West Virginia

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 46 to 60

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 08:05:33 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 46 to 60.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 45-60

46 Miami Another year under Jim Larranaga should find the Hurricanes on the inside of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Malcolm Grant departs but he did not have a terribly good season anyways.

47 Butler After a down year, Butler should once again be the class of the Horizon League. Transfer Rotnei Clarke gives them a scoring-punch that was severely lacking this year. Three solid guards enter as freshmen, who should help with depth.

48 Colorado Carlon Brown and Austin Dufault are not small loses, but the hope is that Andre Roberson blossoms into a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate. The Buffs recruiting haul is easily their best of the last decade.

49 BYU The Cougars lose veterans Hartsock and Abouo but should still settle into their usual bubble-bound slot. Another year of improvement from Matt Carlino should help.

50 Pittsburgh Coming off of a disastrous season, Pittsburgh has no where to go but up. Although Gibbs and Robinson depart, the Panthers welcome 4th ranked recruit Steven Adams, one of their best-ever recruits. A healthy Tray Woodall would certainly help as well.

51 UCF After being a fringe-bubble team that last two years, UCF will once again be hoping to make the tourney. Although PG AJ Rompza graduates, the team returns solid All-CUSA caliber players in Keith Clanton, Marcus Jordan, and Isaiah Sykes.

52 Temple The Owls should take a step back with key senior losses, including leader Ramone Moore, but expect them to still be competitive in the A10. Khalif Wyatt could score 20 ppg now that the team is fully in his hands. The recruiting haul might be Temple's best since 2007.

53 Xavier Besides leader Tu Holloway, they also loses Kenny Frease and Andre Walker. Role players like Travis Taylor and Jeff Robinson will really need to step it up if Xavier wants to makes its 8th tourney in a row. 4-star recruit Semaj Christon is capable of contributing at PG from day one.

54 UCONN Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond will presumably go pro, and the roster looks pretty thin without them. Last year's shock tourney run covers up what has been 3 years in a row of .500 or worse basketball in Big East play. Add in the potential sanctions and Calhoun's health, and you have yourself a lot of questions.

55 Belmont Seniors Drew Hanlen, Mick Hedgepeth, and Scott Saunders depart, but Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark are still two of the A-Sun's top players. Incoming PG Craig Bradshaw is one of Belmont's better pickups and should fit right into the program.

56 South Florida Three seniors that played over 25 minutes per game depart, but South Florida shouldn't expect too much of a drop-off. USF's 4-person recruiting class is solid for their standards, but still mediocre as far as the Big East goes.

57 Mississippi St With Dee Bost a senior and Arnett Moultrie presumably going pro, Mississippi St loses its leading scorer, passer, rebounder, and defender. Although an underrated 5-person recruiting class was set to come in, Rick Stanbury's retirement does open some questions.

58 West Virginia For a team that often struggled to score the ball, it will be interesting to see how they'll manage without Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant. Those two scored almost 50% of the Mountaineers points. Aaric Murray and Juwan Staten are solid transfers who will help.

59 Southern Miss USM was never as good as their gaudy RPI suggested.. Graduations will put a major dent into their major strength, which was depth, but their top two scorers do return.

60 Iowa St The key for Iowa St is whether Royce White decides to go pro. I'm assuming here that he does, which would mean the Cyclones lose their 3 leading scorers. A pair of solid transfers enter the mix, as well as their best recruiting class in a few years.

Also Under Consideration (alphabetical order)

Akron

California

Harvard

Illinois St

Minnesota

Nevada

Ole Miss

Oregon

Providence

Vanderbilt

Virginia

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 45

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 01:47:35 -0700

With CHN's Greg Mengelt handling previews and predictions for every game the daily preview will look a little different for the NCAA tournament, with the focus being the game of the day in each region. Below are the games on Thursday's slate that you should make time for, and with four networks (CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV) showing every game in its entirety, there's no excuse (besides a lack of TVs or laptops) for you to not have a multiple TV/computer setup in your home. Enjoy the games.

Albuquerque: (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana
2:10 PM EST; TNT

Many have gone with the Grizzlies in this one, citing the Badgers' reliance on the 3-pointer and the quality of Montana guards Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Those are indeed good reasons to go with Wayne Tinkle's team to win, not to metion Derek Selvig insde. However keep in mind that Bo Ryan is 9-1 at Wisconsin in opening games in the NCAA tournament, having won five straight.

They'll be prepared for what Montana looks to throw at them, and with an experienced leader in point guard Jordan Taylor Wisconsin will be tough to knock off. Cherry will draw that defensive assignment, and the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year is capable of getting the job done. The winner gets the winner of the Vanderbilt/Harvard matchup on Saturday, with the winner of this four-team pod off to Boston for next week's East Regional.

Rest of the day in Albuquerque
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State; 7:27 PM EST (truTV)
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Louisville: (8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
9:20 PM EST; TBS

Many have jumped to the conclusion that the Huskies will take on Kentucky on Saturday, and that's a very dangerous position to take especially if the UConn players take the same approach. At 6-9, 270 Iowa State's Royce White is the kind of player that UConn hasn't seen this season, as he runs the point and is just as good at distributing as he is at scoring himself. Roscoe Smith will iikely get the call defensively but he doesn't have the physical strength of White.

Just as important for the Huskies will be the play of their big men, led by Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi. Outside of White the Huskies have a clear edge in the paint, but that's only as effective as they make it. How well UConn defends the three will also be important as the Cyclones are a very good perimeter shooting team. Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen can both knock down shots, and Chris Babb will have the task of guarding Jeremy Lamb. This one's going to go down to the wire.

Rest of the day in Louisville
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State, 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Marquette vs. (14) BYU, 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky (TBS)

Pittsburgh: (7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia
7:20 PM EST; TNT

Arguably the most overrated aspect of this game is the fact that Pittsburgh is 90 minutes away from Morgantown. Sure the Mountaineers will likely enjoy an advantage when considering the crowd but it isn't as if natives of the Steel City are lining up to cheer on WVU. Gonzaga should (and likely will) be more concerned with senior foward Kevin Jones, who led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre' need to bring it from an effort standpoint if they're to slow Jones down.

The other key aspect of this matchup is the decision-making of West Virginia's guards, most notably Truck Bryant. If the senior's struggling in this regard then the freshmen are likely to follow suit. Kevin Pangos has been one of the best freshman guards in the country for Gonzaga, and classmate Gary Bell Jr. is also capable of breaking out. Keeping WVU off the boards is the one thing Gonzaga has to do in order to win, but that's definitely possible.

Rest of the day in Pittsburgh
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss, 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) UNC Asheville, 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (MD), 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Portland: (5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU
7:15 PM EST; CBS

There weren't too many people thrilled with this matchup, especially if you're a fan of the mid-major. Both the Shockers and Rams have the potential to reach New Orleans, but after this battle only one of them will remain in the field. VCU is going to throw their "havoc" system at Wichita State throughout, and if the Shockers are unable to handle that pressure it could be a long night in Portland. Joe Ragland was very good this season for WSU and they've got other solid options on the perimeter as well.

