Tennessee St

Finals Predictions: Atlantic Sun, Big South, OVC

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 10:19:13 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(7) VMI (17-15, 8-10) at (1) UNC-Asheville (23-9, 16-2)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – Asheville 94-85; Feb. 2 – Asheville 89-86*. RPI: Asheville 120, VMI 267. Analysis: VMI’s high-powered offense is rolling, maybe enough to keep the Keydets in this game. Line: Asheville -14. Pick: Asheville 89, VMI 80.

OHIO VALLEY CHAMPIONSHIP: AT NASHVILLE

(1) Murray State (29-1, 15-1) vs. (2) Tennessee State (20-11, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 9 – Tennessee State 72-68*; Feb. 23 – Murray State 80-62*. RPI: Murray State 31, Tennessee State 131. Analysis: Obviously, the Tigers have the ability to beat Murray. Will they do it for the second time this season? Probably not, but the Racers won’t beat them by 18 points again in Nashville. Line: Murray State -7. Pick: Murray State 84, Tennessee State 78.

ATLANTIC SUN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT MACON, GA.

(1) Belmont (26-7, 16-2) vs. (6) Florida Gulf Coast (15-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Belmont 95-53; Feb. 11 – Belmont 86-63*. RPI: Belmont 63, FGCU 228. Analysis: The A-Sun field has had nothing for Belmont this season. Saturday will be no different. Line: Belmont -15½. Pick: Belmont 82, Florida Gulf Coast 57.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 100-69-2

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 07:37:16 -0800

Three tickets to the NCAA tournament will be punched on Saturday, beginning with the Big South title game matching seven-seed VMI and regular season champion UNC Asheville. Eddie Biedenbach's Bulldogs have avoided the turmoil on the opposite side of the bracket, which saw both Coastal Carolina and Campbell fall in the quarterfinals. Duggar Baucom's Keydets were the ones who knocked off CCU, as they shot an impressive 14-for-28 from three in their 85-68 win over the Chanticleers. VMI would follow that up with a 75-55 win over Winthrop on Thursday, limiting the Eagles to 32.8% shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

A repeat of either of those performances will be tougher to come by against UNC Asheville, who relies on the Big South's best perimeter tandem on the offensive end of the floor. Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm average a combined 31.8 points and 7.6 assists per game on the season, and if one struggles the other is more than capable of picking up the slack. The Bulldogs aren't just a two-man attack however, as senior guard Chris Stephenson is scoring just over 13 points a game and forward Jeremy Atkinson adds 11.5 and 6.7 boards. VMI has Stan Okoye and Kenny Gabriel to rely on while Jordan Weethee has shot the ball well this week.

Both teams can clearly score, with UNC Asheville averaging 81 points per game and VMI 80, but the Bulldogs have been the more efficient team with their average of 1.1 4 points per possession. The two regular season meetings were both close, high-scoring affairs with the Bulldogs winning both by a combined 12 points.

VMI can force turnovers with the best of them and they pestered the Bulldogs into 18 of them in the second meeting. But the Keydets can't afford to turn the ball over themselves, something they did in both meetings (17 apiece). Take care of the basketball and VMI's got a shot to go dancing, but if they can't they'll be headed back to Lexington without the crown.

The OVC title game is the one most bubble teams will be tuned into (so long as they're not playing themselves), as Murray State is going to the Big Dance with or without an automatic bid. A Tennessee State win would make the OVC a two-bid league, and given the fact that the Tigers beat Murray State in their gym that's not exactly far-fetched.

Robert Covington is one of the toughest matchups in the OVC, and he put up 24 and 15 in the Tigers' 80-62 loss to Murray State on February 23rd. John Cooper's Tigers have been balanced offensively so it's not just a one-man show, and the same goes for the Isaiah Canaan-led Racers. Donte Poole accounted for 25 and seven rebounds in their win over Tennessee Tech, and Ivan Aska and Ed Daniel are two guys who thrive in physical games inside.

Last but not least there's the Atlantic Sun final which matches top-seed Belmont and six-seed Florida Gulf Goast, who are in their first season of full Division I membership. North Florida entered last season's title game in the same spot as the Eagles, but Belmont was having no part of a "storybook" finish for their opponent. Rick Byrd's Bruins haven't been as dominant as they were last season but they're still the class of the A-Sun with Kerron Johnson and big men Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders leading the way.

FGCU has withstood two off performances from Brett Comer but they need him to be at his best if they're to dethrone the reigning champs. The good news for the Eagles is that big men Chase Fieler and Eddie Murray have played well this week, and another solid outing from them will give FGCU a chance.

Atlantic Sun - Title Game
#1 Belmont vs. #6 FGCU, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Big South - Title game
#7 VMI at #1 UNC Asheville, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ohio Valley - Title Game
#1 Murray State vs. #2 Tennessee State, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

America East - Quarterfinals (at University of Hartford)
#1 Stony Brook vs. #9 Binghamton, 12:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#4 Albany vs. #5 New Hampshire, *2:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#2 Vermont vs. #7 Maine, 6:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#3 Boston U. vs. #6 Hartford, *8:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)

Binghamton kicked things off in America East on Thursday night with a win over UMBC but the climb gets much steeper for Mark Macon's Bearcats as they take on regular season champ Stony Brook. The Seawolves scored just 67.4 points per game but they're one of the league's better defensive teams, limiting opponents to 59.1 points and 0.93 points per possession. If Robert Mansell and Ben Dickinson can shake free from the likes of league Defensive Player of the Year Tommy Brenton maybe Binghamton can hang around, but it doesn't look promising.

The 4/5 game should be interesting to watch due to the presence of Albany's Gerardo Suero, a junior guard who is one of the nation's best scorers and a guy some feel was robbed in the America East Player of the Year voting. UNH can counter with a solid guard of their own in Alvin Abreu, but slowing down Suero is a task that won't be done with ease. Also keep an eye on Albany's Logan Aronholt, who's been dealing with a knee injury that's forced him to sit for two games and play just nine minutes apiece in two others over the last four games.

