Derrick Rose

John Wall: Numbers Don't Tell The Whole Story

Paul Elkins — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:22:07 -0800

Numbers sure are convenient. As a math teacher, I use them everyday to make comparisons, draw conclusions, and make decisions. Numbers can be useful to analyze individuals and teams in basketball as well– from comparing points scored and rebounds grabbed, to considering percentages of success. Numbers, however, remain the default factor in making many important basketball decisions, like choosing All-Conference players, making draft picks, and debating which player is “better.” While numbers may be symptomatic of a player’s effectiveness, they are rarely the cause. It is the qualities that contribute to a player’s effectiveness – his influence on his team, his will to win, his unselfishness – coupled with his basketball talents, that truly distinguish a great basketball player. It is therefore essential that we look at the right numbers before jumping to any conclusions.

Case in point: Let’s take a closer look at Kentucky freshman point guard, John Wall. He has been widely regarded as the best point guard in college basketball and the consensus #1 pick in this June’s NBA draft, yet his most commonly considered numbers - 16 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds (and 4 turnovers) per game – do not garner such praise alone.

But if we take a look at some of Walls’ more important numbers, his value becomes more apparent: Heading into last Sunday’s game against Florida, Wall had played in 70 minutes of basketball that accounted for the last two minutes of regulation and overtime for his team. In those 70 minutes, he had scored 66 points, shot 62% from the field, and committed just six turnovers. If we averaged these numbers over a 40-minute game (assuming he played the whole game), Wall would have averaged 38 points and three turnovers per contest. Given the fact that Wall’s Wildcats have lost only two games all season, it is fair to say that these numbers are pretty significant.

Wall’s freshman season begs comparison to the first and only season of another precocious point guard who did not have outlandish college numbers, but who proved to be enormously effective. In 2007-08, Derrick Rose averaged under 15 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game for Memphis, while quietly being hailed as the best talent in college basketball. Sure enough, he led Memphis to within seconds of a national Championship, was drafted #1 overall in the NBA draft, and led the Chicago Bulls to an essential first-round playoff stalemate with the defending NBA-champion Boston Celtics while being named NBA Rookie of the Year.

This year, Rose is averaging over 20 points per game for the first time since high school. Couple this with his 5.8 assists per contest, and you have pretty impressive numbers for an NBA point guard.

On the other hand, Rose lost just two games in high school, two more in college, and succeeded in his first year in reaching the playoffs with his original NBA lottery franchise. To me, these numbers are even more impressive.

NBA: Top 5 Rookies

Hoopsworld — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 09:30:46 -0800

By: Joel Brigham

Today marks the beginning of a new weekly feature in which HOOPSWORLD's Joel Brigham takes a subjective glance at the league's top rookies. This group will likely fluctuate from one week to the next based on performance and momentum, but week one's analysis comes down to how well the rooks have played thus far. Take the list for what it is and post your disagreements in the comments. Now, on to this week's big winners:

#1 - Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls (8-9) – If you watched Sunday's game against the Philadelphia 76ers you know exactly why Rose is the best rookie in the league right now. His Tayshuan-Prince-esque block of Andre Miller's dunk, then subsequent killer crossover sending the veteran point guard to the floor showed his versatility. He's currently second among rookies in ppg with 18.4 and first in apg with 6.0, and he'll only continue to get better as the year goes on.

#2 - O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies (4-13) – Coming into the draft, Mayo had his doubters, but so far he's been even better than most expected. Not only is he the top scoring rookie with 21.9 ppg, but he's also the fourteenth best scorer in the entire league as of Monday afternoon. That puts him ahead of Amar'e Stoudemire, Dwight Howard, Michael Redd, Tim Duncan, and a host of other big-time names. His 4.6 rebounds a game don't hurt his stock, either.

#3 - Michael Beasley, Miami HEAT (8-9) – It may have been a slow start for the Beazer, but he seems to have settled down into a role as the HEAT's sixth man. Third amongst rookie scorers with 14.4 points per night, Beasley is only just now learning how to be effective in the NBA. He's still playing behind Shawn Marion, but if The Matrix gets moved, Beasley will be even more valuable.