There are two keys for VCU: Bradford Burgess plays well, and D.J. Haley and Juvonte Reddic can combine to perform well against All-MVC center Garrett Stutz. Gregg Marshall's Shockers have enough talent and depth to handle the VCU pressure with a minimal number of turnovers, and if they can the dynamic of the game will change. Both head coaches will be hot names on the open job market during the offseason but that's of little concern to either team at this point in the season.

Rest of the day in Portland
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson, 1:40 PM EST (TBS)
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State, 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State, 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Gonzaga vs West Virginia: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 23:07:40 -0700

(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia: East Region

Records

Gonzaga 25-6, 13-3 WCC (At large)

West Virginia 19-13, 9-9 Big East (At large)

Time: 7:20 p.m. Thursday

TV: TNT

Location: Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pa.

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (15) Loyola, Md., Saturday

Rankings

Gonzaga No. 30 AP; No. 30 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Gonzaga 25

West Virginia 50

Line: West Virginia -1 (O/U 131½)

Players to Watch

Gonzaga: F Elias Harris, 6-7 Jr. (13.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 50.5% FG); C Robert Sacre, 7-0 Sr. (11.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.5 bpg); G Kevin Pangos, 6-1 Fr. (13.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 40.5% 3s). Pangos had an outstanding freshman season for the Bulldogs, but he has struggled recently. He made just 3-of-18 shots in Gonzaga’s overtime loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC title game. Pangos has hit 74-of-185 3s this season, but he was just 1-of-10 against St. Mary’s after burning the Gaels for 27 points in their previous meeting.

West Virginia: F Kevin Jones, 6-8 Sr. (20.1 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 51.3% FG); G Darryl “Truck” Bryant, 6-2 Sr. (17.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.8 apg); C Deniz Kilicli, 6-9 Jr. (10.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 50.2% FG). Jones, who had 25 points and 10 rebounds in the Mountaineers’ 71-67 overtime loss to UConn in the conference tourney, led the Big East in scoring and rebounding and was named 1^st-Team All-Big East.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Gonzaga: Gonzaga is really talented and long. Harris has the skill and Sacre the size to compete with any team in the country. Pangos, Gary Bell and David Stockton comprise a young, talented backcourt. The Bulldogs gets offensive contributions from eight different players, and they play solid defense. They get to the foul line with regularity and shoots 71.5 percent while there.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are tough. Jones and Kilicli will battle anyone in the paint. Behind the duo, WVU has a plus-7.8 rebounding margin, it averages 15 offensive rebounds per game and it has one of the nation’s best rebounding percentages at 55.4. At times, it plays sound, stifling defense. Opponents shot just 45 percent from the field and 31.7 from the 3-point line during the season.

Why Makes Each Team Vulnerable

Gonzaga: Inconsistency has plagued the Bulldogs, as it has for several years now. They have inexplicable losses to Illinois, BYU and San Francisco. Shot selection is one reason why. With talented big like Harris and Sacre, the Bulldogs sometimes rely on the 3-point shot too much. Turnovers have been another issue. Gonzaga turns it over 13.4 times per game and has just a 1.03-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers have pretty good athleticism but not a lot of skill. Outside of Jones and Bryant, there’s not a Mountaineer that gives opponents any semblance of fear. West Virginia shot just 44 percent from the floor – including 41.7 in Big East play – and only 30 from the 3-point line.

The Bottom Line: This is one pf the most interesting matchups of the first round. Gonzaga can be really good, but it rarely lives up to expectations. If Pangos, Bell and Stockton are hitting 3-point shots, the Bulldogs should win a close one. The best bet, however, is the over.

The Pick: Gonzaga 74, West Virginia 70

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

2012 All-America Team: CollegeHoops.net

CHN — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 22:44:56 -0800

Player of the Year Anthony Davis, only a freshman, highlights CollegeHoops.net's 2012 All-America Team. Davis, the nation's leading shot-blocker, led Kentucky to a 30-1 regular season record. Davis is joined on the First Team by Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Draymond Green of Michigan State, Doug McDermott of Creighton, and Isaiah Canaan of Murray State.

Davis is one of only two freshmen on the list, as teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist made the Third Team.

CollegeHoops.net All-America Teams were voted on by staffers Shawn Siegel, Raphielle Johnson, Greg Mengelt, and Jon Teitel.

Last year's winner was BYU's Jimmer Fredette.

Player of the Year: F Anthony Davis, Kentucky, Fr

First Team All-American

G Isaiah Canaan, Murray St, Jr
F Doug McDermott, Creighton, So
F Draymond Green, Michigan St, Sr
F Thomas Robinson, Kansas, Jr
F Anthony Davis, Kentucky, Fr

Second Team All-American

G Scott Machado, Iona, Sr
G Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas, Sr
G Damian Lillard, Weber St, Jr
F Jared Sullinger, Ohio St, So
F Tyler Zeller, North Carolina, Jr

Third Team All-American

G Marcus Denmon, Missouri, Sr
G John Jenkins, Vanderbilt, Jr
F John Henson, North Carolina, Jr
F Mike Scott, Virginia, Sr
F Kevin Jones, West Virginia, Sr

Fourth Team All-American

G Kendall Marshall, North Carolina, So
G Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette, Sr
F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky, Fr
F Will Barton, Memphis, So
F Jae Crowder, Marquette, Sr

Honorable Mention

G Harrison Barnes, North Carolina, So
G Kenny Boynton, Florida, Jr
G J'Covan Brown, Texas, Jr
F Perry Jones III, Baylor, So
F Kris Joseph, Syracuse, Sr
G Jeremy Lamb, UCONN, So
F Mike Moser, UNLV, So
F Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi St, Jr
F John Shurna, Northwestern, Sr
F Royce White, Iowa St, So

Huskies, Bulls Winners on Big East "Bubble Day"

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 21:39:12 -0800

Wednesday shaped up as a big day at Madison Square Garden, as four of the eight teams in action were looking to boost their respective NCAA tournament resumes. Two of the four teams, Connecticut and West Virginia, kicked things off in a tight contest that neither team led by more than eleven points (WVU). And while there were plenty of head-scratching decisions made down the stretch by both teams, Jim Calhoun's Huskies were the ones best able to navigate those issues, winning 71-67 in overtime to advance to Thursday's quarterfinals.

UConn gets the ultimate "signature win" opportunity as they take on a Syracuse games that's lost just one game this season and beaten the Huskies twice. Shabazz Napier led the way for the Huskies with 26 points, six assists and four rebounds, eventually fouling out early in overtime after waiting too long and ending up having to force a challenged three at the end of regulation. But his decision-making issues were trumped by West Virginia guard Truck Bryant, who forced some really bad shots down the stretch as the Mountaineers sputtered offensively.

"When coach asked us to run a play, we have to execute it as well as possible, and I don't think we do a good job of that," said Kevin Jones, who finished with 25 points and ten rebounds. "Also, we don't do a good job of staying strong with the ball. We let people take the ball from us, and it's kind of a matter of getting out?toughed the last five minutes."

Turnovers were one issue, but the biggest was the fact that WVU failed to get the ball to Jones down the stretch. The senior from nearby Mount Vernon, NY, who many claimed should have been Big East Player of the Year, attempted a shot with 7:16 remaining in regulation and didn't take another until he missed a three with 1:30 to go...in overtime. Some of the credit can be given to Andre Drummond, whose performance on the defensive end improved greatly in the second half, but the overwhelming feeling is that WVU didn't execute well enough to get Jones the ball.