Big Sky - Quarterfinals
#5 Idaho State at #4 Eastern Washington, 5:00 p.m.
#6 Montana State at #3 Portland State, 10:00 p.m.

The winners in the Big Sky will move on to play Montana and Weber State next week, and given how tight the race for those final tournament spots was these two contests shouldn't lack in the entertainment department. idaho State features one of the league's hottest scorers in Kenny McGowen, but the EWU trio of Cliff Colimon, Cliff Ederaine and Colin Chiverton will be tough to stop. Add in the fact that ISU is 4-12 on the road this season and it could be a tough day for the Bengals in Cheney.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats lost leading scorer Xavier Blount for the season due to injuries suffered in an altercation and it's been a struggle offensively ever since. They visit a Portland State team that hasn't had such issues thanks to Chehales Tapscott and Charles Odum, which means it could be a tough day on the road for Montana State.

Colonial - Quarterfinals
#1 Drexel vs. #9 UNCW, Noon (CAA-TV)
#4 Old Dominion vs. #5 Delaware, 2:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#2 VCU vs. #7 Northeastern, 6 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#3 George Mason vs. #6 Georgia State, 8:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)

The "big guns" in the CAA make their debut in this season's tournament, beginning with regular season champion Drexel taking on UNC Wilmington. The question surrounding the league this weekend is whether or not they can find a second NCAA tournament bid, with the Dragons, VCU and George Mason all owning impressive overall records (Drexel and VCU have won 25 games while George Mason has 23 wins). But the computer profiles are a bit lacking in the eyes of some, which could limit the CAA to just one bid come Selection Sunday.

CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson has the ability to put George Mason on his back and lead them to the title, but the same can be said for VCU's Bradford Burgess and Drexel's Frantz Massenat. Also keep an eye on four-seed ODU, led by senior Kent Bazemore. The Monarchs have a tough matchup to deal with in Delaware's Jamelle Hagins, but Blaine Taylor's squad has been solid defensively for much of the season.

Horizon League - Semifinals (at Valparaiso)
#3 Detroit vs. #2 Cleveland State, 6 p.m. (ESPN3)
#5 Butler at #1 Valparaiso, 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

The talk following Friday's quarterfinals was whether or not this was the beginning of another March run for Butler, but it would be wise to remember that Valparaiso is the regular season champion. The Crusaders won both regular season meetings: by six at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 3rd and by 12 (71-59) in the regular season finale for both last Friday. The time off has also given forward Kevin Van Wijk more time to rest his knee, and that should help Bryce Drew's team along with playing at home. Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff was quiet in the second meeting but Van Wijk led the way with 18 and Will Bogan is a solid offensive piece as well.

Butler will need another solid night from Roosevelt Jones and Khyle Marshall along with Andrew Smith if they're to win at Valpo. The first semifinal matches Detroit, who looked very good offensively in their win over Youngstown State, and a Cleveland State team that's struggled since D'Aundray Brown went down. If Brown can go and be effective the Vikings can definitely win, but if he's limited or can't go they likely won't have enough weapons to keep up with the Titans.

Metro Atlantic - Quarterfinals
#4 Fairfield vs. #5 Rider, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
#1 Iona vs. #8 Marist, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#2 Loyola (MD) vs. #7 Niagara, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#3 Manhattan vs. #6 Siena, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN3)

The first game of the day in the MAAC tournament is the most intriguing, as not only is the battle between Fairfield and Rider a contrast in styles but both teams have the ability to make a run this weekend. The Stags lost guard Derek Needham for the season due to a broken foot but they've got enough depth to navigate his loss, and in forward Rakim Sanders the Stags have one of the league's toughest covers. Tommy Dempsey's Broncs didn't play as well as expected during the regular season but with weapons such as Novar Gadson, Jeff Jones and Jonathon Thompson, Rider is more than capable of winning a shootout. But can they guard well enough to stick around Springfield for a few days? That's the big question.

Loyola has to be wary of Niagara given the scoring ability of freshmen Juan'ya Green and Antoine Mason, but the Greyhounds' depth and versatility could prove to be too much for the Purple Eagles. In the final game of the night Siena's chances hinge on the health of guard Evan Hymes due to their lack of depth, and Iona needs to take the floor with a killer instinct in their quarterfinal matchup with Marist.

Missouri Valley - Semifinals
#1 Wichita State vs. #4 Illinois State, 2:30 p.m. (MVC TV)
#2 Creighton vs. #3 Evansville, 5:00 p.m. (MVC TV)

The top four seeds meet in St. Louis and while many will expect the Shockers and Bluejays to advance don't sell the redbirds or Purple Aces short. Evansville took Creighton to overtime at home before some costly mistakes in the extra session cost them a win, lost by just three at Wichita State. But given the way Gregg Marshall's Shockers are playing of late it's going to be tough to slow them down given their many offensive options to go along with a solid defense. If Jackie Carmichael can control the paint in his battle with Garrett Stutz then ISU has a chance.

The second game could be a shootout given the offensive ability of both teams. Doug McDermott is a household name and he's got teammates more than capable of scoring as well, but Evansville has a combo in Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes who can get going offensively as well. If Marty Simmons' club can take care of the basketball and limit McDermott's paint touches they can win, but that's a big "if" at this point.

Southern - Quarterfinals
#1N UNCG vs. #5N Appalachian State, 12:00 p.m.
#2S Wofford vs. #3N Western Carolina, 2:30 p.m.
#1S Davidson vs. #5S Furman, 6:00 p.m.
#2N Elon vs. #3S Georgia Southern, 8:30 p.m.

The question is a simple one: which of the other seven teams left in the SoCon tournament can knock off Davidson, the overall regular season champion and prohibitive favorite to win the automatic bid? Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks have been outstanding all season long in the frontcourt and five Wildcats are averaging at least ten points per game. The best story may be UNCG, whose interim head coach (Wes Miller) was named league Coach of the Year due to his leading the Spartans to the North Division crown, and they've got a high-flying scorer in Trevis Simpson as well. Wofford's been to two NCAA tournaments under head coach Mike Young and they navigated the loss of a group of seniors led by Noah Dahlman to finish second in the South Division.

