Wisconsin

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:25:26 -0700

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

Syracuse vs Wisconsin: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 08:17:31 -0700

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin: East Region

Records

Syracuse 33-2, 17-1, Big East (Regular-season conference champions; At large)

Wisconsin 26-9, 12-6 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: TD Garden in Boston

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (6) Cincinnati, Sunday

Tournament Results

Syracuse def. UNC-Asheville, 72-65; def. Kansas State, 75-59

Wisconsin def. Montana, 73-49; def. Vanderbilt, 60-57

Rankings

Syracuse No. 2 AP; No. 2 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Wisconsin No. 14 AP; No. 13 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Syracuse 1

Wisconsin 15

Line: Syracuse -3½ (O/U 121)

Players to Watch

Syracuse: F Kris Joseph, 6-7 Sr. (13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.3 spg); G Dion Waiters, 6-4 So. (12.7 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.9 spg); G Scoop Jardine, 6-2 Sr. (8.6 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.4 spg). Jardine was spectacular in Saturday’s win, knocking down all three of his 3-point shots, handing out eight assists and grabbing five boards. He was 5-for-9 from the field overall and has 27 points, 15 assists, seven rebounds and three steals through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Wisconsin: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14.7 ppg, 4 apg, 3.8 rpg); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (11.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 apg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.3 ppg, 5 rpg, 35.6% 3s). Evans had a solid all-around game with 11 points, five rebounds and four assists in the win over Vandy. He also had a key rebound and hit a key free throw with 2.1 seconds left to help the Badgers secure their spot in the Sweet 16.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Syracuse: The Orange seemed to find their way without suspended C Fab Melo in the second half of their win against Kansas State. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim seemed to come to the understanding that he’s not going to replace Melo in the middle, so they used smaller lineups to pressure the Wildcat guards and use more of a perimeter offense with sophomore James Southerland more in the mix. Cuse forced 13 turnovers, shot 6-of-9 from behind the 3-point line and Southerland went for 15 points, six rebounds and three blocked shots. The Orange do a lot of things well, including 9.4 steals per game and a 1.49-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio – and no team has better depth than the Orange.

Wisconsin: The Badger defense was incredible all season, and never more so than in Saturday’s win over Vandy. Wisconsin held the Commodores’ talented duo of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor to 22 points combined, nearly 15 points below their combined average. Few teams play better team defense than do the Badgers. They hold opponents to a nation-best 52.9 points per game. Teams have managed to shoot just 38.5 percent from the floor and 28.8 percent from the field, including allowing Vandy – one of the nation’s best 3-point shooting teams – to 5-for-19 from behind the arc. Taylor is one of the nation’s best floor leaders and is a solid go-to option with the game on the line.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Syracuse: Cuse did a nice job rebounding without Melo against a bigger K-State team, but it was still out-boarded 37-31 and allowed the Wildcats 22 offensive rebounds. That could be a big issue against a tough Badger squad. Without Melo, the Orange paint defense is limited, although they held K-State to 21-of-67 shooting on Saturday. They have allowed opponents to get to the foul line 585 times this season, another potential bad sign against Wisconsin, which has shot 563 itself.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have always won with defense, but this year’s Wisconsin team is particularly limited offensively. Even in a Round of 32 win over Vanderbilt, it managed to hit just 23-of-55 shots and 10-of-33 3-pointers. For the season, Wisconsin scores just 64 points per game and has scored 62 points or fewer in 18 of its last 35 games. For the season, the Badgers make just 42.5 percent of their shots from the field. They are also limited athletically. Against one of the nation’s most athletic and quickest teams, that will be a concern.

The Bottom Line: Jardine and Southerland star again as Syracuse pulls away late.

The Pick: Syracuse 69, Wisconsin 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 21:39:08 -0700

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.

Poll: Which Remaining #4 Seed Has Best Chance to Advance?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 08:04:04 -0700

Wisconsin vs Vanderbilt: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 14:09:55 -0700

(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Vanderbilt: East Region

Records

Wisconsin 25-9, 12-6 Big Ten (At large)

Vanderbilt 25-10, 10-6 SEC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 6:10 p.m. Saturday

TV: TNT

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

First round results

Wisconsin def. Montana, 73-49

Vanderbilt def. Harvard, 79-70

Winner will face: (1) Syracuse or (8) Kansas State, Thursday in Boston

Rankings

Wisconsin No. 14 AP; No. 13 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Vanderbilt No. 20 AP; No. 24 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Vanderbilt 20

Wisconsin 21

Line: Vanderbilt -1 (O/U 120)

Players to Watch

Wisconsin: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14.7 ppg, 4 apg, 3.7 rpg); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 apg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 36.9% 3s). Berggren blocked seven shots in Thursday’s win over Montana after a previous career-high of five. He also added five points and three rebounds.