The Mountaineers squandered a dominant effort on the glass, as they grabbed 26 offensive boards and out-rebounded UConn 47-31 on the afternoon. But those issues executing, with the guards as a whole struggling to get the ball where it needed to go, along with Jeremy Lamb waking up with Napier finished to knock down a key three-pointer with 1:05 remaining in overtime, proved costly. WVU played a good non-conference schedule and that's something the selection committee tends to reward, so the Mountaineers will likely end up in the Big Dance.

It's not so cut and dry at this point for Seton Hall, with the Pirates now turning into spectators following their 61-55 loss to Louisville. Kevin Willard's Pirates approach Selection Sunday having lost four of their last six games, and was a struggle offensively against the Cardinals. Point guard Jordan Theodore finished with a team-high 17 points but just two assists, with the first not coming until nine minutes remaining in the game. Have the Pirates done enough to be a part of the field? It's going to be a stressful couple of days for Seton Hall, who hope that their high strength of schedule can push them through.

USF completed the night with a 56-47 win over Villanova, and the key at this point for Stan Heath's Bulls is to simply keep winning. Freshman point guard Anthony Collins led the way with 17 points and four assists in what was an ugly game offensively, and a third win over the Wildcats won't do a whole lot for their resume. But to get a matchup with Notre Dame is a great opportunity for the Bulls, who with a win on Thursday night would make their first-ever semifinal appearance. The simplest thing for a bubble team to do at this time of the season is to make sure they live to fight another day. Connecticut and USF did just that on Wednesday.

Three Notable Performances

1. C Mike Muscala (Bucknell) and G C.J. McCollum (Lehigh)
Muscala accounted for 30 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots in the Bison's 82-77 loss to Lehigh in the Patriot League final. McCollum led the Mountain Hawks with 29 points, five assists, three rebounds and three steals.

2. G Damian Lillard (Weber State) and F Mathias Ward (Montana)
Lillard finished with 29 points, ten rebounds and seven assists in the Wildcats' 85-66 loss to Montana in the Big Sky final. Ward led the Grizzlies with 23 points, knocking down ten of his sixteen shots from the field to go along with eight rebounds.

3. F Rian Pearson (Toledo)
20 points and 15 rebounds in the Rockets' 75-72 win over Northern Illinois.

Wednesday Predictions: Big Sky, NEC, Patriot Finals & More

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 08:16:51 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking (just about) every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's three key championship games. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG SKY CHAMPIONSHIP: AT MONTANA

(2) Weber State (24-5, 14-2) at (1) Montana (24-6, 15-1)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Weber State 80-64; Feb. 28 – Montana 66-51. RPI: Montana 82, Weber State 69. Analysis: The Grizzlies are simply the better team. With the homecourt advantage, it should be a comfortable win for Montana. Pick: Montana 71, Weber State 61.

NORTHEAST CHAMPIONSHIP: AT LIU

(3) Robert Morris (24-9, 13-5) at (1) Long Island (24-8, 16-2)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – Robert Morris 75-66. RPI: Long Island 91, Robert Morris 109. Analysis: Velton Jones is one of the hottest players in the country and should help the Colonials punch their ticket. Line: Long Island -1. Pick: Robert Morris 69, Long Island 65.

PATRIOT LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP: AT BUCKNELL

(2) Lehigh (25-7) at (1) Bucknell (11-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – Bucknell 68-61*; Feb. 16 – Lehigh 56-53*. RPI: Bucknell 89, Lehigh 113. Analysis: Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum is a superstar, but beating the Bison on the road twice may be too much to ask. Line: Bucknell -5. Pick: Bucknell 66, Lehigh 59.

BIG EAST SECOND ROUND: AT NEW YORK CITY

(8) West Virginia (19-12, 9-9) vs. (9) Connecticut (19-12, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 9 – Connecticut 64-57. RPI: Connecticut 33, West Virginia 42. Analysis: Two good performances in a row may be too much to ask of this UConn team. Line: UConn -2. Pick: West Virginia 68, Connecticut 62.

(5) Georgetown (22-7, 12-6) vs. (13) Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Pitt 72-60. RPI: Georgetown 9, Pittsburgh 90. Analysis: Pitt may not win the game, but the Panthers should cover in a low-scoring game. Line: Georgetown -6. Pick: Georgetown 57, Pittsburgh 53.

(7) Louisville (22-9, 10-8) vs. (10) Seton Hall (20-11, 8-10)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Louisville 60-51*. RPI: Louisville 28, Seton Hall 60. Analysis: Great matchup for Louisville. The Cardinals defense will lead them to a big win. Pick: Louisville 59, Seton Hall 47.

(6) South Florida (19-12, 12-6) vs. (14) Villanova (13-18, 5-13)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – South Florida 74-57*; Feb. 15 – South Florida 65-51. RPI: South Florida 43, Villanova 105. Analysis: Love the Wildcats for the upset. Pick: Villanova 55, South Florida 52.

PAC-12 FIRST ROUND: AT LOS ANGELES

(8) Washington State (15-15, 7-11) vs. (9) Oregon State (17-13, 7-11)

Tipoff: 3:10 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Washington State 81-76; Feb. 9 – Washington State 83-73. RPI: Washington State 170, Oregon State 151. Analysis: Close game. The Beavers will at least cover. Line: Oregon State -3½. Pick: Oregon State 78, Washington State 76.

(5) UCLA (18-13, 11-7) vs. (12) USC (6-25, 1-17)

Tipoff: 5:40 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – UCLA 66-47*; Feb. 15 – UCLA 64-54. RPI: UCLA 103, USC 259. Analysis: UCLA is playing its best basketball, rallying around Coach Ben Howland. The Bruins may make a run in this tourney. Line: UCLA -12½. Pick: UCLA 73, USC 51.

(7) Stanford (20-10, 10-8) vs. (10) Arizona State (10-20, 6-12)

Tipoff: 9:10 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 2 – Stanford 68-44. RPI: Stanford 96, Arizona State 248. Analysis: The Cardinal will blow out Arizona State for the second time this season. Line: Stanford -10. Pick: Stanford 71, Arizona State 54.

(6) Colorado (19-11, 11-7) vs. (11) Utah (6-24, 3-15)

Tipoff: 11:40 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Colorado 73-33; Feb. 18 – Colorado 55-48. RPI: Colorado 81, Utah 265. Analysis: The Buffaloes are really pretty good, and Utah … isn’t. Line: Colorado -11½. Pick: Colorado 66, Utah 51.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 137-103-3

Wednesday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 07:13:22 -0800

Day two of the Big East Championship features four teams looking to improve their chances of reaching the NCAA tournament, with the biggest game of the day being the first. Nine-seed Connecticut, who opener their tournament with an 81-67 win over DePaul on Tuesday, takes on eight-seed West Virginia with the winner likely locking up a tournament berth. These two teams met once during the regular season, a 64-57 UConn victory at the XL Center on January 9th, and with so much change over the nearly two months since that game there may not be a whole lot to take from it.