Summit - Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts vs. #8 IPFW, 7:00 p.m. (FCS)
#2 South Dakota State vs. #7 IUPUI, 9:30 p.m. (FCS)

Summit League play opens tonight with the top two seeds tipping things off, and two of the country's best players whose names aren't tossed around on ESPN every night will be on display. ORU's Dominique Morrison has been an outstanding scorer this season, and South Dakota State point guard Nate Wolters is one of the country's most efficient players. Those two are expected to end up meeting in the title game, and even though the Jackrabbits did beat IUPUI by 11 in the regular season finale there was also the 97-93 thriller played between the two earlier this season. Alex Young is averaging 20.7 points per game to lead the Jaguars, who can salvage what's been a disappointing season with a run in Sioux Falls.

Sun Belt - First Round
#6 South Alabama vs. #11 Troy, 7:00 p.m. (Summit Arena)
#8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Arkansas State, 7:15 p.m. (Convention Center Court)
#7 Western Kentucky vs. #10 FIU, 9:30 p.m. (Summit Arena)

Seeds six through eleven open up play in Hot Springs, Arkansas, and it will be interesting to see if any of these teams can cause some chaos within the bracket. South Alabama may be the best choice due to the Jaguars being the lone team without a losing conference record (8-8), and after that it's anyone's guess. WKU is a very young team but they're talented as well with freshman Derrick Gordon leading the way. Three teams will keep their seasons alive but it's difficult to see any of them getting to the semifinals much less the title game.

WCC - Semifinals
#1 Saint Mary's vs. #5 San Francisco, 9:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Gonzaga vs. #3 BYU, 11:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

The three teams many expect to get to the NCAA tournament out of the WCC will be on display, but San Francisco has the ability to surprise Saint Mary's and reach the final. The Dons lost a close one to the Gaels in the regular season finale, and the celebration of their first outight WCC title in more than 20 years did go over too well with U.S.F. wing Rashad Green (he reportedly banged on the SMC locker room door and "asked" them to keep the noise down). Cody Doolin and Michael Williams are playing well and Angelo Caloiaro is one of the WCC's most versatile players, so don't be surprised if San Francisco can push Matthew Dellavedova, Rob Jones and company to the brink.

In the nightcap one would think that a BYU win over Gonzaga, which would give them two this season, would truly punch the Cougars' ticket to the Big Dance if it hasn't been already. Noah Hartsock looked good despite being bugged by a knee injury at the end of the regular season on Friday night, scoring 19 points in the Cougars' win over San Diego. But Matt Carlino can't turn the ball over nine times as he did against the Toreros if they're to knock off Gonzaga, who needs consistent play from Elias Harris and Robert Sacre inside.

Friday Tournament Predictions: Horizon, OVC, MVC, WCC

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:55:14 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS: AT MACON, GA.

Belmont (25-7, 16-2) vs. East Tennessee State (17-13, 10-8)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Belmont 82-70; Feb. 18 – Belmont 80-58. RPI: Belmont 63, East Tennessee State 180. Analysis: Belmont beat the Buccaneers by a combined 34 points in two meetings this year. Can’t find a reason why the Bruins won’t blow them out again. Line: Belmont -12. Pick: Belmont 88, East Tennessee State 66.

Mercer (22-10, 13-5) vs. Florida Gulf Coast (14-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Mercer 76-54; Feb. 20 – Mercer 75-66. RPI: Mercer 126, Florida Gulf Coast 238. Analysis: Mercer looked better in its win over Lipscomb, but the Bears probably aren’t playing well enough yet to take them against the spread. Line: Mercer -9.5. Pick: Mercer 71, Florida Gulf Coast 67.

HORIZON LEAGUE QUARETRFINALS: AT VALPARAISO, IND.

(3) Detroit (19-13, 11-7) vs. (6) Youngstown State (16-14, 10-8)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Youngstown 64-61*; Feb. 25 – Detroit 76-74*. RPI: Detroit 158, Youngstown State 166. Analysis: Detroit’s underachieving roller coaster season comes to an end. Line: Detroit -6. Pick: Youngstown State 68, Detroit 65.

(4) Milwaukee (20-12, 11-7) vs. (5) Butler (19-13, 11-7)

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Butler 54-50; Jan. 26 – Milwaukee 53-42. RPI: Milwaukee 124, Butler 112. Analysis: The Butler magic lives on – for one more day. Line: Butler -1. Pick: Butler 66, Milwaukee 61.

MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS: AT ST. LOUIS

(1) Wichita State (26-4, 16-2) vs. (8) Indiana State (17-13, 8-10)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Wichita State 75-65*; Feb. 4 – Wichita State 71-66. RPI: Wichita State 12, Indiana State 130. Analysis: This isn’t a typical 1/8 matchup with the Sycamores finishing a game behind third place. Indiana State is closer to the team that won last year’s tournament than to the one that struggled during the middle of this season. Line: Wichita St -10. Pick: Wichita State 70, Indiana State 62.

(4) Illinois State (18-12, 9-9) vs. (5) Northern Iowa (19-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: Approx. 3:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 29 – Illinois State 65-61; Feb. 11 – Northern Iowa 78-63. RPI: Illinois State 125, Northern Iowa 62. Analysis: This game could go either way, so take the team with more post-season experience. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Pick: Northern Iowa 70, Illinois State 67.

(2) Creighton (25-5, 14-4) vs. (7) Drake (16-14, 9-9)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Creighton 76-59; Jan. 25 – Creighton 77-69. RPI: Creighton 25, Drake 127. Analysis: Except for a late push against Long Beach State, the Blue Jays just aren’t playing as well as they were earlier this season. It would be tough to take them by more than a handful of points. Line: Creighton -8. Pick: Creighton 69, Drake 65.

