Western Carolina

Predictions: CAA, MAAC, Southern, WCC Finals

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:22:41 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's four key championship games. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

CAA CHAMPIONSHIP: AT RICHMOND, VA.

(1) Drexel (27-5, 16-2) vs. (2) Virginia Commonwealth (27-6, 15-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Drexel 64-58. RPI: Drexel 65, VCU 66. Analysis: With 35 wins in their last 36 games combined, the Dragons and Rams should both be in the NCAA Tournament. However, neither will want to leave that up to the Selection Committee. Line: VCU -2. Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 57, Drexel 53.

MAAC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT SPRINGFIELD, MASS.

(2) Loyola (Md.) (23-8, 13-5) vs. (4) Fairfield (19-13, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 13 – Loyola 66-63*; Feb. 12 – Fairfield 68-51. RPI: Loyola 84, Fairfield 111. Analysis: The Stags are finally playing like they were expected to all season, but Loyola has been the more consistent team through the season. Line: Fairfield -2. Pick: Loyola 68, Fairfield 64.

SOUTHERN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(1S) Davidson (24-7, 16-2) vs. (3N) Western Carolina (17-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Davidson 88-67. RPI: Davidson 68, Western Carolina 216. Analysis: Aside from Davidson, the SoCon was really bad this year. This won’t be close. Line: Davidson -12½. Pick: Davidson 85, Western Carolina 64.

WCC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) Saint Mary’s (26-5, 14-2) vs. (2) Gonzaga (25-5, 13-3)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Saint Mary’s 83-62; Feb. 9 – Gonzaga 73-59. RPI: Saint Mary’s 33, Gonzaga 23. Analysis: Saint Mary’s just isn’t the same team with Stephen Holt – and the Bulldogs are playing really well. Line: Gonzaga -1½. Pick: Gonzaga 80, Saint Mary’s 72.

SUMMIT LEAGUE SEMIFINALS: AT SIOUX FALLS, S.D.

(1) Oral Roberts (27-5, 17-1) vs. (5) Western Illinois (17-13, 9-9)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Oral Roberts 71-70 (2OT)*; Feb. 11 – Oral Roberts 61-51. RPI: Oral Roberts 41, Western Illinois 188. Analysis: Oral Roberts should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but the Eagles will play like their lives are on the line. Line: Oral Roberts -8. Pick: Oral Roberts 67, Western Illinois 56.

(2) South Dakota State (25-7, 15-3) vs. (6) Southern Utah (14-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – South Dakota State 75-68*; Feb. 4 – South Dakota State 66-56. RPI: South Dakota State 58, Southern Utah 244. Analysis: Nice comeback win for the Thunderbirds against Oakland on Sunday, but that’s as far as it goes. Line: South Dakota State -12. Pick: South Dakota State 70, Southern Utah 54.

SUN BELT SEMIFINALS: AT HOT SPRINGS, ARK.

(9) Arkansas State (13-19, 6-10) vs. (5) North Texas (16-13, 9-7)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Arkansas State 75-72; Jan. 28 – North Texas 76-64. RPI: North Texas 200, Arkansas State 243. Analysis: Arkansas State used the second-day advantage to knock off the top seed, but playing a third straight day is exponentially tougher. Line: North Texas -1. Pick: North Texas 71, Arkansas State 63.

(3) Denver (21-8, 11-5) vs. (7) Western Kentucky (12-18, 7-9)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Denver 78-65. RPI: Denver 84, Western Kentucky 214. Analysis: Denver’s last six wins have been by double-figures. This game will be no different. Line: Denver -8½. Pick: Denver 69, Western Kentucky 57.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 128-94-3

Tuesday Recap: Michigan Moves Streak to Three

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:31:32 -0800

Given how reliant Michigan is on the three-point shot, many would think it highly unlikely that John Beilein's team would win a game in which they shot 6-for-21 from beyond the arc. But thanks to a late basket from Stu Douglass and some solid defense on the final possession of the game, that's exactly what happened as the Wolverines beat in-state rival Michigan 60-59 at Crisler Arena. Trey Burke scored a game-high 20 points and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak scored ten points apiece, but Novak's biggest contribution came on the defensive end of the floor.

Despite giving up three inches in height the senior did an outstanding job of guarding Draymond Green, with Green making three of eight shots for seven points. Green, who did grab 11 rebounds, also turned the ball over five times against a Michigan defense that held him scoreless over the final fifteen minutes of the game. Michigan State fought their way back into the game by shooting 52.4% from the field in the second half, and it didn't hurt to have a reserve in Derrick Nix score a season-high 13 points off the bench.

Brandan Kearney's three with 6:45 remaining gave the Spartans their first lead of the game at 50-49, and at that point it would have been easy for the Wolverines to fold. But they didn't, remaining within striking distance thanks in part to a switch to their 1-3-1 zone before taking the lead on Douglass' bucket that Burke assisted on with 36.5 seconds remaining. And while Michigan State did get two attempts to take the lead in the final seconds neither came without pressure from Michigan (one of which was blocked), resulting in opportunities that weren't as good as the Spartans would have hoped for.

"We really tried to completely deny Draymond the ball," said Beilein of the final sequence of the game. "You almost have to double him sometimes. We had to today, and then he passed the ball out of there. Fortunately they didn't have any success with either one."