#4 - Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers (12-6) – While Oden's numbers might not be as stellar as some of the other rookies in the class (8.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg) he does lead rookies in blocks per game at 1.67 per contest, and has only gotten better and better in the few games he's played. He brings so much to the Blazers in terms of having a solid center, and his value goes beyond the numbers. Just his presence in the paint has already made him one of the peskiest big men in the league.

#5 - Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies (4-13) – Any of a number of guys could've rounded out the Top Five this week, but Grizzlies center Marc Gasol pops out for now as one of the league's most impressive young bigs. He's third on his team in scoring (12.2 ppg) and his hauling down 7.1 boards a night as well. As a typical Gasol big man, he's held his own on the Grizzlies. While his brother Pau dominates in L.A., little bro Marc is just getting off the ground in Tennessee. In time, there may be a real discussion as to which one is an all-around better player.

Honorable Mention: Rudy Fernandez, D.J. Augustin, Anthony Morrow, Russell Westbrook, George Hill.

NBA:Stock Up/Down Fantasy Report

Hoopsworld — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 04:19:17 -0800

By: Tommy Beer

Okay, now let's pour over some stats and see if we can make some sense out of the NBA season thus far. Just like the real stock market, making deals where you benefit is all about timing. (Hopefully, your team won't need a billion dollar bailout.) In order to be a successful Fantasy GM, the goal is to sell a player when his value is at its peak and buy them when their value is deceptively low. Thus, let's take a look at who has seen their productivity spike, and whose value has dipped.

Stock Up:

Jason Kidd – Dallas Mavericks: Apparently, reports of Kidd's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Kidd is currently the #3 overall ranked player in nine-category fantasy leagues. While he has lost a bit off his fastball, Kidd is absolutely still a triple-double threat every single time he steps out on that court. However, although we know he'll continue to rack up copious amounts of points, rebounds, and assists; we have to assume his abnormally high shooting percentage (his career mark is 40% and he currently hitting 45.7% of his shots) and three-points makes (2.2 per game) will drop back down to earth.

Amare Stoudemire - Phoenix Suns: His stock can't really rise much higher considering he was a consensus top-4 pick, but Amare has been the game's most dominant fantasy player early on this season. Amare is making MVP noise by steamrolling through the Suns first five games. Thru Friday's games, he led the Suns in scoring, rebounding, FG%, FT%, blocks, and steals. And his monster night versus the Pacers earlier this week was legendary. Per the Elias Sports Bureau: Stoudemire led the Suns to a 113-103 win at Indiana with 49 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and five steals. Stoudemire was the first player to reach those levels in each of those four categories since the NBA started keeping track of steals (in 1973-74). Golden State's Rick Barry (64 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 5 steals) was one rebound shy of doing it in a 143-120 win over the Trail Blazers on March 26, 1974. Stoudemire made all 15 of his free-throw attempts on Wednesday night, the third time in his career that he's gone 15-for-15 or better from the line. The only active player with more such games than Stoudemire is Kobe Bryant, who's done it four times."

Marquis Daniels – Indiana Pacers: In Mike Dunleavy's absence (see below), Marquis Daniels has shone brightly. Through four contests, Daniels is playing nearly 37 minutes a night averaging a gaudy 15 point /8 rebound /3.5 assist stat line.

Andris Biedrins – Golden State Warriors: As always, there are some very interesting developments out in the land of Nellie-Ball. The most fantasy-pleasing may be the development of Andris Biedrins. Biedrins has been an absolute beast thus far – posting double-doubles in each of the Warriors first six contests. In fact, dating back to last season, AB has tallied a double-double in 13 straight games. What maybe even more impressive, is the fact that Biedrins has connected on 16 of his last 18 free-throw attempts. If he ever starts making his free-throws at even a respectable clip, watch out…

Nene – Denver Nuggets: Many have argued that Nene has always had the talent to be a beast, if he could only stay healthy. Well early on this season, Nene is proving those believers correct. He is currently averaging 15.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, while shooting 63.8 from the floor and 82.6% from the stripe! Now let's see if he can stay healthy.