(3) Evansville (15-14, 9-9) vs. (6) Missouri State (16-15, 9-9)

Tipoff: Approx. 9:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Evansville 87-82 (OT)*; Feb. 25 – Evansville 75-70 (OT). RPI: Evansville 138, Missouri State 108. Analysis: Missouri State senior Kyle Weems will find a way to shine in his final week, and the Bear defense will clamp down on Ace star Colt Ryan. Line: Missouri State -2. Pick: Missouri State 77, Evansville 70.

OHIO VALLEY SEMIFINALS: AT NASHVILLE

(1) Murray State (28-1, 15-1) vs. (4) Tennessee Tech (19-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Murray State 82-74; Feb. 25 – Murray State 69-64*. RPI: Murray State 31, Tennessee Tech 151. Analysis: Tennessee Tech found a way to keep both regular-season meetings close, and Kevin Murphy and the Eagles will push the Racers again. Line: Murray St -8. Pick: Murray State 70, Tennessee Tech 64.

(2) Tennessee State (19-11, 11-5) vs. (3) Morehead State (18-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: Approx. 8 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Tennessee State 77-72. RPI: Tennessee State 131, Morehead State 173. Analysis: With an extra day of rest, Tennessee State will pull away from the Eagles early in the second half. Line: Tennessee St -4. Pick: Tennessee State 81, Morehead State 69.

WCC QUARTERFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(4) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 11-5) vs. (5) San Francisco (19-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Loyola Marymount 77-76 (OT)*; Feb. 4 – Loyola Marymount 90-88. RPI: Loyola Marymount 119, San Francisco 147. Analysis: Vegas is begging you to take LMU, don't fall for it. Line: San Francisco -1.5. Pick: Loyola Marymount 78, San Francisco 75.

(3) BYU (24-7, 12-4) vs. (6) San Diego (12-17, 9-7)

Tipoff: Approx. 11 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – BYU 88-52; Jan. 16 – BYU 82-63*. RPI: BYU 50, San Diego 193. Analysis: BYU will control the boards and its defensive end en route to an easy win. Line: BYU -13. Pick: BYU 78, San Diego 55.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 95-62-2

Murray State Suffers First Loss: Thursday's Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:05:44 -0800

As the streak grew longer, it seemed as if it became a foregone conclusion in the eyes of many that Murray State would simply run through the Ohio Valley Conference on their way to a Sears BracketBusters contest against Saint Mary's. Steve Prohm's head coaching career got off to a dream start, as the Racers won 23 straight games with Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole leading the way. That run came to an end on Thursday night as the Racers fell 72-68 to a Tennessee State team that relied on balance to grab their eighth win in the last nine games.

Robert Covington led four Tigers in double figures with 17 points (and eight rebounds), scoring on a key tip-in with 1:25 remaining to give TSU a 69-65 lead. Just as important were the contributions of Kenny Moore (16 points) and Jordan Cyphers (ten points, three assists), who led a Tennessee State bench that outscored Murray State's reserves 30-10. Canaan scored 31 points to lead all scorers and Poole added ten but they were the only Murray State players to reach double figures, and their reliance on Canaan got the Racers in trouble down the stretch.

Jewuan Long's attempt to get Canaan (who was being double-teamed) was stolen by Patrick Miller and ultimately ended up in the hands of Covington, who missed both free throws to keep the score at 69-68. Canaan would drive the length of the floor before getting into trouble as he approached the foul line, ultimately turning the ball over and getting called for a foul with 3.5 seconds remaining. But if there's a question about how Murray handled their final possession (following a pair of Moore free throws), it would have to be why they attempted a length of the court baseball pass.

Why? The Racers had two timeouts remaining, and with that amount of time on the clock a play in which Murray State could complete the inbounds pass at around half court and use one of those timeouts may have been best. But hindsight is 20/20, and for a team that hasn't been in many situations like this down the stretch Murray State will get better from this.

The key: achieve better offensive balance, because while there certainly isn't a problem with Canaan and Poole being the primary options those two are going to need more consistent help. Outside of those two, Murray State shot 10-for-27 from the field, and the 18 turnovers the Racers racked up (Canaan: six) didn't help matters either. Does this outcome make the Saint Mary's game more important? From a seedind standpoint yes, due to the fact that Murray State is 3-0 against the RPI Top 100 and 12 of their 23 wins (three don't "count" in the NCAA evaluation process since they came against non-Division I opponents) are against teams with an RPI of 201 or worse.

But can someone honestly say with a straight face that Murray State, provided the wheels don't fall off, wouldn't be one of the 37 best teams should they not grab the OVC's automatic bid? Remember that bubble so many criticize (annually) for being weak? Let's step away from the ledge when discussing the at-large possibilities for Murray State, because there's a long way to go. The Racers now have the task of learning from their late-game miscues, and while this current team hasn't had to do that there's enough experience on the roster to make sure they do so.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Gonzaga not ready to hand over the WCC crown just yet.
There were many (myself included) who wondered if there was about to be a changing of the guard in the WCC on Thursday as Saint Mary's visited Gonzaga, as a win would give the Gaels a three-game lead with four to go. But the Bulldogs, who have won the last eleven regular season titles, weren't ready or willing to hand over the crown as they won 73-59. Kevin Pangos scored a game-high 27 points and three other starters reached double figures for the Bulldogs, who are now just a game behind Saint Mary's in the loss column. Matthew Dellavedova scored 20 points in a losing effort, but he shot 1-for-5 from the field in the second half and as a team the Gaels shot just 36% in the final 20 minutes.

By comparison the Bulldogs found just about any shot they wanted and knocked them down too, shooting 60% from the field (second half efficiency: 133.0) with Pangos scoring 15 of their 39 points. Robert Sacre, who wasn't a factor in the first meeting, scored 12 points and grabbed nine rebounds for the Bulldogs, who still have a home game against BYU on the schedule. Mark Few's team may not be in the driver's seat at this point, but if Saint Mary's is going to win the WCC the Bulldogs made sure it wasn't going to happen in their house.