Michigan's win means that they remain a player in the Big Ten race, which is currently led by Illinois by a game in the loss column. The Wolverines have won the last three games in the series, but while the recent run of success gives Michigan bragging rights it's just a portion of the big picture. Both teams remain contenders for the Big Ten title, meaning that the meeting in East Lansing on February 5th will be just as important in determining whether or not either team can win the league. Round one goes to Michigan.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Florida State builds on Saturday's win by whipping Maryland in Tallahassee.
On the heels of their emphatic win over North Carolina it would have been easy for Florida State to go into their game against Maryland dwelling on what happened Saturday. But Leonard Hamilton's team displayed both maturity and some offensive firepower on Tuesday night, beating the Terrapins 84-70 in their second straight excellent performance. One factor in the Seminoles' win was that they took care of the basketball, finishing the game with just nine turnovers (four in the second half). Michael Snaer led the way with 19 points while Ian Miller and Okaro White combined to score 31 points off the bench in a balanced effort for the Seminoles.

Maryland's Terrell Stoglin led all scorers with 27 points but the only other Maryland player to reach double figures was Nick Faust, and he finished with ten points. Florida State was balanced in their scoring and efficient in their execution, which led to them leading by as many as 21 points in the second half. FSU visits Duke this weekend, and it will be interesting to see if they can continue to play as they have the last two games. If so, the Seminoles have the ability to leave Durham with a win.

2. UNC Asheville extends its lead in the Big South to two games with a win over Coastal Carolina.
All six players who scored for Coastal Carolina reached double figures, with Sam McLaurin scoring 17 points to lead the way, but it wasn't enough to win at UNC Asheville due in large part to the Bulldogs' ability to get to the foul line and take advantage of those trips. Eddie Biedenbach's team attempted 33 free throws and made 31, winning 88-81 to take a two-game lead in the Big South as a result. J.P. Primm scored 23 points to lead the Bulldogs and Matt Dickey added 19 with 12 of his points coming from the foul line.

While it's well-known that this tandem is a handful, when they score a combined 20 points from the foul line Primm and Dickey are near impossible to beat. With the victory the Bulldogs took an important step towards the regular season crown, and with the champion getting to host the semifinals and title game of the Big South Tournament that's an important advantage to have. The goal for CCU now is to at the least remain two games back before the two teams meet again on Valentine's Day, and if they can get some help as well the Big South title would still be a realistic possibility.

3. Anthony Davis breaks Kentucky's single-season blocks record in the Wildcats' win over Arkansas.
In freshman Anthony Davis it's become quite apparent that Kentucky head coach John Calipari has a player that is extremely difficult for opponents to deal with. And now there's also the historical aspect of Davis' freshman campaign, as he is now the school record-holder for the most blocked shots in a season with 89 (blocking seven on Tuesday) and still counting. The blocked shots weren't Davis' sole contribution however as he scored 27 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in the Wildcats' 86-63 win.

Five players reached double figures for Kentucky, who shot 57.1% from the field and out-rebounded Arkansas 38-26. Doron Lamb scored 14 points off the bench, Terrence Jones (13 points, nine rebounds and five blocks) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (ten points, four rebounds and four assists) were both all over the stat sheet and Marquis Teague played arguably his best game in a Kentucky uniform with nine assists and four rebounds with just three turnovers. With all of their young talent Kentucky's got unlimited potential, and the fact that the Wildcats have yet to play their best basketball should concern the rest of the SEC.

Quick Hitters

1. One of the keys for getting into the NCAA Tournament is to avoid bad losses, and that's exactly what Colorado State did in their 66-55 win over Boise State. Dorian Green scored a game-high 20 points and Pierce Hornung grabbed ten rebounds off the bench as Tim Miles' team moved to 2-0 in Mountain West play.

2. Louisville, which has been hit hard by injuries this season, found out on Tuesday that forward Rakeem Buckles was done for the year with a torn ACL. Buckles, who averaged 4.0 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, injured himself in the Cardinals' loss at Marquette on Monday.

3. So Western Carolina took on Toccoa Falls on Tuesday night as they wanted to avoid having too much time off between games. The final score: 141-39. Nine Catamounts scored in double figures and two others scored nine points, and WCU also held a 62-19 edge on the boards. Things got out of hand in Cullowhee.

4. Campbell picked up a 54-51 win at Winthrop, and as a result the Camels are tied with Coastal Carolina two games behind UNC Asheville in the Big South. Eric Griffin scored 12 of his 14 points in the second half while also grabbing 11 rebounds, and the Camels outscored Winthrop 13-4 over the final 6:40 of the game.

5. Robbie Hummel scored 17 points and grabbed 11 rebounds and Lewis Jackson added 14 as Purdue rebounded from a slow start to beat Iowa 75-68 in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers shot just 41.1% from the field but they out-rebounded the Hawkeyes by nine (41-32) and coverted 13 Iowa turnovers into 20 points.

6. Georgetown proved to be too much for DePaul, winning 83-75 at Allstate Arena, but the improvement that the Blue Demons have made under Oliver Purnell is definitely noticeable. Outside of Jeremiah Kelly and Krys Faber the rotation is young, meaning that as upperclassmen talented players such as Brandon Young and Cleveland Melvin will be well-equipped to improve the standing of the program within the Big East.

Three Notable Performances

1. F/C Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
27 points, 14 rebounds and seven blocks in the Wildcats' 86-63 win over Arkansas.

2. G Jason Clark (Georgetown)
Career-high 31 points (11-14 FG), five rebounds and four steals in the Hoyas' 83-75 win at DePaul.

3. G Nick Barbour (High Point)
33 points (11-16 FG) and three assists, but he didn't receive much help in the Panthers' 85-66 loss at Radford.