Vanderbilt: G John Jenkins, 6-4 Jr. (19.9 ppg, 47.8% FG, 44.8% 3s); F Jeffery Taylor, 6-7 Sr. (16.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 49.9% FG); C Festus Ezeli, 6-11 Sr. (10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2 bpg). Jenkins brought his A-game to the tournament. He had his best scoring outburst in almost a month with a 27-point outing Thursday. He hit 7-of-12 from the field, including 3-of-8 from 3, and he made 10 of his 13 free throw attempts.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Wisconsin: The Badgers were really impressive against the Big Sky champions Thursday. They allowed Montana only 20 second-half points, went 17-for-19 from the foul line, had a 32-19 rebound advantage, blocked eight shots and assisted on 15 of their 23 field goal attempts. Wisconsin had the nation’s best scoring defense, allowing 52.9 points per game and holding opponents to 29.8 percent and only 3.5 makes from behind the 3-point line. That will be vital against the hot-shooting Commodores. The Badgers’ nine turnovers per game is second-fewest in the country.

Vanderbilt: Since struggling early, the Commodores have won eight of their last 10 games and they knocked off No. 1 Kentucky to win the SEC championship. On Thursday, Vandy hit 25 of its 46 field goal attempts, including 8-of-10 from 3. The Commodores also out-rebounded Harvard 35-22, including 10 offensive boards. For the season, they made 294 3-pointers, the fourth-best rate in the country and made 38.9 percent of them, which is 25^th-best nationally. Vandy scores 35.6 percent of its points from behind the 3-point and scores 1.1 points per possession. Vandy also plays excellent field goal defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 41.8 percent overall and 30.7 from deep. The ‘Dores have held their last six opponents to 70 points or fewer.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Wisconsin: Wisconsin really struggles to score at times. The Badgers shoot just 42.4 percent from the floor. They have scored 62 points or fewer 16 times in 34 games and have shot 50 percent or better just four times in their last 30 games. Wisconsin is usually known for its rebounding, but this year’s team only out-rebounds its opponents by 2.2 per game.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores have had a tough time beating opponents’ pressure and taking care of the basketball in the halfcourt. They turn the ball over 13.2 times per game and have a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and just a plus-0.4 turnover margin. Despite having Ezeli inside, Vandy only out-rebounds opponents by 1.2 per game.

The Bottom Line: There’s not enough defense in the world to stop Jenkins, Taylor and Ezeli, and the Badgers don’t have the firepower to hang with them.

The Pick: Vanderbilt 67, Wisconsin 60

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 01:47:35 -0700

With CHN's Greg Mengelt handling previews and predictions for every game the daily preview will look a little different for the NCAA tournament, with the focus being the game of the day in each region. Below are the games on Thursday's slate that you should make time for, and with four networks (CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV) showing every game in its entirety, there's no excuse (besides a lack of TVs or laptops) for you to not have a multiple TV/computer setup in your home. Enjoy the games.

Albuquerque: (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana
2:10 PM EST; TNT

Many have gone with the Grizzlies in this one, citing the Badgers' reliance on the 3-pointer and the quality of Montana guards Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Those are indeed good reasons to go with Wayne Tinkle's team to win, not to metion Derek Selvig insde. However keep in mind that Bo Ryan is 9-1 at Wisconsin in opening games in the NCAA tournament, having won five straight.

They'll be prepared for what Montana looks to throw at them, and with an experienced leader in point guard Jordan Taylor Wisconsin will be tough to knock off. Cherry will draw that defensive assignment, and the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year is capable of getting the job done. The winner gets the winner of the Vanderbilt/Harvard matchup on Saturday, with the winner of this four-team pod off to Boston for next week's East Regional.

Rest of the day in Albuquerque
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State; 7:27 PM EST (truTV)
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Louisville: (8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
9:20 PM EST; TBS

Many have jumped to the conclusion that the Huskies will take on Kentucky on Saturday, and that's a very dangerous position to take especially if the UConn players take the same approach. At 6-9, 270 Iowa State's Royce White is the kind of player that UConn hasn't seen this season, as he runs the point and is just as good at distributing as he is at scoring himself. Roscoe Smith will iikely get the call defensively but he doesn't have the physical strength of White.