But there is rebounding, something the Mountaineers did extremely well in defeat and had they not gone cold in the second half Bob Huggins' team likely wins the game. WVU grabbed 20 offensive rebounds in the Januar meeting...twenty. The Mountaineers have been a very good team at hitting the offensive glass for most of Huggins' tenure at his alma mater, with the big men expected to give maximum effort in that department. This season West Virginia averages 14.7 offensive rebounds per game, which works out to the Mountaineers grabbing 40.7% of their misses per statsheet.com.

Kevin Jones, who led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season, has led the way and maybe he uses the slight of not being a unanimous All-Big East selection as motivation (this is the injustice Mountaineer fans should be upset about as opposed to the Player of the Year award). UConn clearly will try to account for Jones with their stable of big men, but if Deniz Kilicli brings the effort as well it will be tough for the Husky big men from a toughness standpoint. Roscoe Smith has played well of late and at this point is a key figure in the rotation, while getting the likes of Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi to play well on a consistent basis has remained an issue.

Guard play will be critical as well, especially with the Mountaineers calling on freshman guards Gary Browne and Jabarie Hinds in addition to senior Truck Bryant. Bryant needs to consistently make sound decisions if WVU is to be successful, and the same can be said for UConn's Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier. The guards who play smarter will lead the winning team in this one.

Also on the bubble "stage" are Seton Hall and USF, with both teams likely needing wins albeit for different reasons. The Pirates looked to be a safe bet for the Field of 68 before dropping games to Rutgers and DePaul, so a win over Louisville would do a great deal for their hopes. USF simply needs to keep playing, as their unbalanced league slate has devalued their 12 league wins in the eyes of many.

Big East - Second Round
#8 West Virginia vs. #9 Connecticut, Noon (ESPN)
#5 Georgetown vs. #13 Pittsburgh, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#7 Louisville vs. #10 Seton Hall, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#6 USF vs. #14 Villanova, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Big 12 - First Round
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Texas A&M, 7:00 p.m. (Big 12 Network)
#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network)

Not a whole lot to see here, other than the fact that the two winners will move on to face Kansas and Missouri on Thursday. Oklahoma likely has the most to gain from today's action, as a win would guarantee a .500 (or better) finish and put them in line for a postseason berth in Lon Kruger's first season. The extra game and practice action can do a great deal for the Sooners, almost akin to what bowl practices can do for college football teams. The other three will need to win the conference tournament to either guarantee a .500 finish (Oklahoma State) or go to the postseason.

Big Sky - Title Game
#2 Weber State at #1 Montana, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The two best teams in the Big Sky all season long meet in Missoula with the winner getting the NCAA berth and the loser headed to the NIT. Weber State and Montana split the regular season series, with the home team winning both by double digits. The backcourt battle could be the best in the country on today's schedule, with Weber State's Damian Lillard and Scott Bamforth battling Montana's Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. One area to watch tonight will be offensive rebounding, something the Wildcats have done well in both meetings. If Darin Mahoney and Kyle Tresnak can control the boards once again they can win in Missoula, and with the Grizzlies not being the best rebounding team that's definitely possible. Unlike the first two meetings, look for the rubber match to go right down to the wire.

Conference USA - First Round
#7 Rice vs. #10 East Carolina, 1:00 p.m. (CSS)
#6 Marshall vs. #11 SMU, 3:30 p.m. (CSS)
#8 UTEP vs. #9 Houston, 7:30 p.m. (CSS)
#5 UAB vs. #12 Tulane, 10:00 p.m. (CSS)

Similar to the Big 12's first round there's not much to see in Memphis in regards to who will make the NCAA tournament out of Conference USA (Memphis, who will reach the Sweet 16, is a lock. Who joins them?). UAB, Marshall, Rice and Houston are all playing for postseason berths, with the Thundering Herd having the best shot at finding somewhere to play next week. The other three all need multiple wins to ensure finishing .500 or better, and outside of the Herd (led by DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts) and UAB (Cameron Moore is a player) it's tough to find any team capable of making a run to either Friday or Saturday.

MAC - Second Round
#12 Northern Illinois vs. #8 Western Michigan, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#7 Toledo vs. #11 Central Michigan, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

The winners of tonight's action in Cleveland move on to battle Ohio and Kent State on Thursday night in the newly recorfigured MAC tournament, and for the Huskies and Chippewas to reach this point is a surprise in itself. NIU takes on a Western Michigan team that swept the regular season series, with the game in Kalamazoo being the closer of the two. CMU looks to be in better shape from a competitive standpoint in their matchup with Toledo, as the Chips lost to the Rockets by just five in their second meeting. Rian Pearson leads the way for the Rockets, and if CMU finds away to neutralize him they've got a shot at the win.

MEAC - Opening Round/Quarterfinals
# 1 Savannah State vs. #8 Hampton, 6:00 p.m.
# 2 Norfolk State vs. #10 Howard, 8:00 p.m.

The top two seeds begin their march towards the MEAC's automatic bid, and both Savannah State and Norfolk State will be favored to get to the semifinals. Horace Broadnax's Tigers won the regular season title outright, quite the achievement for a team not only picked to finish 11th in the preseason poll but also in its first season as a full Division I (and MEAC) member. NSU, who many expected to win the league, finished a game out of first and has the MEAC's best player in forward Kyle O'Quinn. Hampton may be able to give Savannah State some trouble and the same goes for Howard, but both favorites should move on.

NEC - Title Game
#3 Robert Morris at #1 LIU Brooklyn, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The NEC delivers a rematch of last season's title game, a battle that went right down to the wire with the home team (LIU Brooklyn) winning by a basket. The rematch should be just as close, with Velton Jones leading the Colonials and forwards Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere pacing the Blackbirds. LIU has to rebound, something they haven't always done consistently this season, if they're to defend their home floor and make a return trip to the Big Dance. RMU has done a solid job defensively of late, and that will be the ticket for them if they're to win an NEC title on the road for the second time in three seasons.

Pac-12 - First Round
#8 Washington State vs. # 9 Oregon State, 3:10 p.m. (FSN)
# 5 UCLA vs. # 12 USC, 5:40 p.m. (FSN)
# 7 Stanford vs. # 10 Arizona State, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
# 6 Colorado vs. # 11 Utah, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

The Pac-12 is essentially a tournament where one could toss two NCAA bids in the middle of the Staples Center and let all 12 teams fight to the death for them. The resumes are that bad, and without any true separation there isn't a clear favorite either. Colorado and Utah kick off their first Pac-12 tournament experiences and the Buffs will be favored to beat the Utes in the final game of the day. But a sleeper to grab the automatic berth may lie in the second game, as UCLA is coming off of a home sweep of the Washington schools as they brushed off the Sports Illustrated article that painted the program in a negative light. If Joshua Smith can stay on the floor and be a factor, there's no reason why the Bruins can't win the tournament. Oregon State and Stanford could also make a run, with the Cardinal likely being the better choice despite the presence of OSU's Jared Cunningham.

Patriot - Title Game
#2 Lehigh at #1 Bucknell, 7:00 p.m. (CBS SN)

The road team won both meetings during the regular season, with a C.J. McCollum dagger giving the Mountain Hawks the win in the second meeting. McCollum and Bucknell's Mike Muscala were the two best players in the Patriot League this season, with McCollum winning Player of the Year. But the key for the Mountain Hawks may be to make sure that Joe Willman doesn't have a big night alongside Muscala. Willman averaged 10.8 points per game and was a Second Team All-Patriot League selection, as was guard Cameron Ayers. Inside for Lehigh Gabe Knutson and Holden Grenier have both played well this season, providing good frontcourt scoring to balance out what McCollum brings to the table.