College Hoops Monday Recap: Quick Start Fool's Gold for the Hoyas

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 22:12:37 -0800

Monday's rivalry game between Georgetown and Syracuse didn't get off to the best of starts for the home team, who fell behind 14-0 before the game was even three minutes old thanks primarily to the shooting of Austin Freeman (3-3 from deep during that sequence) with a Jason Clark trey being the final salvo in that outburst. The outside shots were coming easily for the Hoyas, something that actually make the Syracuse zone more effective especially if you don't commit to getting the ball inside. Georgetown accepted the invitation to do the majority of their work on the perimeter, and this combined with the Syracuse bench tandem of Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph, led to the Orange storming back to eventually win 73-56.

The most telling stat for an individual player for Georgetown? That would be Greg Monroe (eight points), who fouled out with more turnovers (six) than rebounds (four). Freeman continued his solid play of late with 23 points and Clark added fifteen but there were no other offensive standouts for the Hoyas, who shot just 38.1% from behind the arc and turned the ball over nineteen times. Syracuse had three players reach double figures and the bench duo of Jardine and Joseph combined to score 24 points (and gave the team a serious boost in the first half) on the night. Wes Johnson (14 points, nine rebounds, four blocks) and Andy Rautins (15 points, six rebounds, six assists) stuffed the stat sheet in helping head coach Jim Boeheim pick up his 819th career victory.

Syracuse did a far better job of getting the ball inside, making 53.3% of their shots and assisting on eighteen of their twenty-four made field goals as they outscored the Hoyas by 31 points (73-42) after that initial outburst. Even though the Orange didn't get off to the best of starts their win (and the way they did it) showed exactly why this team is so good. They've got a variety of options on offense and their combined wingspan makes it tough to get the ball inside, and if you play into their hands and go away from working the ball into the middle of the zone you're in trouble. It will be interesting to see if the Hoyas apply the lessons learned on Monday in their rematch on February 18th.

Three Key Happenings

1. Kansas dominates Missouri despite turning the ball over 23 times. The Jayhawks took eleven fewer shots than the Tigers and finished a -19 in turnover margin yet still won by nineteen (84-65) and the game really wasn't as close as the margin would indicate. Kansas did an outstanding job on defense, limiting the Tigers to 27.9% shooting and winning the battle of the boards by a 53-28 margin. Center Cole Aldrich may have taken just five shots (making four) but that doesn't do justice to his impact on the game. The junior big man also grabbed sixteen rebounds and blocked seven shots in the win, also making numerous outlet passes that got his teammates out on the run.

Justin Safford led the Tigers with nineteen points but it shouldn't be a surprise that a team that had to replace its top three scorers from a season ago had so much trouble creating offense against one of the nation's better defenses. Six Jayhawks scored at least six points with three (Aldrich, Marcus Morris and Tyrel Reed) reach double figures as Kansas moved to 19-1 going into their showdown with in-state rival Kansas State on Saturday. Just like Syracuse this is a team that due to its offensive options and commitment to defense is a serious threat to cut down the nets come March.

2. Western Carolina makes a statement in beating Charleston. The Cougars have received the bulk of the attention in the Southern Conference due to their win over North Carolina and the struggles of Davidson. But the leaders in the oft-forgotten North Division struck a blow on Monday night, with the Catamounts of Western Carolina knocking off Charleston 100-90 at the Ramsey Center. The Catamounts shot 59.4% from the field in avenging their loss to the Cougars in last year's SoCon Tournament, maintaining their one-game lead on Appalachian State in the North.

Richie Gordon led five Catamounts in double figures with 19 points, snapping Charleston's seven-game win streak despite 24 points and 11 assists from Andrew Goudelock and 23 points from Tony White Jr. in a losing effort. In fact, each team had five players reach double figures but it was the WCU bench that made the difference, outscoring the Charleston reserves 40-13. Charleston will still be the favorite to win the SoCon's automatic bid but with Western Carolina (and Appalachian State) it will be no cakewalk come tournament time.

3. Texas Southern takes the lead in the SWAC. In a matchup of teams boasting 5-1 conference records the Tigers knocked off Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70-67 in Houston. DeAndre Hall (21 points) and Trevele Jones (18 points) led the way for Texas Southern, who made 47.2% of their shots while the Golden Lions made just 32.3% of their shots. And it's a good thing they held UAPB to such a low percentage since the Golden Eagles grabbed 17 offensive rebounds on their way to a 43-27 advantage on the boards. Terrance Calvin led UAPB with 17 points, seven assists and five steals but it wasn't enough to counteract the cold shooting. But Texas Southern is by no means the "lone wolf" atop the SWAC with five teams within a game of each other atop the standings. This race won't lack for intrigue as the season approaches its final month.

Top Three Games

1. Boise State 77, Idaho 67 (OT) An Anthony Thomas three pointer with one second left in regulation got the Broncos to overtime, where they jumped out to a four-point lead just over a minute in on their way to the victory. Thomas led the Broncos with 17 while Ike Okoye added 16 and 11 rebounds.

2. Western Carolina 100, Charleston 90 See above.

3. Syracuse 73, Georgetown 56 See above.

Three Notable Performances

1. G Menji Mundadi (Alabama State) The Chicago native hit seven of fourteen three pointers in leading the Hornets to a 77-60 win over Southern, their fourst straight victory.

2. F Denzel Bowles (James Madison) Bowles was an important factor in the Dukes' 67-63 win over Radford with 17 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and four blocks.

3. C Cole Aldrich (Kansas) 12 points doesn't do his performance justice, also grabbing 16 rebounds and blocking seven shots in the Jayhawks' 84-65 win over Missouri.