2. As soon as we think we know who the Pac-12 frontrunner is, of course Washington gets blown out.
At this point it may be best to institute a rule stating that no one will attempt to anoint anone as the pacemaker in the Pac-12 race, because as soon as it seems like something is "known", that fact gets ripped to shreds. Lorenzo Romar's Huskies went to Eugene and got manhandled by Oregon, who raced out of the gates on an 8-0 run (all eight scored by Garrett Sim) and didn't look back until the 82-57 romp ended. Carlos Emory scored 16 points off the bench and Sim was one of three starters to score 13 points, and Dana Altman's team just looked far more prepared for what what going to happen on the floor than the Huskies.

That result dropped the Huskies into a tie for first with California, who took advantage of Maurice Jones picking up his third foul to whip USC 75-49. And just a game behind those two are Oregon, Arizona and Colorado, with the Wildcats beating the Buffaloes 71-57 thanks in part to double-doubles posted by Solomon Hill and Jesse Perry. Winners of three straight Arizona is the hottest team in this quintet, and with Utah visiting on Saturday afternoon it would be expected that the Wildcats earn the sweep. The Pac-12 needed some separation to ensure multiple NCAA bids (Cal and Arizona look to have the best resumes to date), but that doesn't seem likely to happen at this point.

3. Indiana proves to be too much for Illinois in the second half.
Illinois is a likely NCAA tournament team at this point, but they've done themselves no favors of late to say the least. The issue on Thursday night: Indiana's parade to the foul line, where they made 35 of 42 in their 84-71 win over the Fighting Illini. Illinois attempted just 15 free throws (making 12), and when a team can shoot 60% from the field and attempt 26 free throws (making 19) as Indiana did in the second half it's highly unlikely that they lose anywhere much less at sold-out Assembly Hall. Cody Zeller scored 22 points and grabbed five rebounds to lead the Hoosiers while Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo scored 18 apiece for a team that's won consecutive games for the first time since early January.

D.J. Richardson led the illini with 19 points and Meyers Leonard added 17, but the problem offensively for Illinois was that they essentially had three scorers to Indiana's four. Joe Bertrand and Tracy Abrams were both quiet in their starting roles, and Illinois made as many three-pointers as Indiana (seven) while attempting nine more (21-12). Indiana worked the ball inside of the arc for quality shots and it paid off, as they were frequent visitors to the foul line down the stretch. Bruce Weber's team has dropped five of their last six games, and with a trip to Michigan next on the schedule the Illini had better be careful. This isn't rock bottom, but things could spiral out of control if Illinois doesn't take care of their issues soon.

Quick Hitters

1. Minnesota was unable to take advantage of the opportunity to add a quality win to their resume as they fell at home to Wisconsin 68-61 in overtime. Wisconsin didn't make a field goal over the last ten-plus minutes of regulation but they were still able to get to the extra session, where Jordan Taylor and company took care of the Golden Gophers. At 17-8 overall and 5-7 in league play, Tubby Smith's squad still has home games against Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana and they need to take advantage of those opportunities.

2. While transfers have played a major role in the success being enjoyed at Iowa State and Cal State Fullerton, it can be argued that the transfer with the biggest impact is Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the Bulldogs' 70-60 win over Ole Miss, and Dee Bost added 15 points and 13 assists. Moultrie's play has been a big reason why Mississippi State has been one of the best teams in the SEC.

3. The Horizon League featured a matchup of the top two teams in the standings, and unfortunately for Cleveland State they couldn't get much of anything going offensively. Valparaiso jumped out to a 22-4 lead and really weren't challenged in a 59-41 win to take over sole possession of first place. Unfortunately for the Crusaders however, they lost Kevin Van Wijk to a knee injury in the first half and did not return. More should be learned about his status on Friday, and Van Wijk being out for an extended period of time would be a tough blow to take.

4. The race of interest in the South Division of the SoCon has been the one for second place (and the other first round SoCon tournament bye) thanks to the play of first-place Davidson, and Georgia Southern took a big step towards grabbing that spot with a 63-49 win over Wofford. The Eagles, who were led by Eric Ferguson's 15 points and 11 rebounds, moved to 10-4 in conference play while dropping the Terriers to 8-6.

5. Guess who could be making a charge into the top three of the MAAC: Fairfield. The Stags moved to 9-4 in conference play with a 60-54 win over Manhattan, who sits alone in third with a 10-4 mark. Sydney Johnson's team was expected to be Iona's toughest challenger but things haven't worked out that way to this point. With a deep rotation led by the likes of Derek Needham and Rakim Sanders however, Fairfield is more than capable of winning the automatic bid.

6. The Summit League race took a turn in the wrong direction for South Dakota State on Thursday night as they lost 72-68 at South Dakota, dropping two games behind Oral Roberts in the loss column. The Golden Eagles beat IUPUI 76-74 in overtime with Roderick Pearson's driving shot as time expired being the difference.

7. With UCSB off Bob Burton's Cal State Fullerton Titans could have taken over sole possession of second place in the Big West and that they did, scoring 60 points in the second half of their 100-94 win over UC Irvine. D.J. Seeley and Kwame Vaughn combined to score 51 points as the Titans won despite not having the injured Omondi Amoke at their disposal. Long Beach State is the class of the Big West, but Fullerton is just as capable as UCSB of knocking the 49ers off in the conference tournament.

Three Notable Performances

1. C Ben Aird (Utah Valley)
24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots in the Wolverines' 99-97 win at NJIT.

2. C Al'Lonzo Coleman (Presbyterian)
26 points (10-14 FG), 12 rebounds and two assists in the Blue Hose's 94-74 win over VMI. Coleman's shot 20-for-28 from the floor over the last two games.

3. G Alex Young (IUPUI)
34 points, seven rebounds and two steals in the Panthers' 76-74 overtime loss at Oral Roberts.

OVC Tournament Preview & Predictions

Evan Dorey — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 19:44:02 -0800

This is one in a series of my conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, giving a brief statistical review and picking out some of the key players, and presenting the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Ohio Valley

The OVC Tournament features the top 8 teams out of a 10 team league, with the quarterfinals being hosted at the home courts of the top 4 seeds, and the two later rounds hosted at the Sommet Center in Nashville.