Stock Down:

Leandro Barbosa – Phoenix Suns: As good as Amare has been for Phoenix, Leandro Barbosa has been just as bad. Barbosa seems lost in Terry Porter's new offense. Through his first six games, Barbosa is playing just 20 minutes and averaging just 7.7 points and 1.8 assists. Can fantasy GM's that burned a mid-round pick on him officially start calling him the "Brazilian Bust?"

David Lee – New York Knicks: What's up with D Lee? Picked by many (including myself) to be headed towards a breakout season, Lee has stumbled a bit out of the gate. Over his last three games, Lee is averaging just 8 points and 2.3 rebounds in 25 minutes of action. This is definitely not what we were expecting from the double-double machine. However, if you won Lee, stay patient. He is a hustle/energy player and he'll get back on track soon. Yes I am worried about Coach D'Antoni starting Wilson Chandler and bringing Lee off the bench, but I do view him as a buy-low candidate right now, if you feel like doing some barging shopping…

Mike Dunleavy – Indian Pacers: It is officially time to really start worrying about Dunleavy. He played only 12 minutes of one preseason game, but the Pacers seemed to downplay his knee troubles back in October. But here we are now, nearly two weeks into the season, and there is still no sign of Lil' Dun. And according to this article, Dunleavy doesn't know when he'll return. "The Pacers are still calling Dunleavy's injury tendonitis, but coach Jim O'Brien said the tendon is unique because "some of it has turned into a bone spur." "It's not settling down as much as we would have liked it to," O'Brien said." This is not good news…

Most of the Chicago Bulls Roster: Other than Derrick Rose, who is off to a phenomenal start, there are a lot of ugly stat lines in Chicago. Let's run down the list: Mainly because Rose has played so well, Kirk Hinrich has rendered relatively irrelevant. Captain Kirk is playing less than 25 minutes a night has scored a total of 11 points over the Bulls last three games… Pegged by many as a solid sleeper candidate coming into this season, Tyrus Thomas has been largely disappointing. He shows periodic flashes of brilliance, but they just seem like teases. On the season Thomas is averaging just 8.5 points and shooting a horrific 30% from the floor… In the HOOPSWORLD preview content, I had been hyping Luol Deng as an undervalued, potential stud. But Deng has not been able to find a comfort zone yet this season and has struggled out of the gates, averaging a disappointing 12.2 PPG on 37% shooting thru the Bulls first six games. However, in contrast to Ty Thomas and Hinrich, I am still a believer in Deng. I think he makes a fine 'buy-low' guy right now.
[Update: Bulls guard Kirk Hinrich may miss three months after an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament of his right thumb, according to the team. The injury will require surgery, which will be performed on Tuesday, Nov. 11 at Rush University Medical Center. He left Friday's game against Cleveland in the third quarter with the thumb injury. Hinrich may be out as long as 12 weeks following his surgery, the team said in a prepared release.]

Anthony Carter – Denver Nuggets: Carter was playing well and putting up terrific numbers as the Nuggets only true point guard. But with Billups now in Denver, Carter will be a non-factor in most fantasy leagues.

NBA: Rookie of the Year Talk

Hoopsworld — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 06:04:33 -0800

By: Bill Ingram

Blow Up the Wizards

It's amazing how patient the Washington Wizards have been. Whether it's ownership, management, or coaching staff, the Wizards organization has been fairly quiet as they wait for the day when all of their high-dollar stars finally take the court together.

For the third season in a row we have the same storyline dominating pre-season predictions for the Wizards:

"If this team can ever get healthy they could be the best team in the Eastern Conference."

Last season Antawn Jamison was the only star consistently healthy for the Wizards. Caron Butler appeared in only 58 games, while Gilbert Arenas missed all but 13 games of the season. In 2006-07, Arenas actually led the Big Three with 74 games played, while Jamison logged 70 and Butler 63. Clearly those numbers are headed in the wrong direction, and it's finally starting to get to head coach Eddie Jordan.

"That was not NBA basketball out there, it's as simple as that," Jordan said after his team coughed up an overtime loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. "There were no NBA plays being made out there. We addressed them tonight in the locker room, so I'm going to put a careful eye on our personnel and what we're doing out there. I think the trend is telling me something. I'm trying to be loyal to NBA vets and the continuity theme but I'm growing very impatient with it."