College Hoops Thursday Recap: Syracuse Keeps Rolling

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:13:05 -0800

There was no mistaking what the big game of the night was on Thursday with a pair of unexpected unbeatens facing off in Tampa on the final night of the SEC/Big East Invitational. Both Syracuse and Florida have posted impressive early-season results, showing the pundits who didn't expect much of them in the preseason that they've got the ability to have an impact nationally. And with neither team expected to be this good this early it was fitting that an unexpected source of offense proved to be the difference in Syracuse's 85-73 victory.

Wesley Johnson was unable to get going until the second half thanks to the defense of Dan Werner but that wasn't an issue thanks to junior forward Rick Jackson. The Philadelphia native scored sixteen points and grabbed seven rebounds in the first half, closing the half on the receiving end of an alley-oop from Brandon Triche to send the Orange into the locker room with a 42-36 lead. Jackson finished the game with a game-high 21 points and eleven rebounds while Johnson added seventeen and ten rebounds.

Florida was led by Kenny Boynton (20 points), Chandler Parsons (19 points) and Erving Walker (14 points) but they couldn't match the scoring depth and strength of the Orange, especially in the frontcourt. Syracuse won the battle on the boards 39-28 and still shot 52.8% from the field despite a 3-for-13 night from behind the arc. The one area of concern should be a familiar issue for Syracuse fans: foul shooting. The Orange were a +11 in point differential from the charity stripe but finished just 18-for-31 in that area.

Could that cost them down the road? Possibly, but the number of scoring options that Jim Boeheim has at his disposal along with the improved defense makes Syracuse a credible Final Four possibility at this juncture in the season. Florida had its moments in defeat but as Jackson's night displayed they've got to get stronger up front, especially Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus.

Three Key Happenings

1. Tim Miles' Rams pick up a good win for the program. The "just like football" chant made an appearance in a Mountain West arena for the second consecutive night, this time in honor of Colorado State's 77-62 win over in-state rival Colorado. The Rams had firm control of the game early in the second half but had trouble with the Buffaloes' pressure defense that cut the lead down the five at one point. But thanks to Travis Franklin (22 points, 10 rebounds), Dorian Green (21 points) and Andy Ogide (13 points, eight rebounds) CSU held on for their sixth win of the season.

From a national point of view beating the team picked to finish last in the Big 12 isn't a big deal. But for CSU to pick up their sixth win of the season this early (they won nine all of last season) is a good sign in regards to the direction in which the program is headed. Now the Rams have to guard against a letdown, something that happens to many teams following a win like this, when a dangerous Montana team visits on Saturday. This game will likely say more about the growth of the CSU program.

2. Western Carolina is a threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament. The Catamounts moved to 9-1 on the season with a 66-59 home win over Campbell thanks to then three pointers and sixteen points off the bench from Mike Williams. Guard Brigham Waginger added twelve on four three pointers and the Catamounts held the Camels to 33.9% shooting (1-10 3PT) on the evening. Jonathan Rodriquez, one of the better mid-major frontcourt players in America, led Campbell with eighteen points and ten rebounds.

The SoCon champ tends to come from the Southern Division (where Charleston and Davidson reside) but this could be the year in which Western makes its first tournament appearance since nearly knocking off top-seed Purdue in 1996. They defend well and it's tough to believe that nights in which preseason All-SoCon honorees Harouna Mutombo and Brandon Giles combine to shoot 5-16 from the field will be the norm.

3. Rhode Island holds off Northeastern. Despite the Huskies now having a record of 2-5 things did not come easily to the Rams, who needed a pair of Keith Cothran free throws to seal the 79-76 victory. Cothran led the Rams with nineteen points in their third consecutive win and Jim Baron's squad is a two-point loss at VCU away from being 8-0. Matt Janning led Northeastern with 21 points and the many tests that Bill Coen's team has taken on should benefit them once they take on the CAA portion of their schedule.

Rhode Island, who receives scoring from a number of options, was picked in the preseason to finish eighth in the Atlantic 10 but they've got a good shot at finishing higher provided they defend on a nightly basis. Their fast tempo will allow them to outscore some teams but to crack the upper echelon of the A-10 the Rams can ill-afford to have nights in which the opposition shoots 10-for-17 from behind the arc.

Top Three Games

1. Florida Atlantic 106, Warner Southern 99 (3OT) Mike Jarvis' Owls got lucky in Boca Raton, surviving what would have been an embarrassing loss thanks to five players scoring in double figures. The Royals, who play at the NAIA level, outrebounded FAU 55-39 for the game. That won't get it done against Division I competition.

2. Syracuse 85, Florida 73 See above.

3. Cal Baptist 67, Pepperdine 65 The Waves were alone in losing to an NAIA school on Thursday night, with Davey Hopkins' layup with 8.2 seconds remaining providing the winning points. Mychel Thompson and Keion Bell combined to score 41 points for the Waves but no other player scored more than seven in the loss.

Three Notable Performances

1. F Rick Jackson (Syracuse) Jackson scored 21 points and grabbed ten rebounds in Syracuse's 85-73 win over Florida.

2. F Draymond Green (Michigan State) Green scored nineteen points and tallied twelve rebounds in the Spartans' 88-57 win over Oakland.

3. F Lance Stephenson (Cincinnati) Stephenson's 17 points, 8 rebounds and three assists saved the Bearcats on a night in which Deonta Vaughn failed to score and Yancy Gates scored just eight off the bench. Stephenson's night proved to be the difference in the 63-59 win over Miami (Ohio).

Poll: Who Will Win the Southern Conference?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:07:38 -0700

2009 CollegeHoops.net Mid-Major All-Freshman Team

CHN — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 13:37:20 -0700

The CollegeHoops.net All-Freshman teams were voted on by staff members: Jeff Borzello, Jeff Fox, Raphielle Johnson, Kevin McNeill, Shawn Siegel, and Jon Teitel.