Southland - Quarterfinals
# 2 Stephen F. Austin vs. # 7 Sam Houston St, 1:00 p.m.
# 3 Lamar vs. # 6 Northwestern St., 3:30 p.m.
# 1 UT Arlington vs. # 8 Nicholls St., 6:00 p.m.
# 4 McNeese St. vs. # 5 UTSA, 8:30 p.m.

The Southland tournament gets going today (there's an off day between the semifinals and title game), and regular season champ UT-Arlington enters as the favorite. LaMarcus Reed III was one of the leaders for a team that lost just one game in conference play, but they won't go unchallenged in Katy either. Reigning tournament champion UTSA returned a number of key players from last season's team, most notable Melvin Johnson III and reserve Kannor Burrage leading the way. Pat Knight's Lamar Cardinals are another possible winner, provided seniors like Mike James take the reins from a leadership standpoint. Look for there to be an upset or two on our way to the championship.

SWAC -Quarterfinals
#2 Texas Southern vs. #7 Alabama A&M, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#1 Mississippi Valley State vs. #8 Jackson State, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

MIssissippi Valley State begins tournament play with Jackson State, and while they ran through the SWAC without much fuss, the Delta Devils' overall record will make them a 16-seed should they get the automatic bid. Paul Crosby, Terrence Joyner and company have taken nearly a third of their shots from beyond the arc this season, and if those shots are falling MVSU is a tough team to beat. Jackson State played them close in both meetings, so the question for tonight is whether or not they have enough to get over the hump. Texas Southern gets the two-seed due to Southern's ineligibility, and they swept Alabama A&M during the regular season with both wins by double digits.

North Carolina Wins ACC Title: Saturday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 06:10:15 -0800

Three teams (Belmont, Murray State and UNC Asheville) punched their tickets to the NCAA tournament on Saturday.

1. North Carolina jumps out to a big lead at Cameron, spoling Duke's Senior Day and winning the ACC regular season title.
Pouring salt in the wound of another isn't ever a good idea, and apparently the showing of a montage of big plays late in Duke's comeback win in Chapel Hill fired up UNC point guard Kendall Marshall. Marshall, and by extension his teammates, felt disrespected and as a result the Tar Heels had a little extra motivation to go along with the desire to beat their rival and win the ACC regular season crown. UNC jumped out to a 22-5 lead, withstood a Blue Devil rally in the second half and went on to win 88-70. Marshall led the way with 20 points and ten assists, knocking down seven of his fifteen shots from the field to make a defense that allowed him to shoot pay. In fact, Marshall was one of three starters to post a double-double, as Tyler Zeller (19 points, ten rebounds) and John Henson (13 points, ten rebounds) also had good nights.

All five starters finished in double figures for the Tar Heels, who also bludgeoned Duke on the glass 45-28 with 14 offensive rebounds. Mason (17 points, four rebounds) and Miles (16 points, 11 rebounds) Plumlee led the Blue Devils but the slow start landed them in a hole too deep to crawl out of. North Carolina did a better job of defending the three, and part of the battle was to make sure the Blue Devils didn't get the chance to attempt 36 as they did in Chapel Hill. Duke finished 6-for-21 from beyond the arc, and when combined with their 47.6% shooting inside of the arc that wasn't enough to withstand UNC shooting 60.3% from two and 54.5% overall. With both teams still in the fight for a one-seed in the NCAA tournament splitting the regular season series was key for North Carolina. One would think that an ACC tournament crown would be the "tiebreaker".

2. BYU gets outclassed by Gonzaga and now has to sweat out a week of action.
For the sake of the Cougars it may be a good thing if the selection committee got in some rest before they begin their week-long process of filling the 68-team field, because they did not look good in their WCC semifinal matchup with Gonzaga. The Bulldogs showed no ill effects of playing their first game of the tournament, coming out firing and jumping to a 12-4 lead by the first media timeout and leading by as many as 18 in the first half. BYU was able to close the margin to 12 at the half (38-26), but they were no match for Kevin Pangos and the Bulldogs in the second half as Gonzaga rolled to the 77-58 win. Pangos scored 30 points and dished out four assists, advancing the Bulldogs to the title game where they will play nemesis Saint Mary's, and the Zags limited BYU to 37.7% shooting on the night.

The question for BYU is how much damage does this defeat do to their NCAA tournament hopes. According to realtimerpi.com the Cougars entered Saturday with an RPI of 47, but their strength of schedule number (108) has to be a bit of a concern at this point. BYU does have three RPI Top 50 wins at this point, as they've beaten Oregon and Weber State in addition to Gonzaga, but two of those wins came at home and the Oregon win came in Salt Lake City. Saturday night notwithstanding BYU has the look of a tournament team, with Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock inside leading the way. But does the resume match up? That's a question that many will ponder over the next week.

3. Illinois State upsets Wichita State in the Missouri Valley semis, setting up a date with Creighton.
It was the situation that many bubble teams fear annually: a team not expected to go to the NCAA tournament makes a run in their conference tournament to possibly take an available bid off the board. Illinois State is 40 minutes away from doing just that as they beat top-seed Wichita State 65-64 in St. Louis. Tyler Brown led the way with 25 points and six rebounds, and his two free throws with 6.4 seconds remaining gave the Redbirds a 65-64 lead they would not relinquish. Garrett Stutz had a good look at the basket just before time expired but his shot fell short, eliminating the possibility of a third meeting between the Shockers and Creighton. But neither that nor the fate of bubble teams is (or should be) of concern to Illinois State, and Tim Jankovich also has Jackie Carmichael to call on inside. If the Redbirds get better on the boards (Wichita State grabbed 17 offensive rebounds) they'll have every chance of beating the Bluejays and winning the MVC tournament title.

4. Chalk rules in the CAA semis, setting up a massive battle between George Mason and VCU.
Many have joined the "two bids for the CAA" campaig, citing the gaudy records of Drexel, VCU and George Mason as one reason why. All three needed to reach the semis to make that goal a possibility, and along with four-seed Old Dominion they all took care of business on Saturday. George Mason needed a Bryon Allen reverse in the final seconds to beat Georgia State 54-52 while Drexel and VCU would both pull away in their wins over UNCW and Northeastern. That sets up a critical battle between VCU and George Mason on Sunday afternoon, with the winner likely having the best case for an at-large bid, and Drexel takes on ODU in what should be a slugfest. Getting two bids may be tough given strength of schedule numbers but with numerous bubble teams stumbling down the stretch the door remains open, and that's the least the CAA can ask for at this point.

5. Seton Hall wraps up an 0-2 finish against teams they were expected to beat, casting doubt on their NCAA tournament hopes.
One of those stumbling bubble teams is Seton Hall, and all the Pirates had to do was beat Rutgers and DePaul in their last two games heading into the Big East Championship. Last Saturday they fell to Rutgers at home in overtime, and things got even worse a week later as the Pirates were blown out by the Blue Demons 86-58. Kevin Willard's team just never seemed ready to go, trailing by 13 at the half and things would only get worse from there. Jamee Crockett led four DePaul players in double figures with 21 points and as a team the Blue Demons put on a clinic offensively, assisting on 23 of their 29 made baskets and shooting 53.7% from the field. Now Seton Hall has to get things going in New York, beginning with a first round matchup with a Providence team capable of beating just about anyone (they beat Louisville by 33 earlier this season) despite their lack of depth. Seton Hall has the opportunity to leave a better impression, but after Saturday's debacle there may be doubt as to whether or not the Pirates can take advantage.