Just as important for the Huskies will be the play of their big men, led by Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi. Outside of White the Huskies have a clear edge in the paint, but that's only as effective as they make it. How well UConn defends the three will also be important as the Cyclones are a very good perimeter shooting team. Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen can both knock down shots, and Chris Babb will have the task of guarding Jeremy Lamb. This one's going to go down to the wire.

Rest of the day in Louisville
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State, 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Marquette vs. (14) BYU, 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky (TBS)

Pittsburgh: (7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia
7:20 PM EST; TNT

Arguably the most overrated aspect of this game is the fact that Pittsburgh is 90 minutes away from Morgantown. Sure the Mountaineers will likely enjoy an advantage when considering the crowd but it isn't as if natives of the Steel City are lining up to cheer on WVU. Gonzaga should (and likely will) be more concerned with senior foward Kevin Jones, who led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre' need to bring it from an effort standpoint if they're to slow Jones down.

The other key aspect of this matchup is the decision-making of West Virginia's guards, most notably Truck Bryant. If the senior's struggling in this regard then the freshmen are likely to follow suit. Kevin Pangos has been one of the best freshman guards in the country for Gonzaga, and classmate Gary Bell Jr. is also capable of breaking out. Keeping WVU off the boards is the one thing Gonzaga has to do in order to win, but that's definitely possible.

Rest of the day in Pittsburgh
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss, 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) UNC Asheville, 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (MD), 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Portland: (5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU
7:15 PM EST; CBS

There weren't too many people thrilled with this matchup, especially if you're a fan of the mid-major. Both the Shockers and Rams have the potential to reach New Orleans, but after this battle only one of them will remain in the field. VCU is going to throw their "havoc" system at Wichita State throughout, and if the Shockers are unable to handle that pressure it could be a long night in Portland. Joe Ragland was very good this season for WSU and they've got other solid options on the perimeter as well.

There are two keys for VCU: Bradford Burgess plays well, and D.J. Haley and Juvonte Reddic can combine to perform well against All-MVC center Garrett Stutz. Gregg Marshall's Shockers have enough talent and depth to handle the VCU pressure with a minimal number of turnovers, and if they can the dynamic of the game will change. Both head coaches will be hot names on the open job market during the offseason but that's of little concern to either team at this point in the season.

Rest of the day in Portland
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson, 1:40 PM EST (TBS)
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State, 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State, 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Wisconsin vs Montana: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 20:57:46 -0700

(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana: East Region

Records

Wisconsin 24-9, 12-6 Big Ten (At large)

Montana 25-6, 15-1 Big Sky (Conference Tourney Champions)

Time: 2:10 p.m. Thursday

TV: TNT

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

Winner will face: (5) Vanderbilt or (12) Harvard, Saturday

Rankings

Wisconsin No. 14 AP; No. 13 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Montana No. No. 39 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Wisconsin 22

Montana 75

Line: Wisconsin -8½ (O/U 110)

Players to Watch

Wisconsin: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14.7 ppg, 4 apg, 3.7 rpg); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 apg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 45.1% FG). As the focus of opposing defenses, Taylor was inconsistent during his season year, but he was solid at the end of the season. He scored in double-figures in the Badgers’ last five games, averaging nearly 14 points and three assists in that span.

Montana: G Will Cherry, 6-1 Jr. (16 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.4 apg); F Kareem Jamar, 6-5 So. (13.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.7 apg); F Derek Selvig, 7-0 Sr. (9.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3 apg). Selvig came up huge in the Big Sky championship game win over Weber State. He was 6-for-12 from the field with 16 points, nine rebounds and three assists as the Grizzlies took the title, 85-66.

Why Each Team is Dangerous

Wisconsin: No team plays better defense than Bo Ryan’s Badgers, who held opponents to under 38 percent from the floor (eighth-best in the country), 28.9 percent from the 3-point line (seventh nationally) and the nation’s-best 52.9 points per game. Taylor is a strong floor leader and when the Badgers are hitting 3-pointers, which they do fairly effectively, they’re nearly impossible to beat at their pace.