CollegeHoops.net High-Major Freshman of the Year:
Seth Curry - G, Liberty

CollegeHoops.net High-Major All-Freshman
G - Seth Curry - Liberty
G - Gordon Hayward - Butler
G - Harouna Mutombo - Western Carolina
F - Eric Wise - Irvine
F/C - Freddy Asprilla - Florida International

CollegeHoops.net High-Major All-Freshman Second Team
G - Jamar Briscoe - NC Central
G - Shelvin Mack - Butler
G - Damian Lillard - Weber St
F - Jarrod Jones - Ball State
F - Julius Wells - James Madison

CollegeHoops.net High-Major All-Freshman Third Team
G - CJ Reed - Bethune-Cookman
G - Nick Barbour - High Point
G - RJ Evans - Holy Cross
G/F - Novar Gadson - Rider
F - Jake O'Brien - Boston University

Mid-Major players are from all leagues minus the 6 BCS conferences as well as the A-10, CUSA, MWC, MVC, WAC, and WCC.

Check back soon for CHN's End of Season Top 100 Players ranking, our final player awards of the season.

Southern Conference Tournament: Preview

Evan Dorey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:07:39 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Southern Conference

The SoCon Tournament is in Chattanooga, TN, and uses a divisional system, with the top 4 teams getting first round byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
N1	Chattanooga	100.00%	65.87%	29.27%	5.08%
S1	Davidson	100.00%	94.62%	85.70%	74.62%
N2	Western Carolina	100.00%	35.38%	2.77%	0.82%
S2	The Citadel	100.00%	72.60%	47.43%	11.19%
N3	Samford	87.80%	26.70%	12.18%	1.64%
S3	College of Charleston	88.06%	61.74%	9.30%	4.57%
N4	Appalachian St.	77.37%	4.94%	2.07%	0.68%
S4	Wofford	76.38%	30.16%	10.46%	1.34%
N5	Elon	23.62%	3.97%	0.58%	0.03%
S5	Georgia Southern	22.63%	0.44%	0.08%	0.01%
N6	NC Greensboro	11.94%	2.88%	0.09%	0.01%
S6	Furman	12.20%	0.70%	0.08%	0.00%

Between Davidson, Charleston and The Citadel, the South division should dominate the tournament, with the hosts Chattanooga a having a decent shot to make the final, but not looking good against the dominant favorites.

North #1 – Chattanooga Mocs (15-16, 11-9) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.028

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2005 (1^st Round)

The Mocs may be North Division champions, but that’s more about the strength of the South than a ringing endorsement of their play, as Chattanooga has just barely been better than a .500 team. They put up a lot of threes, but make a fairly poor percentage, and are excellent at getting to the free throw line, where they shoot just 65%, adding up to a lot of wasted chances. Chattanooga has struggled to stop the three-point shot, allowing opponents to hit 38% of attempts, and their defensive style means more than 45% of opponents’ shots come from behind the arc, more than any other team in the country. It doesn’t take much statistics knowledge to realize how damaging that is. The saving grace for the Mocs’ defense is that they force turnovers and do well on the defensive glass, but they are still only an average team at best.

Players to watch:

5-11 SR Stephen McDowell, 18.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 58.9 eFG% - McDowell is the conference’s top scorer not named Curry, powered by his 42% three-point shooting on nearly 300 attempts. He doesn’t tend to do much else besides score, but when you’re this good a scorer, that’s more than enough.

6-7 SR Nicchaeus Doaks, 14.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 53.6 eFG% - Doaks leads the conference in rebounds, and is a 57% shooter from inside the arc. He’s excellent at getting to the free throw line, but shoots just 63% there.

South #1 – Davidson Wildcats (25-6, 18-2) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.232

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (Elite Eight)

While the Wildcats’ hopes for an NCAA at-large bid basically disappeared with a two-week period that saw them drop three games, including both their conference losses, they are still heavy favorites to win the conference tournament, and clearly the SoCon’s dominant team. While the Davidson offense gets a lot of focus because of Stephen Curry, the team’s major asset is its defense, the best in the conference by a wide, wide margin. It holds opponents under 40% from the field, and forces a lot of turnovers, in the top 25 in the nation in both areas. If it has a defensive weakness, it’s a tendency to commit a few too many fouls. Offensively, the Wildcats’ shooting percentages aren’t particularly good, but their turnover rate is one of the country’s lowest.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR Stephen Curry, 28.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.6 SPG, 55.1 eFG% - You might have heard of this Curry fellow, as he only happens to be the nation’s leading scorer. He also leads the conference in both assists and steals, and is among the national elite in both of those categories. The amazing thing about Curry is how he manages to stay so efficient when he gets so many possessions; a lot of players have shot as well as he has, percentage-wise, but only Curry can maintain that level over nearly 40% of his team’s shots. He may not get enough credit as a ball distributor, as he has a great assist rate with very few turnovers.

6-8 SR Andrew Lovedale, 12.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 51.4 eFG% - Lovedale is a quality defensive player, and important to Davidson’s strong play at that end of the floor; he leads the team in rebounding and shot-blocks, and is an important influence inside. He’s not a huge scorer, but he doesn’t need to be: he takes his chances pretty well when he gets them.

North #2 – Western Carolina Catamounts (16-14, 11-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.012

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

I promise to stop harping on it, but it’s a little unfair to the South division that the North #2 is has actually been outscored in conference play, yet still earns a first round bye. The Catamounts have allowed the highest opponent FG% in the conference, including 53% on two-point attempts, and commit more than 21 fouls a game, but actually have a league average defense. This is due to good rebounding and the best rate of forcing turnovers in the SoCon. Western Carolina is also an average shooting team, but thanks to its ability on the offensive glass, gets a lot of second-chance opportunities.

