teams including FSU, UAB, and Syracuse.

6. FLORIDA A&M - The Rattlers are always one of the better teams in the MEAC. In fact, 2001 was the last time FAMU finished below .500 in league play. Although the MEAC is the 2nd worst league in the country, the Rattlers have taken advantage of the weak competition by making the Tournament in 2004 & 2007.

7. FLORIDA ATLANTIC - After a shocking Tourney run in 2002, the Owls haven't sniffed postseason play. In fact, FAU has only won two SB tournament games in the past six seasons, though they've been competitive in the last three seasons. It will be interesting to see if new head coach Mike Jarvis can regain some his former glory, after his tenure at St. John's came to an embarrassing end.

8. JACKSONVILLE - The Dolphins are coming off one of their best campaigns in recent memory, finishing 2nd in the A-Sun, making it to the conference title game, and finishin with an RPI of 164. That's pretty heady stuff for a program that was 1-26 in 2006 (only managing to knock of UNF). This is the 2nd season in a row that JU led its Florida rivals (Stetson, FGCU, and UNF) in the A-Sun.

9. STETSON - The Mad Hatters have hovered around 250 in the RPI for the past couple years, but are coming off a decent campaign that included an 11-5 Atlantic Sun record. This is the second time Stetson has won 11 league games in the past three seasons.

10. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - FIU is consistently overmatched by its Sun Belt competition. The Panthers haven't finished above .500 in league play since 2000.. and really haven't come close since. At least things have improved since 03 & 04 when FIU was one of the worst teams in the country, winning just 10 D1 games those years.

11. BETHUNE-COOKMAN - The Wildcats continue to struggle, finishing 3rd to last in the lowly MEAC in back to back seasons. 2000 was probably the last time there was any legitimate hope of making a run in the conference tournament.

12. FLORIDA GULF COAST - In their first full D1 season, FGCU had decent success, winning 10 games, including 6 in the Atlantic Sun. At the very least, this already puts them ahead of North Florida.

13. NORTH FLORIDA - Despite a decent nickname (the Ospreys), UNF hasn't had even the slightest success since joining D1 in 05-06. UNF has won an amazingly small 7 D1 games in the past three seasons, and only beat winless NJIT in the RPI last year.

Last: D.C. - Next: Georgia

State of '08: The Introduction