Quick Hitters

1. Two teams to watch in next week's Pac-12 tournament are Oregon and UCLA as both enter the event playing well. The Ducks embarrassed Utah 92-46 in their regular season finale, jumping out to a 32-2 lead and never looking back. As for UCLA, they came back to beat Washington 75-69 to cap a 2-0 week that was kickstarted by a negative story in Sports Illustrated. Given the wide-open nature of the league it wouldn't be a shock if either of these teams put together a run. Oh, that loss didn't help the Huskies one bit from a bubble standpoint.

2. Butler won't have the opportunity to make another trip to the NCAA tournament this season, as they fell 65-46 at top-seed Valparaiso in the Horizon League semifinals. Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff led the Crusaders with 19 points and 16 rebounds as VU jumped out early and never looked back. This ends an impressive run for Brad Stevens' program, but the combination of a strong recruiting class and Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clark will give the Bulldogs a nice boost next season.

3. Higher-seeded teams advanced in three of the four quarterfinals in the Metro Atlantic with the lone exception being six-seed Siena, who beat three-seed Manhattan 84-82 in an overtime thriller. Owen Wignot's three with eight seconds remaining sent the game into overtime, and the Saints navigated a five minutes that would have wilted most teams that lack depth as they do. Mitch Buonaguro's team takes on Loyola (MD) in one semi while Fairfield and Iona meet on the other side of the bracket.

4. Memphis went on the road and beat Tulsa 78-66 to clinch the outright Conference USA title, and don't be surprised if Josh Pastner's team ends up in the Sweet 16 either. Will Barton scored 30 points and grabbed nine rebounds to lead the way but a key factor in their recent success has been the play of Chris Crawford. His steadying influence (seven assists, zero turnovers on Saturday) has allowed Joe Jackson to simply go out and make plays, and while the turnovers for Jackson are still an issue (six against Tulsa) the emergence of Crawford has helped buffer the impact.

5. In a matchup of two teams perceived to be on the bubble, West Virginia beat USF 50-44 in Tampa to pick up a much-needed road victory. Neither team shot well (WVU shot 28.8%, USF 39.5%) but the Mountaineers were able to grab 12 offensive boards and Kevin Jones posted another double-double with 18 points and 11 boards. USF's the six-seed in the Big East Championship next week, and they're going to have some work to do at MSG.

6. Speaking of the Big East, Jim Calhoun made his return to the sidelines and provided a spark to his team as UConn beat Pittsburgh 74-65. Roscoe Smith made some huge plays late to help the Huskies hold off the Panthers and Shabazz Napier finished with 23 points, six rebounds and four steals. UConn begins their Big East Championship with a game against DePaul, but unlike last year's team there's no Kemba walking through that door. But at least they have their coach back.

7. Iowa State scored 50 second half points, erasing a seven-point halftime deficit to beat Baylor 80-72 and grab the three-seed in next week's Big 12 tournament. Scott Christopherson led the Cyclones with 23 points and six assists, and while Bill Self will most likely win Big 12 Coach of the Year (and rightfully so) an argument can be made for Fred Hoiberg as well.

8. The top two seeds in the Patriot League will meet on Wednesday night as both Bucknell and Lehigh won their semifinal matchups by wide margins. C.J. McCollum put up 27, ten and six assists in Lehigh's 85-66 win over American, and Bucknell beat Lafayette 79-52 thanks in part to 18 points apiece from Mike Muscala and Joe Willman. The two teams split their two regular season meetings with the road team winning both, and it was a McCollum dagger in the final seconds that made the difference in Lewisburg.

9. The North Division of the Southern Conference didn't have the best-looking records at the end of the regular season but three teams from that division make up the final four in that tournament. The lone exception is overall champion Davidson, who beat Furman 73-54. UNCG and Western Carolina meet in one semi while the Wildcats will take on Elon, who beat Georgia Southern in the nightcap 65-58.

10. Jamaal Franklin was outstanding for San Diego State on Saturday, accounting for 35 points, 13 rebounds and five assists as the Aztecs handed TCU their first home conference loss this season in overtime (98-92). The win, combined with New Mexico's 78-61 win over Boise State, means a shared conference title and it's anyone guess who will grab the automatic bid. One would think that the Mountain West is in line to receive four bids come Selection Sunday.

11. Harvard wrapped up a share of the Ivy League title as they beat Cornell 67-63. Penn remained tied in the loss column with their 68-47 win over Yale, and all that stands between the Quakers and a one-game playoff is bitter rival Princeton. That won't be a walk in the park for Zack Rosen and company to say the least.

12. One of the biggest questions going into the SEC tournament is whether or not Tennessee can make a run at an at-large bid. To think that this would have been a topic for discussion back in December would have been borderline absurd, but Cuonzo Martin's team is a different one since the addition of Jarnell Stokes. The Vols beat Vanderbilt 68-61, led by Cameron Tautm's 18 points and Trae Golden's 17, five rebounds and four assists.

13. Northwestern avoided what would have been a damaging blow to their NCAA tournament hopes as they beat Iowa 70-66 in Iowa City. The Wildcats did what they needed to do (at minimum) in their final three games, which was beat Penn State and Iowa (their loss was to Ohio State at home), and that keeps them alive heading into the Big Ten tournament.

14. There's just one undefeated (in conference play) team remaining in college basketball as Long Beach State, Ut-Arlington and Utah Valley all dropped their first conference games on Saturday. This comes just days after Mississippi Valley State lost their SWAC finale, leaving Kentucky as the lone undefeated. The Wildcats take on Florida Sunday afternoon in Gainesville.

15. Dominique Morrison shot just 2-for-11 from the field but thanks to Michael Craion and company Oral Roberts was able to withstand an IPFW challenge, winning 71-67 in a Summit League quarterfinal. Craion scored 16 points and grabbed six rebounds, and Warren Niles scored a team-high 17 as the Golden Eagles escaped.

Bracketology: Saturday Afternoon Bubble Update

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 13:51:35 -0800

At this point in the season, a few hours can make or destroy a team's season. Besides conference titles on the line, at-large bids, NIT invites, and seeding remain up in the air. Since yesterday's Bracketology projection, here are the results that matter and how the impact postseason hopes:

Saturday Afternoon

Cincinnati 72 - Villanova 68
Having beaten Marquette last time out, Cincinnati seemed safely in the tournament for the first time in weeks. However, a loss to Villanova followed by a loss in the Big East Tournament could have pushed them right back to the edge. Instead, Cincy picked up a road win and a probable NCAA bid.

Cincinnati's projected seed: 10-11

Marquette 83 - Georgetown 69
Both of these teams were 3 seeds in my latest projection. Georgetown could certainly drop into the 4 seed range depending on how the likes of Wisconsin and Indiana fare over the weekend.