Players to watch:

6-4 FR Harouna Mutombo, 14.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 51.3 eFG% - A talented freshman out of Pickering HS, not too far from where I call home, Mutombo has led the Catamounts in rebounding and scoring, and has put up a very good shooting percentage, well over 50% from two-point range.

6-2 JR Brigham Waginger, 8.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.5 SPG, 50.2 eFG% - Waginger isn’t much of a scorer, but shoots the ball pretty well, with most of his attempts coming from three, and has one of the nation’s best steal rates.

South #2 – The Citadel Bulldogs (20-11, 15-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.094

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

While much of the talk about the SoCon has focused solely on Davidson, one of the great stories in college basketball this season managed to gain some well-deserved attention when the Citadel beat Davidson in mid-February. This was the highlight of a run that saw the Bulldogs go 11-1 over the last month or so of the season, and the first time that the team had reached 20 wins in thirty years. If any team has a chance of stopping the Curry show from making a stop at the NCAA tournament, this looks like it. The Citadel has depended on a dynamite defense, the only non-Davidson unit to hold opponents below a point per possession on the year. It managed this with tough perimeter defending, allowing just 39% on opponent three-point attempts, and good defensive rebounding. The Citadel’s offense is only at the league average, but it’s a solid shooting team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, good enough to carry them through a defensively deficient league.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Demetrius Nelson, 16.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 59.3 eFG% - The team’s leader in both points and rebounds, Nelson has been one of the best players in the conference this year, hitting nearly 60% of his shots and getting to the free-throw line quite often, where he makes 76% of attempts.

6-1 SO Cameron Wells, 15.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 49.0 eFG% - Wells is nowhere as efficient a player as Nelson, but he’s a good scorer who leads the team in assists and steals.

North #3 – Samford Bulldogs (14-15, 9-11) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.024

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2000 (1^st Round)

Samford’s overall record is a little misleading, they’ve been an .500 team in efficiency margin, though they don’t have the wins to show for it. The Bulldogs run one of the country’s slowest offenses, and take 50% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. This has helped their inside play somewhat, as they are among the best two-point shooting teams in the country, but they’ve struggled with offensive rebounding and turnovers. Samford is also poor at defensive rebounding, and is vulnerable to opponents inside, but forces a lot of turnovers, rarely fouls and gets teams it plays to shoot a lot of threes.

Players to watch:

6-4 JR Trey Montgomery, 11.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 57.3 eFG% - Montgomery is a do-everything player who leads the team in four separate categories, including rebounds and assists. A lot of this is due to the fact that Samford has tended to spread out its possessions and playing time, as his rates aren’t great, but he plays a lot. He’s a good shooter who scores mostly inside, and has a good complimentary long-distance shot.

6-4 FR Josh Davis, 10.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 61.9 eFG% - Davis is a three-point specialist, and he does an awfully good job of it, hitting 40% of his attempts and leading the conference in eFG%. He’s averaged 15 points a game in his last eight contests.

South #3 – College of Charleston Cougars (23-7, 15-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.067

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (1^st Round)

The Cougars are the fourth favorite for the tournament title, and twice fought Davidson down to the final possession, including causing the Wildcats’ first conference loss in early February. They feature the conference’s best offense, hitting shots well inside and outside, and rarely giving up the ball. Charleston’s defense has only been average, and its weak spot has been rebounding, as opponents have managed to get back a lot of their own misses. With the Cougars forcing few turnovers, this has meant a lot of chances for opposing teams to score.

Players to watch:

6-1 SO Andrew Goudelock, 16.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 56.3 eFG% - Goudelock is the conference’s best free throw shooter at 89%, and is also pretty good from behind the arc, where he earns a lot of points.

6-8 SR Dustin Scott, 9.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 55.5 eFG% - Scott’s best contributions come on the defensive end, where he leads the Cougars in both steals and blocks. He’s a very good percentage shooter, but doesn’t take a lot of shots, and he’s faced a lot of foul trouble in recent games, fouling out in 4 of his last 8.

North #4 – Appalachian St. Mountaineers (12-17, 9-11) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.002

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2000 (1^st Round)

The Mountaineers just barely finished with a positive efficiency margin, and featured a pretty solid conference offense. They are the best pure shooters in the SoCon, leading the league in free throw and three-point percentage, and get back a lot of the shots they do miss. They need to maximize these chances, as they generally lose out in the turnover battle by a wide margin, the worst in the conference in both forcing and committing them. The problem that Appalachian St. has had is that its opponents make a lot of shots, and while it is as good on the defensive glass as the offensive glass, it doesn’t force enough misses to really take advantage.

Players to watch:

6-1 JR Kellen Brand, 15.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 57.7 eFG% - Brand is one of a pair of quality long-distance threats, shooting over 40% from behind the arc, but his contributions in the other parts of the boxscore are fairly limited.

6-10 SO Issac Butts, 8.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 58.9 eFG% - Butts doesn’t have a huge role in the offense, but he’s pretty much what you want out of a big guy, a high percentage scorer who dominates the boards. He hasn’t played that much in recent weeks, but has had some big games, including 12-and-10 against Chattanooga.

South #4 – Wofford Terriers (16-13, 12-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.019

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Wofford is the last of the teams in the top 8 of the conference; after it, there is a large drop-off to the teams in the league basement. It’s had a pretty good offensive showing, making a fair number of its threes, avoiding turnovers, and doing well on the offensive glass. The Terriers’ problem has been defensive, especially from behind the arc, where opponents have shot 39%.