Montana: Montana has won 14 straight and 20 of its last 21. The Grizzlies have a pair of playmakers – Cherry and Jamar – who really make them go. Behind the duo, Montana play unselfish offense with five players who average at least 9.2 points. The Grizzlies average 13.8 assists per game. They also led the Big Sky with 7.1 steals per game, led by Cherry’s league-best 2.6. The Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year will draw the assignment on Taylor and that could make things difficult for an already-deficient Badger offense.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Wisconsin: Wisconsin’s offense has struggled much of the season. The Badgers shoot just 42.4 percent from the floor and scored just 63.9 points per game. They scored 65 points or fewer in half of their games. Depth is also an issue, with only six players averaging more than 12 minutes per game.

Montana: The Grizzlies aren’t very big and can be beaten on the boards by a bigger, strong Badger team. Their usual pace will play right into the hands of the defensive-minded Badgers. Montana has also struggled to slow 3-point shooters, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 40 percent from deep against them. The Grizzlies didn’t play a terribly tough pre-conference schedule and a loss to North Dakota and a 25-point beating by Oregon State should give Grizzly fans pause.

The Bottom Line: Wisconsin’s lack of offense will lead to the end of its season – eventually. Montana just isn’t good enough to be the team to do it.

The Pick: Wisconsin 65, Montana 56

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

Syracuse Gets a Tricky Road to New Orleans: East Region Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 08:19:37 -0700

.pdf bracket

Just like Kentucky, there was an assumption that Syracuse would find themselves on the one line regardless of what happened this weekend. And not only is that the case but Jim Boeheim's team will get the travel path expected, beginning in Pittsburgh with a trip to Boston on the horizon if they reach the Sweet 16. First up for Syracuse are the Bulldogs of UNC Asheville, who are led by Big South POY Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm. Eddie Biedenbach's club was a 16-seed last year as well, falling to another Big East team (Pittsburgh) after winning a game in Dayton.

The key for Syracuse this weekend will be to get Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph going as both played poorly in New York. Likely won't be an issue against UNC Asheville but that, along with their struggles with defensive rebounding, could be in a possible third round matchup with Kansas State. Frank Martin's Wildcats are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and their guard play has improved down the stretch as well. If Angel Rodriguez can keep the turnovers down and Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder are scoring efficiently, K-State can get to the Sweet 16.

Ohio State earned a two seed as a result of their sharing of the Big Ten regular season crown and getting to Sunday's title game, with wins over Duke and Florida helping their non-conference slate. The Buckeyes saw their season come to a painful end in the Sweet 16 last year, and despite losing some key cogs from that squad there's more than enough talent to get to New Orleans. Loyola (MD) is deep and will have the most entertaining coach in the field (Jimmy Patsos) but a third round matchup with either Gonzaga or West Virginia will likely be of more concern for Buckeye fans.

The Mountaineers have one of the nation's best players in Kevin Jones, and he's had to carry this team throughout the year. The majority of their guards are young and Truck Bryant needs to be more consistent with his decision-making if WVU is to make any kind of noise. Gonzaga finished second in the WCC and their non-conference schedule prepares them well for this time of the year. But if Elias Harris and Robert Sacre' don't answer the bell against Jones and Deniz Kilicli they may not be in Pittsburgh very long.

The three-seed is ACC tournament champion Florida State, who has defeated Duke and North Carolina twice apiece for the first time in school history. Leonard Hamilton's team is a tough group to crack defensively due to their athleticism and effort on that end of the floor, but turnovers have been a problem for much of the season. If Luke Loucks and Ian Miller take care of the basketball the Seminoles can go a long way. St. Bonaventure will counter with A-10 Player of the Year Andrew Nicholson, but the Noles may have too much depth for the Bonnies (who are a great story, by the way) in the paint.

Cincinnati and Texas has the potential to be an interesting 6/11 matchup, but outside of J'Covan Brown and Clint Chapman the Longhorns are a very young basketball team. Losing Alexis Wangmene to a broken wrist hurts in the depth department, as even though the Bearcats play small they've got depth inside led by Yancy Gates. Mick Cronin's guards will take a high number of three-pointers, and if they're falling Cincinnati can do more than win just one game.