Marquette's projected seed: 2-3
Georgetown's projected seed: 3-4

Memphis 78 - Tulsa 66
With a win, the Tigers locked up the CUSA regular season title. With the tournament being held in Memphis, they have a great shot to win the postseason tournament as well. With a Top 25 RPI and a string of wins, Memphis is approaching a 6 seed.

Memphis' projected seed: 6-7

Murray St 54 - Tennessee St
It wasn't easy, but Murray St escaped with a 2-point win in the OVC Finals to lock up a bid. As a neutral bracketologist, a win by Tennessee St would have been much more interesting. Murray has a wider range of seeds compared to most teams considering their unique situation.

Murray St's projected seed: 4-6

Northwestern 70 - Iowa 66

Nothing comes easy for Northwestern. Wildcats trailed by a bunch, then led by a bunch, then escaped with a nail-biting win. As it is, Northwestern is still in the field, but a lot can change over the next week. A first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament could be enough to knock them right back out. (Iowa could have finished an impressive 9-9 with a win, but their best case postseason scenario is hosting an NIT first round game.)

Northwestern's projected seed: 11-13

Marshall 79 - Southern Miss 75
Southern Miss showed a lot of toughness fighting back from multiple deficits, but the Eagles could never pull away. A win would have no doubt locked up a bid for Southern Miss, but instead they drop closer to the bubble. I think they're still in, but there are a lot of analysts who question how good this team really is. (Marshall is fighting for an NIT bid, and this win certainly helped.)

Southern Miss projected seed: 11-12

UCONN 74 - Pittsburgh 65
The Huskies looked dominant in the first half, almost blew the lead, and then ended up pulling out a 9 point win. A loss would have 100% eliminated UCONN from NCAA Tournament contention. As it is, they exemplify what it means to be a bubble team. South Florida's loss to West Virginia definitely helped UCONN's cause.

UCONN's projected seed: 13 or NIT.

UNC-Asheville 80 - VMI 64
After a tight first half, VMI ran out of gas and UNC-Asheville cruised to the Big South title. Despite a solid 24-9 season and dominant Big South record, UNCA will most likely be looking at a 16 seed.

UNCA's projected seed: 16 (potentially in First Four game.)

UCLA 75 - Washington 69
While I question why the Pac-12 deserves more than one bid, you can rest assured the league will at least get 2 bids. This loss not only prevented the Huskies from locking up the regular season title, it also pushes them down out of a single-digit seed.

Washington's projected seed: 10-11

West Virginia 50 - South Florida 44
In an offensively inept game between bubble squads, West Virginia pulled out a huge road win. The Mountaineers once looked like a tourney lock, but needed two wins to close the season to remain in the field. As it is, they're in for now but can't be considered a 100% lock. After South Florida finally worked their way into my projected field of 68, they're back on the outside now. They certainly still have a chance to work their way back in, but if USF loses their first game at the Big East Tournament, they'd officially be toast.

West Virginia's projected seed: 11-12
South Florida's projected seed: NIT

Illinois St 65 - Wichita St 64

The Shockers have certainly locked up a bid, but this loss may have knocked them back from the lofty 4 seed I had them pegged at. More importantly, it opens the possibility that Illinois St could win the MVC title tomorrow over Creighton/Evansville and steal a bubble bid. Should be fun to watch tomorrow.

Wichita St's projected seed: 4-5

Xavier 72 - Charlotte 63
With 8 minutes to go, Charlotte led by 4 and Xavier's NCAA hopes were on the verge of collapsing. Tu Holloway scored 10 points in the final 8 minutes to spearhead a Xavier run that might have saved their season.

Xavier's projected seed: 12-13

Friday Night

BYU 73 - San Diego 68
The Cougars were pushed from the opening tip by San Diego, but escaped with a much-needed win. BYU's spot in the tournament is far from certain. Only if they go on to beat Gonzaga tonight would I say they're safe.

BYU's projected seed: 10-11

Creighton 68 - Drake 61
Doug McDermott's 26 points helped Creighton escape with a win over a pesky Drake squad. While Creighton is a tourney lock, a loss last night could have potentially dropped them as far as an 8 or 9 seed.

Creighton's projected seed: 6-7

Harvard 77 - Columbia 70 (OT)
While most have assumed for months that Harvard would win the Ivy League, they're only a half-game up on Penn. Not only would a lost last night have put Harvard's Ivy hopes in danger, it would have been crippling for their at-large hopes as well. There's no way the committee puts a 3-loss Ivy team into the tournament.

Harvard's projected seed: 11

#3 Duke vs. #6 North Carolina: Saturday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 07:07:54 -0800

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

For 37 minutes #6 North Carolina (26-4, 13-2) had the look of a team poised to beat their bitter rival and take control (at the time) of the ACC race. But the Tar Heels made mistakes that #3 Duke (26-4, 13-2) was ready to take advantage of, culminating with a Austin Rivers three as time expired to give the Blue Devils the 85-84 win. Saturday's winner will be the outright ACC regular season champion, and it's also important when considering the race for the two one-seeds that Kentucky and Syracuse haven't "spoken for" in regards to the NCAA tournament.

The area that North Carolina will have to defend on Saturday night is easy to figure out: the three-point line. Duke attempted 36 three-pointers in the first meeting, making 14 which was good for a percentage of 38.9%. Duke scored 49.4% of their points from three, and on the season they score 31.9% of their points via that shot. Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Austin Rivers can all knock down the shot and the same goes for forward Ryan Kelly. North Carolina has to turn Duke players into dribblers as opposed to shooters, but that's easier said than done.

Those three-pointers were an issue for North Carolina not only because of the number made but also because of the Tar Heels' struggles with the shot. UNC made just one of six, and perimeter shooting has been more of an issue than many expected in the preseason. Harrison Barnes has made just eight of twenty-seven shots from beyond the arc since the Duke game, and the Heels need both he and Reggie Bullock to shoot well in order to open things up even more for John Henson and Tyler Zeller inside.

Henson and Zeller combined to grab 28 of North Carolina's 42 rebounds in the early February meeting, and they could enjoy a similar advantage inside in the rematch. But the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, have been playing solid basketball of late and Mason grabbed 14 boards in Chapel Hill. If they can stay out of foul trouble and make things difficult for Henson and Zeller inside the Blue Devils will have a good chance of winning. While defending the three will be key for North Carolina rebounding will be important for the Blue Devils, and whichever team gets the job done will ultimately win the ACC title.

Two other games match ranked teams, with both being Big East contests. While #2 Syracuse and #18 Louisville are locked into their respective seeds (SU - 1, U of L - 7) this is a big contest for the Cardinals when it comes to their NCAA tournament seeding. A win over the Orange would be a nice line to add to their resume, and the hope is that more minutes for Wayne Blackshear will get them over the hump. The winner of #12 Georgetown and #7 Marquette will wrap up the final double-bye, and despite teams lack of success with the perk that would be a valuable day of rest for two teams (especially Marquette) than don't have a great amount of depth.

Memphis, who has played very well of late, can wrap up the Conference USA regular season title with a win at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have surprised some by hanging in the C-USA race but Doug Wojcik's team has taken advantage of a schedule that brought other title contenders to Tulsa without a return trip. Can they do the same against the Tigers and lock up the three-seed in next week's conference tournament? They'll need to slow down Will Barton if they're to do so. In the Mountain West both #23 San Diego State and Colorado State had better be careful on the road, especially the Aztecs who visit a TCU team that's undefeated in conference home games. The Rams, who beat UNLV on Wednesday night, visit an Air Force teams that's played better since the firing of Jeff Reynolds.