Players to watch:

6-6 SO Noah Dahlman, 17.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 61.1 eFG% - Dahlman is one of the SoCon’s most efficient players, as he does a lot of things really well, an over 60% shooter who is an excellent offensive rebounder and has committed just 37 turnovers all season.

6-2 JR Junior Salters, 15.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 54.4 eFG% - Salters is a good three-point shooter who has seen his scoring numbers drop over the month of February, and will need to find some form if Wofford is to make any noise in the tourney.

North #5 – Elon Phoenix (10-19, 7-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.083

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

All of the teams from here and below have averaged less than a point-per-possession offensively, and all are underdogs in their opening round games. Elon is the best of these teams, as it has an above-average defense, holding opponents to a fairly low percentage from behind the arc and forcing a lot of turnovers. The Phoenix have needed this defense to be good, as they’ve had the conference’s second worst offense, shooting just 43% from the field and not being able to get their misses back very often, resulting in a lot of one-and-done possessions.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Ola Atoyebi, 14.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 57.3 eFG% - Atoyebi leads the Phoenix in both points and rebounds, and is an is an excellent shooter who takes a large role in the offense.

6-5 SR Brett James, 13.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 46.4 eFG% - James is an impressive defensive player, leading the team in both blocks and steals, but his relatively poor shooting, including just 30% on three-pointers, holds back his offensive game.

South #5 – Georgia Southern Eagles (8-21, 5-15) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.108

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1992 (1^st Round)

Georgia Southern seemed to be going pretty well when it was 5-4 in conference in the final week of January, but totally lost its way from then on, losing 11 straight games to finish just one game out of a tie for last place. The Eagles have fallen this far because of their conference-worst defense, which has been one of the country’s worst in several areas, allowing opponents to shoot 38% on threes and 52% on twos, and getting very few defensive rebounds. Their offense has been better, but still not particularly good, below average in pretty much every statistical category.

Players to watch:

5-10 FR Ben Drayton, 11.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 57.0 eFG% - Drayton has been an excellent three-point shooter, over 50% from behind the arc, and while he hasn’t taken a huge number of them, he’s made enough to raise his efficiency. Drayton’s scoring average is somewhat dampened by his start, in which he played little; in the last month he’s averaged more than 17 points a game.

6-2 JR Antonio Hanson, 11.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 53.2 eFG% - Hanson hasn’t shot as good a percentage as Drayson, but he’s taken more threes than anyone else on the team, and made nearly 40% of them. His only real contribution is with his shot, so when he can’t get it to fall, he’s pretty much invisible statistically.

North #6 – NC Greensboro Spartans (5-24, 4-16) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.114

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (1^st Round)

Only Georgia Southern has defended worse than the Spartans in the SoCon this year, despite the fact that Greensboro has been better than average at defending shots. The problem for Greensboro has been limiting the number of chances its opponents get; it rarely gets opponents to turn the ball over, and picks up relatively few of its opponents’ misses. The Spartans have also struggled on the offensive side of the ball, sitting second to last in the conference in shooting on both three-pointers and two-pointers.

Players to watch:

6-5 JR Ben Stywall, 11.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 52.5 eFG% - Stywall is one of the SoCon’s better rebounders, and is pretty efficient on the offensive end, shooting 52% from the field and getting to the free throw line a lot. His 59% shooting at the stripe is a drop-off from previous seasons and an area he needs to improve.

6-4 JR Mikko Koivisto, 12.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 50.5 eFG% - The Vantaa, Finland native is the only major three-point shooting threat on the Spartans, and the team’s leading scorer, though he tends to be inconsistent.

South #6 – Furman Paladins (6-23, 4-16) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.146

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1980 (1^st Round)

Furman is the weakest team in the Southern Conference, with two of its six wins on the season coming against non-D1 opponents. It is the conference’s worst shooting team, barely managing to crack 40% from the field, and is one of the SoCon’s worst teams at committing turnovers. Defensively, they’ve been pretty weak inside, and while they’ve done a decent job of forcing turnovers, they just haven’t been good enough to cover for their offensive woes.

Players to watch:

6-2 SO Jordan Miller, 13.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 42.0 eFG% - Miller takes a lot of the Paladins’ shots, and is the team’s leading scorer, but his percentages are weak, especially his sub-40% two-point shooting.

6-5 SO Bryson Barnes, 8.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 48.5 eFG% - Barnes has only started 10 games, but leads the team in both rebounding and shot-blocks, and is a decent inside scorer. He’s increased his role in recent games, averaging 12 points in his last six games.

My statistical all-Southern team:

Davidson JR G Stephen Curry, 28.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.6 SPG, 55.1 eFG%

Chattanooga SR G Stephen McDowell, 18.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 58.9 eFG%

The Citadel SO G Cameron Wells, 15.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 49.0 eFG%

Wofford SO F Noah Dahlman, 17.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 61.1 eFG%

The Citadel SR F/C Demetrius Nelson, 16.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 59.3 eFG%

SoCo Awards: Curry Player of the Year & More

Press Release — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:19:54 -0800

2008-09 All-Conference
Kellen Brand, Appalachian State
Stephen Curry, Davidson
Noah Dahlman, Wofford
Nicchaeus Doaks, Chattanooga
Andrew Goudelock, College of Charleston
Andrew Lovedale, Davidson
Stephen McDowell, Chattanooga
Harouna Mutombo, Western Carolina
Demetrius Nelson, The Citadel
Cameron Wells, The Citadel

All-Freshman Team
John Brown, The Citadel
Ben Drayton III, Georgia Southern
Damian Eargle, UNC Greensboro
Harouna Mutombo, Western Carolina
Brad Loesing, Wofford

Freshman of the Year
Harouna Mutombo, Western Carolina

Defensive Player of the Year
Max Paulhus Gosselin, Davidson

Player of the Year
Stephen Curry, Davidson

Coach of the Year
Ed Conroy, The Citadel

- The league’s men’s basketball coaches voted on the All-Conference and All-Freshmen teams.