OVC Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Tennessee Martin	90.91%	58.86%	30.81%
2	Austin Peay	80.67%	25.43%	10.06%
3	Murray St.	93.43%	69.19%	42.55%
4	Morehead St.	73.48%	30.09%	12.17%
5	Eastern Kentucky	26.52%	8.67%	2.81%
6	Tennessee St.	6.57%	1.87%	0.35%
7	Eastern Illinois	19.33%	3.50%	0.82%
8	Tennessee Tech	9.09%	2.37%	0.45%

It’s interesting to see that the #1 seeds and league champions aren’t the favorites, a title that belongs to #3 Murray St. The first four teams were separated by just two games in the standings, but the efficiency stats tell us that Martin and Murray St. are in a separate class.

#1 – Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (21-8, 14-4) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.114

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Tennessee-Martin has had an excellent season, claiming its first OVC regular season title, powered by a ten-game winning streak early in the conference schedule. The Skyhawks aren’t spectacular in any area, but do a lot of things well, and don’t make a lot of mistakes. Their main weakness is long-distance shooting, where they sit last in the OVC, but they make up for it by shooting 74% at the free throw line and earning a lot of extra possessions on the glass and by avoiding turnovers. Martin also defends well, managing to dominate the turnover margin by forcing a lot.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Lester Hudson, 26.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.4 SPG, 50.8 eFG% - The only player more important to his team than Hudson is some Curry guy that you might have heard about once or twice. Like Curry, Hudson’s shooting percentages aren’t that impressive on their own, but when you consider how many shots he takes, you really get a sense of how valuable he is. He also is a key player in lot of other areas, leading the Skyhawks in rebounding and steals, and putting up a very good assist rate.

6-1 JR Delrico Lane, 5.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.3 SPG, 51.5 eFG% - Lane doesn’t score much, but let’s face it, there’s not a lot of shots available once Hudson and second-best scorer Marquis Weddle get their share. Lane has done a good job getting the ball to Hudson, leading the OVC in assists, and like Hudson has an excellent steal rate.

#2 – Austin Peay Governors (17-12, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.053

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

The Governors face the strange situation of being lucky, as their record is somewhat better than their efficiency margin would suggest, but also unlucky, as a couple of losses in overtime are the only thing separating them from a conference title. Still, it’s telling that this is the #4 favorite by the log5 method, and to see them suffer an ‘upset’ wouldn’t be a big surprise. Austin Peay is the best pure shooting team in the conference, well over 50% from inside and at 39% from behind the arc, and the second best OVC offense overall. For all their ability to make shots, though, stopping opponents from doing the same has been difficult, especially from long distance, where they put up the conference’s worst defensive mark. The Governors are the only team of the top 4 seeds to give up more than a point-per possession, and their defensive woes will probably be their downfall.

Players to watch:

6-5 SR Drake Reed, 22.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 59.0 eFG% - In a lot of other conferences in the nation, Reed’s numbers would be good enough to make him a clear top scorer and the favorite for player of the year, but with Hudson taking the spotlight, Reed has to settle for being the OVC’s #2 scorer. Reed doesn’t take as large a proportion of his team’s shots as Hudson does, but he’s much more efficient, nearly 60% from inside the arc and a 40% outside shooter. He’s also in the top 5 in the conference in rebounding and rarely turns the ball over.

6-3 JR Wes Channels, 16.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 51.1 eFG% - Channels takes a similar proportion of the Governors’ shots as Reed, but is much more dependent on the three-pointer, and isn’t quite as good a percentage shooter. Still, he’s a good scoring guard who leads the team in assists, and combines with Reed to form a deadly inside-outside duo.

#3 – Murray St. Racers (17-12, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.129

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (1^st Round)

Murray St. may be the third seed, but don’t be surprised to see it run off with a 14^th NCAA tourney appearance, the best of any OVC team. The worst of the Racers’ five losses came by 6 points, meaning that their efficiency margin is the highest in the league. This is mostly due to a defense that is clearly the best in the OVC; opponents make few threes and turn the ball over a lot, a clear sign of how good the Racers are on the perimeter. They aren’t great at making threes themselves, but tend to focus on scoring from two, where they are efficient enough to have a decent offense overall. The Racers’ style probably contributes to why they’ve had so many close losses; their defensive, slow-paced game makes it a lot more difficult to get a big margin against weaker teams.

Players to watch:

6-2 SO Isaac Miles, 10.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.8 APG, 48.2 eFG% - The team’s second leading scorer is entering the tournament on a roll, having scored in double digits in each of the last five games, and has done this despite taking a lot of bad shots from behind the arc, where he hits less than 30%. He’s a good scorer from two who gets a lot of chances at the line, and while he puts up a lot of assists, he also has occasional bouts of major turnover trouble.

6-4 JR Danero Thomas, 11.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 47.1 eFG% - Thomas isn’t a great offensive player, but leads the Racers in scoring, and is a decent shooter, though like Miles he struggles from behind the arc. His best performance comes on the defensive end, where he’s the team’s best shot-blocker and one of the conference leaders in steals.

#4 – Morehead St. Eagles (16-15, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.066

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1984 (1^st Round)

The last of the teams that open the season at home, Morehead seemed to be destined for a tough year when they started 0-6, but had turned it around by the time conference play began, though they should be concerned after closing the season on a four-game losing streak. The Eagles are similar to Murray St., depending on inside play on the offensive end, but doing their best work defensively, but they aren’t as effective at either end as the Racers. Morehead isn’t too strong from the field, but is a good offensive rebounding team that does a great job getting to the line, and making shots once there. Defensively, the Eagles best play also comes inside, as they hold opponents to a conference-best 44.5% from two, and are good rebounders and shot-blockers.

Players to watch:

6-8 SO Kenneth Faried, 13.5 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.0 BPG, 56.4 eFG% - Faried is probably the conference’s best big man, fourth nationally in rebounding and the only Valley player averaging more than nine boards a game. He’s a 56% shooter from the field who also sits in the top 3 of the conference rankings in steals and blocks. The only real weakness in his game is his free throw shooting, where he’s worse than from the field, but he looks like he’ll be a great player in the conference in the years to come.