Washington and Northwestern both have road games they can't afford to lose at this point in the season, with the Huskies looking to win the Pac-12 title outright with a victory over UCLA. The Bruins played their best game of the season on Thursday night as they blew out Washington State, and if they can force Tony Wroten and Terrence Ross to play a half-court game UCLA's got a shot. As for Northwestern, they need to win at Iowa to keep their Big Ten tournament trip "manageable" in regards to how much work they may need to do in order to lock up an at-large bid. John Shurna and Drew Crawford can both score but they're going to need help against the Hawkeyes, who are led offensively by the talented Matt Gatens.

Temple can win the Atlantic 10 outright with a win at Fordham and Long Beach State can cap an undefeated run through the Big West win a win at Cal State Fullerton, while Texas has a golden opportunity at their fingertips as they visit #4 Kansas. The Longhorns could use a signature victory for their resume and to do so at Allen Fieldhouse would make quite the impression. But that's far easier said than done, especially on Senior Day in Lawrence. The same goes for hard-charging Tennessee, who hosts Vanderbilt and would make for an interesting case in the selection room given their play since the addition of Jarnell Stokes. Lastly both West Virginia and USF need a win to solidify their tournament hopes, but the truth is that both will need to do work in New York next week as well.

Top 25 Games
4:00 PM (18) Louisville at (2) Syracuse (CBS)
7:00 PM (6) North Carolina at (3) Duke (ESPN)
9:00 PM Texas at (4) Kansas (ESPN3)
2:00 PM (12) Georgetown at (7) Marquette (ESPN3)
4:00 PM (8) Missouri at Texas Tech (ESPN3)
2:00 PM Tennessee State vs (9) Murray State* (ESPN)
7:00 PM (10) Baylor at Iowa State (ESPN3)
2:35 PM Illinois State vs (14) Wichita State* (ESPN3)
10:00 PM Wyoming at (17) UNLV (The Mtn.)
9:00 PM San Francisco vs (21) Saint Mary's* (ESPNU)
7:00 PM (23) San Diego State at TCU (The Mtn.)
5:05 PM Evansville vs (24) Creighton* (ESPN3)
4:00 PM (25) Temple at Fordham

NCAA Division I Games
12:00 PM Pittsburgh at Connecticut (ESPN)
12:00 PM West Virginia at South Florida (ESPN3)
12:00 PM Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (ESPN3)
12:00 PM Ohio at Miami (OH)
12:00 PM Memphis at Tulsa (CBS)
12:00 PM George Washington at Dayton
12:00 PM UNC Wilmington vs Drexel* (ESPN3)
12:00 PM Saint Louis at Duquesne
12:00 PM VMI at UNC-Asheville (ESPN3)
12:00 PM Appalachian State vs UNC Greensboro* (ESPN3)
12:05 PM Binghamton vs Stony Brook*
12:30 PM Nebraska at Minnesota (BTN)
1:30 PM Oklahoma State at Kansas State (ESPN3)
1:45 PM South Carolina at Georgia (ESPN3)
2:00 PM LSU at Auburn (CBS)
2:00 PM Washington at UCLA (CBS)
2:00 PM Cincinnati at Villanova (ESPN3)
2:00 PM Southern Miss at Marshall
2:00 PM Northern Illinois at Ball State
2:00 PM St. Bonaventure at La Salle
2:00 PM American University at Lehigh
2:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Toledo
2:00 PM Western Carolina vs Wofford* (ESPN3)
2:00 PM Charlotte at Xavier
2:15 PM New Hampshire vs Albany*
2:30 PM Delaware vs Old Dominion* (ESPN3)
2:30 PM Rider vs Fairfield* (ESPN3)
2:30 PM Northwestern at Iowa (BTN)
2:30 PM Boston College at Miami (FL) (ESPN3)
3:00 PM Utah Valley at North Dakota
3:00 PM UTEP at SMU
4:00 PM Rhode Island at Massachusetts
4:00 PM Alabama at Ole Miss (ESPN3)
4:00 PM Boise State at New Mexico (NBC SN)
4:00 PM Texas A&M at Oklahoma (ESPN3)
4:00 PM Colorado at Oregon State
4:00 PM Colorado State at Air Force (The Mtn.)
4:00 PM Vanderbilt at Tennessee (ESPN3)
4:00 PM Chicago State at NJIT
4:30 PM Marist vs Iona* (ESPN3)
4:30 PM Lafayette at Bucknell
4:30 PM McNeese State at Lamar
4:30 PM Southeastern Louisiana at Nicholls State
5:00 PM Sam Houston State at Texas State
5:00 PM Idaho State at Eastern Washington
5:00 PM Arkansas at Mississippi State (ESPN3)
5:00 PM Prairie View A&M at Alcorn State
5:00 PM Texas Southern at Southern
6:00 PM Washington State at USC
6:00 PM Seton Hall at DePaul (ESPN3)
6:00 PM Detroit vs Cleveland State* (ESPN3)
6:00 PM Grambling State at Alabama A&M
6:00 PM Jackson State at Alabama State
6:00 PM Bowling Green at Buffalo (ESPN3)
6:00 PM Furman vs Davidson* (ESPN3)
6:00 PM Utah at Oregon
6:00 PM Northeastern vs VCU* (ESPN3)
6:05 PM Maine vs Vermont*
7:00 PM Troy vs South Alabama*
7:00 PM Dartmouth at Columbia
7:00 PM Harvard at Cornell (ESPN3)
7:00 PM IPFW vs Oral Roberts*
7:00 PM Yale at Pennsylvania
7:00 PM Florida Gulf Coast vs Belmont* (ESPN3)
7:00 PM UAB at UCF
7:00 PM Northwestern State at Stephen F. Austin
7:05 PM Long Beach State at Cal State Fullerton
7:15 PM Arkansas State vs Florida Atlantic*
7:15 PM Texas-Arlington at UTSA
7:30 PM Brown at Princeton
7:30 PM Niagara vs Loyola (MD)* (ESPN3)
8:00 PM UC Irvine at UC Riverside
8:00 PM St. John's at Rutgers (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Houston at Rice
8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Texas A&M-CC
8:00 PM East Carolina at Tulane
8:05 PM Texas-Pan American at Houston Baptist
8:15 PM Hartford at Boston University
8:30 PM Georgia Southern vs Elon* (ESPN3)
8:30 PM Georgia State vs George Mason* (ESPN3)
8:30 PM Butler at Valparaiso
9:30 PM Florida International vs Western Kentucky*
9:30 PM Siena vs Manhattan* (ESPN3)
9:30 PM IUPUI vs South Dakota State*
10:00 PM Pacific at Cal Poly
10:00 PM Idaho at San Jose State
10:00 PM New Mexico State at Fresno State
10:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Nevada
10:00 PM Montana State at Portland State
10:00 PM UC Davis at UC Santa Barbara
11:00 PM Brigham Young vs Gonzaga* (ESPN2)
12:00 AM Utah State at Hawaii