What we're starting to see, unfortunately, is the final stages of the Washington Wizards as currently constructed. Even if you're not a Wizards fan you have to feel for their predicament. You go out and get amazing talent, lock them up long-term, and then never get a chance to see them play together when the games matter most.

Eddie JOrdan and his team have been amazingly patient with the injury process, but at some point you get tired of excuses and start making changes that will put 'W's on the board. It sounds like the Wizards are just about there.

Speaking of Rookie of the Year

In today's Morning Report, Steve Kyler began the Rookie of the Year discussion. Steve's early list includes Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Jason Thompson, Michael Beasley, and Rudy Fernandez, and while those are all great names, there's someone you shouldn't sleep on.

He's not putting up "amazing" numbers yet, but in each of the Milwaukee Bucks' three games second round pick Luc Mbah a Moute has shown marked improvement. He scored nine points (4-7 FG) in 19 minutes against the Raptors on opening night, posted a double double (11 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals) in 35 minutes against the New York Knicks in their second game, and last night he dropped 17 points and six rebounds on the Wizards, including a couple of huge plays down the stretch. He also nearly hit the game-winner before overtime.

It's early, and there are a lot of names ahead of Luc Mbah a Moute's . . .names easier to say and spell . . .but he's definitely showing us early that he's someone to keep an eye on. There are very few expectations being put on the Bucks, which could mean an ideal situation for a young player to burst onto the NBA scene.

NBA: Derrick Rose a Backup?

Hoopsworld — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 09:10:48 -0700

By: Joel Brigham

If Larry Hughes hadn't banged up his knuckles in practice late last week, it's probable that he would've ousted top rookie Derrick Rose from the starting lineup while new head coach Vinny Del Negro tinkered with different combinations of players.

There is, however, something to be said for getting a young player learning a new system as many minutes as possible in the preseason before the losses actually count. Also, why plunk a potential superstar on the bench when so much has been invested in him as the future of the franchise?

Rose himself is taking everything in stride, unsurprising considering his humble demeanor, saying, "I don't need to start, but I'd like to.

"It gets me ready for the future," he continues. "Even if I do come off the bench, I'm learning from my veterans. They help me a lot because they know so much more about than I do because I just came in this league. Either way, it helps me."

His veterans include Drew Gooden, who's played for four different teams and a number of different point guards. "The rookie year is a rollercoaster ride," admits Gooden. "You're going to have a lot of ups and downs whether you're starting or coming off the bench. It's just a learning experience altogether… Derrick doesn't need to put any added pressure on himself; he's doing a great job."

"Point guard is the toughest position to pick up," says sixth-year Bulls point guard Kirk Hinrich in reference to his own struggles as a rookie. "It's a different game. I feel like he's done a good job of it so far, but it's a huge adjustment."

First-year Bulls head coach Vinny Del Negro corroborates Hinrich's claim that point guard is the toughest to learn as a rookie. "[Rose] is young, and Deron Williams in his first year, it took him a little while to get accustomed the NBA. The point guard position is the toughest one to learn… Some guys adapt quicker than others, but I think Derrick will adapt very quick because of his personality and his work ethic. But it does take time."

"I'm still learning," Rose admits. "Like I always say about (the University of) Memphis when I was there, I was averaging like five or six turnovers a game earlier on in the year, but once I got comfortable with the offense and my teammates, everything was smooth. It's going to take a while, but I've just got to wait."

Hinrich, however, doesn't think that wait will take too long. "He's going to be a great player. He's talented, he's willing to learn. We all believe he's going to be a great player in this league, and a lot sooner than later."

Whether or not Rose starts for the rest of the preseason is still in question, but one thing is for sure: in the long-term, Larry Hughes doesn't stand a chance against the promise of Derrick Rose. It's all just a matter of how quickly Del Negro wants to plug his rookie point guard into that permanent role of starter.

NBA: Top Preseason Rookies

Hoopsworld — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 09:11:30 -0700

By: Travis Heath

Preseason is what it is. Win and losses really do not matter. However, preseason games do give the masses a chance to see the first glance of the stars of tomorrow. Here's a look at some of the rookies who have performed well thus far during the league's version of a dress rehearsal.

Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers

It took a year longer than most fans had hoped, but Oden has finally taken the NBA hardwood. The big-man from Ohio State hasn't disappointed, either. His physical size alone has made him a factor. This much is clear so far: If my man gets near the rim, he's going to try and rip it off. Defensively, he's also going to block a heck of a lot of shots this season, too. Just think what Oden will be capable of when he gets into "game shape." He will be a factor for the Blazers this season. When he gets a fully refined offensive game a couple of years down the road, he may evolve into the best big-man in the game.

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

Yes, Rose looked nervous early during his first action in his hometown of Chicago last week and turned the ball over a few too many times. Of course, it would have helped if his teammates had caught a pass or two. This kid is a big, strong point guard who will be able to get into the lane whenever he wants to. He looks a lot like Deron Williams out on the floor but with better springs. Chicago won't regret taking Rose. This kid has a chance to be a factor for the Bulls for the next decade-plus.

Michael Beasley, Miami HEAT

Everyone knew the Beazer could play, and he's done just that during the preseason. His ability to score inside and out will help him be effective right out of the gate. He's the kind of kid who can score 20 points without even trying. When he's focused, he's shown the ability to be very good on the boards, as well. Miami has been bringing Beasley off the bench so far this preseason, but it will be hard to keep him out of the starting lineup if he continues to score the basketball like he has been. If he commits to defending and keeps his head right, Beasley has the chance to be special.

O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies

There's something about this kid that just screams professional. He's already started taking on a leadership role and is fiercely competitive. His outside jumper has been questioned by some, but given his work-ethic one would have to believe it's only a matter of time until he becomes a legitimate deep threat from behind the NBA three-point line. And just for the record, Mayo hit six three-point shots in a game on Monday night and is shooting over 36% from beyond the arc in the preseason. At just 6-foot-4, there will be nights where Mayo will get taken advantage of on the defensive end by some of the league's bigger shooting guards. However, he'll become a more crafty defender over time as he gains more experience. Mayo no doubt has All-Star potential.

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

No, Love hasn't been the most athletic or physically talented rookie this preseason. However, he has been solid and smart. There will be moments this season like the one in last Friday's preseason game in Denver where he gets embarrassed by athletic veterans like Kenyon Martin. There will also be moments where he throws a great pass from the high-post down to Jefferson in the low-post or where he stretches the defense with his outside shooting ability that leave Wolves' fans optimistic about what the future might hold. His ability to position rebound and throw quick pinpoint outlet passes might not make the highlight reel, but these skills will certainly benefit his team.

Robin Lopez, Phoenix Suns

This is probably not the Lopez many readers were expecting to see on this list, but his defense and hustle have raised eyebrows in the preseason. His brother Brook may have a more refined offensive game, but Robin's energy has been hard to ignore. He's relentless on the offensive glass and a deceptive shot-blocker on the other end. He likely won't ever be a superstar, but he'll be just the kind of hard-nosed energy player every championship-caliber team has to have.

Rudy Fernandez, Portland Trail Blazers

Okay, so Fernandez got injured early in the preseason. But what we saw left us yearning for more. The first thing fans are likely going to do when watching this kid play is check to make sure they didn't accidentally hit the fast-forward button on their Tivo remote; dude is in a perpetual state of motion on the court. His high basketball IQ combined with his flare for the dramatic will make him an instant fan favorite in the Rose City. This guy has a chance to be the next major international superstar in the Association.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Westbrook was a somewhat risky pick by GM Sam Presti. Like Rose, Westbrook has had his ups and downs this preseason. Such is life in the NBA as a rookie point guard. However, his physical prowess and defensive effort and instincts have to excite the Oklahoma City faithful. And don't take it from your friendly neighborhood columnist, either. Check out what former UCLA teammate Kevin Love told HOOPSWORLD about Westbrook after getting a chance to compete against him in the preseason. "He looked great the other night. I'm not just saying that because that's my boy, either. His change of direction, how fast he was, the way he can run the point and how he passed the other day... he looked great. The one question-mark about him has been his shooting, but I've seen him shoot at practice. If he can shoot when the lights come on as well as he does in practice, he's going to be a star player."