6-5 SR Leon Buchanan, 15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 53.5 eFG% - Buchanan is a great interior partner for Faried, a decent rebounder who shoots a good percentage, and unlike the sophomore, does a really great job at the free throw line. He’s an 81% shooter who makes a lot of appearances, and the points he gets there are enough to make him the team’s leading scorer.

#5 – Eastern Kentucky Colonels (18-12, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.036

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

Eastern Kentucky are an ideal example of how a team’s tempo can confuse those who don’t take it into account. The Colonels are easily the slowest team in the OVC, and a look at their point-per-game numbers would lead you to suggest that they are merely average offensively. In reality, the Colonels tend to be involved in the conference’s most offensively efficient games, boasting the OVC’s best offense, and the worst defense of the teams qualifying for the tournament. The Colonels are an offensive dream, putting up a 55.7 eFG% in conference, and one of the nation’s best marks in the category of the whole season, and having the OVC’s lowest turnover rate. Their problems come inside, where they don’t get much of their offense (the second-most three-dependent team in the country), and are terrible on the glass. Opponents shred EKU’s defense seemingly at will, shooting 54%, and even the ability to force a lot of turnovers doesn’t help much.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Mike Rose, 20.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 59.2 eFG% - The third 20 PPG player in the conference, Rose is the deadliest three-point shooter on a team that thrives behind the arc. Shooting 49% from long-distance is the kind of percentage we expect from an occasional shooter, not someone who puts up more than 200 attempts a season. He’s one of the team’s better rebounders and a solid defender, but his value is all in that shot.

6-7 SO Justin Stommes, 10.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 59.4 eFG% - Behind Rose, there are a group of other strong shooters, though none with the frequency, or the success, of the Colonels’ leading scorer. Stommes is the best of the bunch, and he provides a great alternative option from outside.

#6 – Tennessee St. Tigers (12-17, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.048

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1994 (1^st Round)

The Tigers made a lot of headlines, and got a lot of criticism, for firing Cy Alexander mid-season, but it worked out pretty well, as they went 6-1, including six straight wins entering the tournament, to manage a .500 finish in the conference. Tennessee St.’s defense is almost as bad as EKU’s, one of the worst in the tournament, but unlike the Colonels, TSU’s offense isn’t good enough to bail it out. Tennessee St. is focused on attacking the inside, and does it decently, but struggles with turnovers and free throws. The Tigers should watch their opponents to find a better example of inside play, as they allow 52% of attempts from inside, and don’t do much on the defensive glass either. They actually have the poorest odds of any team in the tournament, and a #6 seed probably flatters them somewhat.

Players to watch:

6-7 SO Darius Cox, 10.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 BPG, 54.3 eFG% - Cox is just fourth on the team in scoring, but is the most efficient offensive option when Tennessee St. has the ball, shooting over 50% from the field. He’s also an excellent rebounder, and a good shot-blocker.

6-8 SR Jerrell Houston, 14.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 51.4 eFG% - Houston is another good interior player, with similar numbers to Cox, but with a larger role in the offense, and a much bigger problem with turnovers.

#7 – Eastern Illinois Panthers (12-17, 8-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.019

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (1^st Round)

After talking about a couple of teams that struggle on the defensive end, Eastern Illinois are a bit of change of pace, decent defenders but the worst offensive team in the conference. A bright note for the Panthers’ offense is that they make a decent percentage of both threes and free throws; unfortunately, they don’t get to the line much, and take a large majority of their shots from inside the arc. Defensively, EIU is a solid team, especially inside, where it holds opponents to just 46% shooting. However, their offensive woes are too great to overcome, and they enter the tournament on a real low, losing their last six conference games.

Players to watch:

6-1 SO Tyler Laser, 11.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 56.5 eFG% - Laser isn’t a go-to scorer, but is the kind of pure shooter who can be really effective as a secondary option. He hits over 40% from behind the arc, and is 6^th nationally in free throw percentage, 50-of-52 on the season. He’s a good distributor of the ball and can also score from inside the arc, the kind of player who could really break out if he can handle a bigger role in future seasons.

6-3 JR Romain Martin, 15.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 53.5 eFG% - Martin is the other guy on the Panthers who can make threes, and while his percentage isn’t as high as Laser’s, he takes a lot more shots, and is much more important in the offense. Most of his value depends on his shooting, he doesn’t really contribute much in the other statistical areas.

#8 – Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (12-17, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.034

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1963 (1^st Round)

Tennessee Tech is the OVC’s fastest paced team, but its high speed hasn’t equalled highly effective offensive possessions, especially from two-point range, where you’d expect such a team to score in transition. Instead, the Golden Eagles are best when they put up threes, over 38% from behind the arc. This doesn’t happen nearly enough, though, with poor rebounding, turnovers, and a fairly two-point-heavy offense combining to limit the Eagles’ long distance-scoring. Defensively, Tennessee Tech force a lot of turnovers, but are terrible defensive rebounders and commit a lot of fouls.

Players to watch:

6-9 SR Daniel Northern, 12.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 49.4 eFG% - Northern is an excellent big-man in almost every area except field goal percentage, and it’s only his 49% from the field that holds him back. He’s the second-best rebounder in the OVC, and leads the conference in shot-blocking. He gets to the line a lot, and while his 65% from the stripe isn’t great, it’s not too bad, and shows a clear improvement from previous seasons.

6-2 JR Frank Davis, 10.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 59.2 eFG% - If you’re looking for a great example of how a player who isn’t the offensive focus can really thrive, Davis may be a perfect. He doesn’t take a lot of shots, but his contribution on the stat sheet will be basically limited to whatever he manages to score. He’s a 43% three-point shooter, and has taken more attempts from behind the arc than the Eagles’ next two most prolific shooters combined. He doesn’t turn the ball over much, but he’s not the kind of player who will do much beside shoot when he does get it.