College Basketball: 20 Random Observations..

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 19:17:01 -0800

20 Random Rants, Thoughts, and Observations from the Week in college basketball by CollegeHoops.net Editor Shawn Siegel:

1 - So if beating #1 makes you go from a nobody to a somebody, does BC go back to being a nobody after losing to the 199th (RPI) team at home? (or were they just somewhere in the middle the whole time).

2 - Forgotten because of BC's loss to Harvard, there was another big ACC upset last night. Maryland lost to in-state MEAC opponent Morgan State. The Bears had never beaten Maryland in their history. Todd Bozeman has done a great job there.

3 - Morgan State's win pushed the MEAC to 28th in the RPI. This might not sound like much, but its been years since the MEAC didn't finish in the bottom two along with the SWAC.

4 - Jake Kelly apparently doesn't have a very good internal clock. In a close game against Minnesota, the Iowa soph heaved up a half-court shot even though there was almost 3 seconds remaining. It was so much time that the missed ball bounced all the way back to the 3-pt line, and Iowa almost got off another shot.

5 - Western Carolina was one of the worst teams in the country last year.. RPI of 291. But thanks in large part due to the play of freshman Harouna Mutumbo, the Catamounts are 7-5, and 2-0 in Southern Conference play. Tonight, he had his best game yet with 29 points and 8 boards in a win over struggling UNCG.

6 - If your girlfriend, or wife, or mother, or any female asks you to see Marley and Me.. simply refuse. No matter what.

7 - I don't see Ernie Kent lasting beyond this season.

8 - If you haven't noticed, Oregon State has won 5 of 6 games. Yes, Oregon State. And they've beaten teams I've actually heard of in that stretch. Kudos.

9 - Northwestern's come back down to Earth, now having lost 4 of 5, including their first 3 Big Ten games. Unless they can show some toughness knocking off Purdue or Minnesota at home next week, mark down the Wildcats for another 4 or 5 win league record.

10 - In a battle of potential America East champs, Binghamton knocked off Vermont in OT. The Bearcats were led by 29 points from DJ Rivera.. who was written up this afternoon by our own Rob Carpentier. Despite the loss, Vermont is still my pick to win the league.

11 - Florid'a brought in a lot of big name recruits over the last few seasons, but without Nick Calathes, they'd be going nowhere.

12 - BJ Mullens is only averaging 17.8 mpg, but outside of Blake Griffin, I'd probably pick him over any other college player out there.

13 - Perhaps Matta is bringing Mullens along slowly because he's tired of so many kids leaving early..

14 - Oral Roberts struggled to a 2-10 record in non-conference play.. but is now 3-1 in league play. The Golden Eagles played a brutal schedule to start the season, almost entirely on the road, but are better than their record suggests. They face a big lithmus test this weekend against favorite Oakland.

15 - Despite Harvard's nice win over BC, Cornell is still the clear favorite in the Ivy. Louis Dale is just starting to get healthy, and with him at full strength, look out.

16 - If you didn't notice, and its okay if you didn't, one of the few remaining unbeaten teams fell this week. Illinois State lost a 4-point decision to Bradley. The Braves are now the MVC's lone team without a loss.

17 - Not going to lie, I have no clue who Johnny Moran is. But the UNI freshman put up 22 points on 6-8 shooting from three, and even added 8 boards, in the Panthers upset over MVC favorite Creighton. He's certainly a player I/we need to keep an eye on.

18 - LSU.. 12-0 at home, 0-2 on the road with an average deficit of 20.5 points. Lame.

19 - Craig Brackins was one of the bigger names in last year's freshman class.. but the ISU big man never lived up the hype. This year Brackins is averaging 18.3 ppg and 8.5 boards, the numbers the experts expected.

20 - Nothing new here.. but how bout them Hogs?

That's all for now.. post your thoughts below. Happy hooping!

Southern Conference Basketball Preview: 08-09

CHN — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 09:38:50 -0800

Conference Rank: 17th

10 year average: 19th

Southern Conference Page

All-Southern Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Stephen Curry	Davidson	Jr
G	Donald Sims	Appalachian St	So
G	Tony White	Charleston	Jr
F	Nicchaeus Doaks	Chattanooga	Sr
F	Jermaine Johnson	Charleston	Sr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
CHN All-Americans Stephen Curry Mid-Major All-Americans Stephen Curry* *Mid-Major POY		Points: Stephen Curry 25.1 Rebounds: Jermaine Johnson 8.5 Assists: Cameron Wells (Citadel) 3.8

Southern Conference Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

40	Davidson	Southern	1	NCAA
116	Appalachian St	Southern	2
141	Charleston	Southern	3
169	Chattanooga	Southern	4
205	Georgia Southern	Southern	5
216	UNC Greensboro	Southern	6
239	Furman	Southern	7
269	Elon	Southern	8
278	Wofford	Southern	9
292	Samford	Southern	10
293	Western Carolina	Southern	11
324	Citadel	Southern	12

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the SoCo? (soon)

Other Southern Content

Conference Media/Coaches Poll

Other

Rise & Fall: Patriot

Top SG's: Stephen Curry

Top Non-BCS Players: Stephen Curry