And the East is also a region where more folks would line up to pick the five-seed as opposed to the four. Vanderbilt's the five, and despite their recent issued in the Big Dance this feels like a different group. The main reason being their SEC tournament crown, won by beating Kentucky on Sunday. Jeffery Taylor and company displayed a confidence level not seen in previous Vanderbilt teams this past weekend, and that could very well get them to New Orleans. Harvard has the depth and experience to give Vandy trouble, but with Festus Ezeli inside and sharpshooter John Jenkins also on the floor the Commodores will be tough to beat.

As for Wisconsin, the Badgers live and die by the three. Bo Ryan's team shoots just 32% from beyond the arc but scores 36% of their points by way of the shot, making it very important that Jordan Taylor and company are knocking those down at a solid clip. Enter 13-seed Montana, who allows opponents to score just 24% of their points from three. Guards Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar are two of the best in the western United States, and big man Derek Selvig has the ability to match up with Wisconsin's big men as they like to play inside or out in the swing offense.

Syracuse has a good route to New Orleans, where they won their lone national title back in 2003, from a travel standpoint. But matchup-wise there are some possible roadblocks, be it the rebounding prowess of Kansas State or the perimeter skill of a Vanderbilt. And that's just on their side of the bracket, as an Elite 8 battle with Ohio State could be an issue as well.

Winner: Syracuse

Best second round matchup: Wisconsin vs. Montana

All-Region Team
G Dion Waiters (Syracuse)
G Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin)
F Jeffery Taylor (Vanderbilt)
F Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
F Kevin Jones (West Virginia)

Tournament Poll: Most Likely 13 vs 4 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:25:18 -0700

Conference Semifinals Predictions: ACC, A10, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:48:37 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference semifinals game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (28-4, 14-2) vs. (5) North Carolina State (22-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – UNC 74-55; Feb. 21 – UNC 86-74*. RPI: UNC 3, NC State 44. Analysis: Don’t know what to make of the Henson wrist injury. Stay away from this game. If you must, take the Heels. Line: North Carolina -11. Pick: North Carolina 87, North Carolina State 74.

(2) Duke (27-5, 13-3) vs. (3) Florida State (22-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 21 – Florida State 76-73*; Feb. 23 – Duke 74-66*. RPI: Duke 4, Florida State 22. Analysis: FSU covers and could beat the Devils again. Pick: Florida State 63, Duke 59.

ATLANTIC 10 SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(4) St. Bonaventure (18-11, 10-6) vs. (8) Massachusetts (22-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 8 – UMass 76-67. RPI: UMass 71, St. Bonaventure 86. Analysis: No clue what to make of this line, but St. Bona’s Andrew Nicholson and Minutemen PG Chaz Williams are both really good. Williams is clutch. Line: St. Bonaventure -3. Pick: Massachusetts 73, St. Bonaventure 72.

(2) Saint Louis (25-6, 12-4) vs. (3) Xavier (20-11, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – Saint Louis 73-68*; Feb. 28 – Saint Louis 70-59. RPI: Saint Louis 29, Xavier 59. Analysis: The Billikens will be facing a desperate Xavier squad. They’ll pass the test. Pick: Saint Louis 68, Xavier 61.

BIG TEN SEMIFINALS: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (25-7, 13-5) vs. (4) Wisconsin (24-8, 12-6)

Tipoff: 1:40 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Michigan State 63-60*; Feb. 16 – Michigan State 69-55. RPI: Michigan State 5, Wisconsin 20. Analysis: Baffled by this line. Rob Wilson isn’t going to score 30 points again. Line: Michigan State -4. Pick: Michigan State 58, Wisconsin 48.

(2) Ohio State (26-6, 13-5) vs. (3) Michigan (24-8, 13-5)

Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 29 – Ohio State 64-49; Feb. 18 – Michigan 56-51. RPI: Ohio State 7, Michigan 10. Analysis: When the Buckeyes play well, they’re really good – and they’re playing well now. Pick: Ohio State 74, Michigan 61.

SEC SEMIFINALS: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (31-1, 16-0) vs. (4) Florida (23-9, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Kentucky 78-58; March 4 – Kentucky 74-59*. RPI: Kentucky 1, Florida 21. Analysis: After the regular-season finale, it is obvious this is a bad matchup for the Gators. Line: Kentucky -9½. Pick: Kentucky 79, Florida 66.

(3) Vanderbilt (21-10, 10-6) vs. (7) Mississippi (20-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 16 – Vanderbilt 102-76*. RPI: Vanderbilt 28, Ole Miss 48. Analysis: No contest. Pick: Vanderbilt 81, Mississippi 66.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 182-141-5