My statistical all-OVC team:

Tennessee Martin SR G Lester Hudson, 26.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.4 SPG, 50.8 eFG%

Eastern Kentucky SR G Mike Rose, 20.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 59.2 eFG%

Austin Peay SR F Drake Reed, 22.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 59.0 eFG%

Morehead St. SR F Leon Buchanan, 15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 53.5 eFG%6-8,

Morehead St. SO F/C Kenneth Faried, 13.5 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.0 BPG, 56.4 eFG%

OVC Basketball Preview: 08-09

CHN — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:40:15 -0800

Conference Rank: 26th

10 year average: 22nd

Conference Page

All-OVC Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Marquis Weddle	UTM	So
G	Lester Hudson	UTM	Sr
G	Mike Rose	EKU	Sr
F	Daniel Northern	Tenn. Tech	Sr
F	Drake Reed	Austin Peay	Sr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Lester Hudson		Points: Lester Hudson 25.7 Rebounds: Daniel Northern 9.3 Assists: DeAndre Bray (JSU) 6.3

Ohio Valley Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

106	Murray State*	OVC	1	NCAA
162	Tennessee Martin	OVC	2
184	Austin Peay**	OVC	3
204	Tennessee St	OVC	4
215	Morehead State	OVC	5
286	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	6
304	SE Missouri St	OVC	7
322	Jacksonville St	OVC	8
328	Tennessee Tech	OVC	9
340	Eastern Illinois	OVC	10

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the OVC?

Other OVC Content

Conference Media Poll

Other

Top Shooting Guards: Lester Hudson

Rise & Fall: OVC

State of '08: Tennessee

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:22:22 -0700

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Duke or Carolina? BC or UMASS? Gonzaga or Washington.. or Washington State? What is the best program in each state? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a ranking of every program in every state.. based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

TENNESSEE

MEMPHIS - Whatever blueprint John Calipari follows seems to work. In his eighth year at Memphis, the Tigers advanced to the National Title game after making back to back Elite Eights. At UMASS, it also took eight years for him to reach the Final Four.

TENNESSEE - The Vols are in the midst of a good run under Bruce Pearl, three NCAA Tournaments in a row including back to back Sweet Sixteen trips. Before Pearl arrived, Tennessee hadn't made the Tourney in five years.

VANDERBILT - Vandy has been a consistent winner the last five seasons under Kevin Stallings. There's been four 20-win seasons, 5 postseason trips, and a pair of Sweet Sixteen runs. After winning 26 games last year (the 2nd best in school history), the team's first round loss to Siena was a bit of a downer.

BELMONT - Long-time coach Rick Byrd is suddenly the leader of a mid-major power. Belmont has made three NCAA Tournaments in a row, and is once agan favored to win the Atlantic Sun in 08-09.

AUSTIN PEAY - Dave Loos is nearing 20 years at APSU, a time in which the Govs have consistently been one of the top teams in the OVC. In the last decade, there hasn't even been a sub-.500 finish in conference play. In the last six years, they've made 2 NCAA trips and one NIT.

6. MIDDLE TENNESSEE - Before Kermit Davis took over in 2002, MTSU was coming off a brutal season that included just 4 D1 wins. While Davis hasn't led the Blue Raiders to the Big Dance, the program has made amazing strides under his leadership. Last year, the team advanced to the Sun Belt finals, and many feel they are that league's team to beat in '09.

7. CHATTANOOGA - Just as Davidson is the current Southern Conference darling, Chattanooga was once the league's team to beat. The last decade has been a bit more pedestrian however, with just a lone tourney trip in 2005, though the team came close in '03 & '04 as well. The last few teams have been mediocre, with win totals boosted by playing an oddly high amount of D2 teams.

8. EAST TENNESSEE STATE - With the exception of a horrible 2005 campaign, ETSU has been one of the A-Sun's most consistent winners. In 2004, the Bucs won the league title, in 2007 they dominated the regular season before falling to Belmont in the finals, and they were solid once again in 2008.

9. TENNESSEE TECH - The Golden Eagles haven't won their conference tournament in over 40 years, but they've come close in the last decade. From 2000-2003, Tech was one of the best teams in the OVC but they couldn't get over the postseason hump. The last five years have been up and down however, and this year could be one of the downers.

10. LIPSCOMB - From 2002 to 2004, this was one of the country's worst program. But after those initial growing pains, this young program has made nice progress in the A-Sun. 2006 was the program's best season with 21 wins, a 143 RPI, and a close loss to Belmont in the conference title game. This year, expectations are a bit muted.

11. TENNESSEE STATE - In the early part of the decade, Tennessee State was one of the country's worst programs. But a lot of progress has been made, and last year was the first time in a decade that the Tigers won an OVC Tournament game. Not only did TSU win one game, but they made it to the conference championship.

12. TENNESSEE-MARTIN - Over the last 20 years, UTM has hovered between bad and worse, with only 2 winning seasons in that period. But last year was surprisingly mediocre with a 15-16 D1 record and 11-9 OVC finish. Now, there's suddenly high expectations for the first time, and some publications are projecting a league title.

* Note: An unfinished version of this article, with the wrong ranking (Lipscomb in 12th) was originally posted, but it has since been corrected.

Last: South Carolina - Next: Texas

State of '08: The Introduction (& State list/links)

Ohio Valley Conference Preview

CHN — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 10:30:30 -0800

Conference Previews | Top 144 | 06-07 Preview Home

Ohio Valley Preview

Conference Rank: 27th

Conference Page

All-Conference

Player of the Year - Shawn Witherspoon, Murray St, F

Mike Robinson, Eastern Illinois, G

Shaun Williams, Morehead St, F

Clarence Matthews, Tennessee St, F

Courtney Bradley, Jacksonville St, F

Nat'l	Team (Click for Preview)	Conf	Tourney
119	Murray State	1	NCAA
157	Tennessee Tech	2
164	Samford	3
191	Austin Peay	4
239	Tennessee St	5
254	SE Missouri St	6
262	Eastern Kentucky	7
297	Jacksonville St	8
305	Morehead State	9
318	Eastern Illinois	10
326	Tennessee Martin	11

Head Coach Q&A's

Mike Sutton - Tennessee Tech